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Nebraska Legislature Election 2014

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DanClrk51:
We may have some really good chances of getting a better legislature for 2015 than for the last two years. Here's why:

As you all know Republicans are as a general rule gun friendly and Democrats are not. I think we can gain up to 6 senate seats for the Nebraska Unicameral this election. Of these 6, two are certain to flip from Democrat to Republican, another is quite likely to flip, and the other three present good opportunities.

Also most of the Republican held seats seem to all be safe seats. There is only one seat that we are in danger of losing and that is in District 3 where there is a special election for Senator Scott Price's seat and it is currently held by Sen. Tommy Garrett who was appointed by Gov Dave Heinemann to fill the spot after Price resigned. Garrett is running against Carol Blood who has name recognition in this district which covers a good part of the city of Bellevue where she held a city council seat.

Here's a look at the seats up for grabs:

District 8: Democrat Senator Burke Harr (also on the judiciary committee) is running for re-election. His showing in the primary was weak against the only candidate, Republican Gwenn Aspen who he will face again in the General Election. Aspen had 2,183 votes and Harr had 2,076 votes.

District 12: Democrat Senator Steve Lathrop (judiciary committee) is retiring due to term limits. This is an open seat and 3 candidates were on the primary ballot Republican Merv Riepe received 2,468 votes and Republican Joseph Hering received 428 votes while Democrat Greg Hosch only received 1,298 votes. If those dynamics don't change much in the general we should be able to pick this one off.

District 20: Democrat Senator Brad Ashford (judiciary committee) is retiring due to term limits. He's also running for Congress against Lee Terry. So this is an open seat. The primary had 2 Republicans and one Democrat. Republican John S. McCollister received 3,389 votes and Republican Laura Baumgartner received 1,232 votes, Democrat Matt Lathrop, who I believe is Steve Lathrop's son received 2,227 votes. McCollister faces Lathrop in the General election. If those dynamics don't change that much McCollister should be able to snag this one for us.

District 30: Democrat Sen. Norm Wallman is retiring due to term limits. This seat is guaranteed to flip as there are two Republicans in the general election and no Democrat on the ballot. Republicans Roy Baker and Bob Tiemann will vie for this seat on Nov. 4th.

District 32: Democrat Sen. Russ Karpisek is retiring due to term limits. This seat was formerly held by Sen. Jeanne Combs who gave us the Concealed Handgun Permit Act. The primary had only two candidates: Republican Laura Ebke received 4,401 votes and Democrat Phil Hardenburger received 3,576 votes. Both face each other again in the general election. I would say this seat is likely to flip but nothing is set in stone.

District 34: Democrat Sen. Annette Dubas is not seeking re-election due to term limits. This seat is the other seat that is guaranteed to flip as there was only one candidate on the ballot in the primary and there will be only one in the general. That candidate is Republican Curt Friesen.

These assessments are of course based on my opinion and I do realize that the General Election brings lots more voters than the primary so its definitely possible we don't get to pick off some of these seats but I remain hopeful. Thanks for reading!

DanClrk51:
Sadly we'll be losing good incumbents like Sen. Mark Christensen, Sen. Scott Lautenbaugh and Sen. Pete Pirsch. Hat's off to them for their commitment to the 2nd Amendment.

RLMoeller:
One big key is voter turnout.   I heard yesterday that the number of democrats that have voted early is much higher than republicans and independents.  I'm not sure what to make of that information.  Perhaps democrats are less likely to show up the day of and like to vote early, where everyone else likes to vote on the day of????  Not sure.  Doesn't seem that  likely, but who knows.    Ultimately, everyone of us needs to pay attention and go vote!   Don't like your choices for some of the bigger races?  Go vote for the races that fill the seats in the legislature and other local seats.

AAllen:
First I will give you the Link to the NFOA-PAF endorsements and candidate survey's: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-ewjYfUktyHaV82UjRSYllpMzg/edit?usp=sharing

Now a little about some of the races:

Races to be concerned with

District 2:  Ron Nolte who received an F from the NRA in the primary is putting up a good fight to unseat Bill Kintner, personally I think Bill should win but my inside sources say this is a much closer race than most would think.  It is an R vs. R race but the Dems have been backing Nolte and the Reps have not gotten strong behind their incumbent, Nolte has lots of business connections in the District and has been using them to put pressure on Bill.  This is a seat we need to defend.

District 3: Tommy is doing a good job of knocking on doors and getting out there, but like you said Carol Blood is a known name and has some very progressive ties.  This is another close race and Tommy Garrett could use some support if you have a little time and can help walk a neighborhood it would be greatly appreciated.

District 4: I don't think either candidate will hurt us and neither is a strong supporter, Bob Hilkemann, is running the stronger campaign but this could go either way.

District 6: Based off the primary results Joni Craighead, who would be a great addition and do an admirable job in replacing Pete Pirsch, is the front runner.  But we need to be watching for upsets and her campaign team is running like she is 3 points down.

District 8:  I will come back to this one.

District 12: 8 years ago everyone thought that Jean Stothert had this one in the bag, she lost by 14 votes to Steve Lathrop.  This is an important race because of its position in forming Legislative Leadership (Executive Committee and Committee on Committees), Riepe (R) would support the leadership we need, while Hosch (D) most likely would not.

District 16:  Scott Japp is not really putting up a fight here and Senator Lydia Brasch should win handily, but she needs to keep working and I know we have a couple members helping her out and supporting her.

District 18:  Brent Lindstrom is not Scott Laughtenbaugh, who even though guns were not his thing when he got elected became a strong supporter, but he is not anything like J. Michael Tesar.  This is a tough race because Tesar has been recruited by the Teachers union and has been getting their financial support, between direct funds donated and those they have encouraged to be donated to him he has received over $50,000 for this race.  Based upon primary results Brent should win but little things can flip a race.

District 20: As you said McCollister has the primary lead, but turn out and little things can easily swing races.  This is one to watch closely and if you are in that district make certain you vote.

District 22:  I don't see much of a chance to unseat the incumbent here.

District 24: This was Speaker Adam's seat, this is a chance for a pick up in the overall body, I don't have a lot of detail in this race but have heard that it leans to Kolterman who has the NRA endorsement, his opponent Kirk Tesar received an F from the NRA.

District 26: Another tight race that I have heard leans slightly to Brent Smoyer, Brent was a legislative aide for Senator Laughtenbaugh and would be a strong supporter, this is the seat previously held by Amanda McGill so it could be a big pick up but with the politics in Lincoln I am not certain it will be.  If you are in Lincoln Brent could use your boots on the ground assistance.

District 28: Dallas Jones is running a hard race but Patty Pansing Brooks is well known in the area because of her civil involvement, Though I would like to think we get this seat flipped I think it is an uphill battle.  Again another seat in Lincoln where boots on the ground would be appreciated.

District 30:  Truthfully I don't know much about either of these candidates, the PAF's endorsement is completely based upon one returning a questionnaire that was not bad and the other candidate (who has the NRA endorsement) who did not.  Either candidate should be a pick up for us, not saying Senator Wallman was bad but he was not really in our corner.

District 32: Laura Ebke who won the primary should take this seat, but her opponent who will not support us is going negative and we all know that can and does sway votes.  Laura is running a straight up race and keeping to her message, if you have some time to lend a hand this is a seat we should pick up but a little assistance for the candidate goes a long way to ensuring that.

District 34: though it is uncontested I will note that I have heard good things about Curt Friesen and with him replacing Senator Dubas could be a pick up in the overall makeup of the Legislature.

District 40: Tyson Larson should win this one and he has been good for us.

Beyond this we get to the outstate races that I get little information on, but be watching I may have some coming on LD 48.

DanClrk51:
Thanks Andy, those were some very interesting insights. I was surprised by the assessment for Sen. Amanda McGill's seat leaning in Brent Smoyer's direction. That's good news.

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