General Categories > Laws and Legislation
Nebraska Legislature Election 2014
AAllen:
Now back to the LD 8 race. I have previously pointed out the Executive Committee and the Committee on Committees and need to explain those to really let everyone know how important this race is.
Everyone pretty much understands that the Committee on Committees determines who is on what committee, and the importance that has for us; and their recommendation for committee chairs also carries a lot of weight. What most people don't know is how that committee is made. Each of Nebraska's Congressional Districts will caucus at the beginning of the session and assign 4 members of it's caucus to this committee. Congressional District 3 assigns it's 4 members to make certain that the committees that deal with Ag etc. that are their primary area's of focus get the representation they need to get bills passed, these members a generally on the conservative side and party or other things don't really sway them they look for who they think will be good fair representatives. Congressional District 1 gets kind of split, because it is made up of liberal Lincoln as well as conservative rural Nebraska it's seats usually get divided between the issues.
That leaves Congressional District 2, primarily Omaha, who tends to send a very Liberal group of Senators to Lincoln, so its representation on the Committee on Committees sits in that corner. They don't try to get all the committees their way, but go after specific committees that they have targeted to control (such as the Judiciary Committee). Because they allow District 3 to get pretty much what it wants on the Ag committees it is able to pull that off, they can usually sway a middle of the ground committee member or two to vote their way on most of the assignments.
The Executive Committee which gets maid the same way has amongst its duties to assign bills to committees, which is why bills that have the word gun in them go to the liberal Judiciary Committee even if the issue would be better served in the Military and Governmental Affairs Committee that tends to lean more conservative (see LB857).
Now the true core of conservative Senators in the Legislature is in the vicinity of 17 members, these are Senator that can be trusted to vote as we would want on our bills, the number of true liberal Senators is about 14-16, leaving the rest open to going either direction (thought they lean conservative on our issue). So you can see how the make up of the second Congressional District delegation has so much sway on what we try to accomplish. Based upon the numbers and what is expected to happen we are within one or two seats of changing the way these important committees are made up.
Now the race for LD8; in the Primary Gwenn Aspen beat Burke Harr by just over 100 votes, and everyone thinks this race is within 100 votes yet today either way. Senator Harr has not been the worlds worst for us in his votes on the floor of the Legislature, or in his time on the Judiciary Committee. But because of his party support and his position on other issues he would oppose getting the leadership committees built the way we need them, and remember we are only one or two seats away from getting control of those committees. Senator Harr is not a great campaigner, in fact the Democratic Party has taken over his campaign and is dictating what he does and is raising his funds, this is simply because he does what they tell him in the Legislature. This race will be influenced by lots of outside factors, there has already been some negative campaigning in support of Burke Harr and that will increase. As Rod has pointed out there has been a large disparity in early voting with the Dems having made up their minds and voting early in larger than normal numbers, the Republicans are being slow to vote this year and there are people concerned that there will be too many that sit this one out.
What are some of the outside influences on this election that can sway several of these seats not just this one that is so close. The Congressional race between Brad Ashford and Lee Terry. Brad's attacks have hurt Lee, not in getting a huge new number of voters over to him but by encouraging people who normally would have been going out to vote for Lee to not turn out because they are frustrated with how things are going. This race is within 1/2 a point either direction and is having a major impact on the down ballot races.
Another thing pushing a stronger than normal Democrat turn out is the minimum wage initiative, there are a lot of people in Congressional District two that are thinking they need this and are getting out to vote because of it. The Democratic Candidates are tying themselves to this measure hoping to get these votes as well.
AAllen:
--- Quote from: DanClrk51 on October 10, 2014, 10:44:19 AM ---Thanks Andy, those were some very interesting insights. I was surprised by the assessment for Sen. Amanda McGill's seat leaning in Brent Smoyer's direction. That's good news.
--- End quote ---
I have heard Brent is working hard and doing the things needed to get elected, but like you I am a bit surprised of where people think things are and what the odds are.
AAllen:
Now a follow up, what does all the long posts mean. We are in a position to make a major change in the Legislature this year. One that will give us at least 2 years to get some thing accomplished. But there are a couple major hurdles to clear and the only way to do that is for everyone here to not only get out and vote but get out and support those candidates that will be supporting us.
The PAF is going to be doing something we have never done before because of the financial support you have given, and we need that to continue, but we need everyone that can to find a way to help out our candidates. They are all sending chasers, cards or letters to early voters trying to get their vote at the last minute, that takes time addressing and getting them out. The last 10 days or so they will be doing hard pushes to get the vote out, contacting voters they would expect to support them to get them to the polls, most of this is phone calls and I will be sharing some info on how you can help with some of those efforts soon.
But in the mean time contact campaigns that are close to you and see what you can do to help. It's not about raising money for the campaigns now (though there is still some of that going on) but about manpower and getting the message out, something each of us can do.
AAllen:
A good article on a couple of the key races and where the money comes from: http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/
FarmerRick:
--- Quote from: AAllen on October 10, 2014, 01:02:59 PM ---A good article on a couple of the key races and where the money comes from: http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/
--- End quote ---
The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. :(
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