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Author Topic: NFOA Raffle is on!  (Read 6864 times)

Offline Dan W

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NFOA Raffle is on!
« on: January 06, 2013, 03:16:42 PM »
Click this link for tickets    https://secure.piryx.com/donate/TlWMl9HL/NFOA/Raffle

Drawing will be Sunday Feb. 17, 2013, 4pm at Alliance Gun Show.

Winner need not be present to be eligible.

Only 1000 tickets printed, odds of winning no greater than 1 in 1000.

Raffle prize is a stripped AR-15 lower receiver, not a complete rifle. 

Winner must be able to legally own the AR-15 lower receiver, which is regulated as a firearm, and complete ATF Form 4473 transfer paperwork at Zombie Tactical in Bellevue, NE prior to taking receipt of raffle prize.

NFOA Board of Directors members and immediate family are ineligible to win. 

For additional information email: info@nebraskafirearms.org.
Dan W    NFOA Co Founder
Today, we need a nation of Minutemen, citizens who are not only prepared to take arms, but citizens who regard the preservation of freedom as the basic purpose of their daily life and who are willing to consciously work and sacrifice for that freedom.   J. F. K.

Offline RLMoeller

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2013, 02:42:22 PM »
Tickets are now available at Moeller Arms in La Vista, NE.

Offline AAllen

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2013, 03:19:26 PM »
The are also available at Netties Fine Mexican Food in Bellevue.

For folks out west be watching more sites coming soon.

Offline JTH

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2013, 03:45:40 PM »
Only 1000 tickets printed, odds of winning no greater than 1 in 1000.

No LESS than 1 in 1000.  And if you buy more tickets, your odds improve.  Think about it---drop a quick $20 for tickets, and your odds go from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 250!

And since I can't win it (dang it!) someone else might as well. 
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Offline sparky

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2013, 03:50:34 PM »
No LESS than 1 in 1000.  And if you buy more tickets, your odds improve.  Think about it---drop a quick $20 for tickets, and your odds go from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 250!

And since I can't win it (dang it!) someone else might as well. 
Soooo buying 4 tickets will increase my chances by 75%?  Something doesn't add up....Just giving you a hard time.     I will be picking some up from Rod very shortly... 
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Offline gsd

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2013, 04:12:59 PM »
Haha math is off a bit there...and I failed math.

I may snag a few for giggles, i cant finish the build i have let alone need another in the cabinet...:)
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Offline 00BUCK

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2013, 04:37:40 PM »
Each ticket would hold a 1 in 1000 chance of winning - so probability of winning goes up to 4 in 1000,  or 1 in 996. Still a very worthy cause.

Offline JTH

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2013, 04:45:19 PM »
Haha math is off a bit there...and I failed math.

I may snag a few for giggles, i cant finish the build i have let alone need another in the cabinet...:)

No, folks, I'm not kidding.  If you buy four tickets, your chances increase to one in 250. 

Seriously.  :)

Just one ticket --- one in a thousand chance.  Four tickets----one in two hundred fifty. 

Buy ten tickets and you have a one in a hundred chance of winning---AND, I'll note, these calculations are the worst the odds can be, since they might not sell all thousand of the tickets...

Think of it---if they only sell 500 of the tickets, and you bought 10 of them....you have a one-in-fifty chance of winning!

For those who still don't believe:
Probability of 4 in 1000 = 4/1000 = .004 = 1/250 = 2/500 = 4/1000

Not 1 in 996---4 out of 1000.  Or 2 out of 500.  Or 1 out of 250.  (Seriously.  I teach this stuff.)

(gsd---if you win, I'll be happy to take it off for your hands for free!  You know, to relieve you of the responsibility, since you are already busy with a build...)
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Offline JTH

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2013, 04:58:02 PM »
I can't help it.....this is what happens when you get a math/science teacher started!  (This is not my fault, you guys started this!)

Think of it this way:  The chances of rolling a "1" on a die is 1 in 6, right?  The chances of rolling a "1" or a "2" on the die is 2 in 6--but this is ALSO 1 in 3.  (Which makes sense---there are only six choices for a die roll, and we have just said two of them are good--and 2/6 = 1/3.  So, a probability of 1 in 3.)

Same for the raffle.  If you buy one ticket, your chances are 1 in 1000.  (1/1000)  If you buy two tickets, you now have a 2/1000 probability -- which since 2/1000 = 1/500, it means you have a one in 500 chance of winning. 

Four tickets:  4/1000 = 2/500 = 1/250.  So, a one in 250 chance.  You have four times as many tickets, so four times as much chance to win. 

(I almost made a graph of the probability and everything---don't make me go there!   :o )
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Offline 00BUCK

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2013, 05:12:36 PM »
No, folks, I'm not kidding.  If you buy four tickets, your chances increase to one in 250. 

Seriously.  :)

Just one ticket --- one in a thousand chance.  Four tickets----one in two hundred fifty. 

Buy ten tickets and you have a one in a hundred chance of winning---AND, I'll note, these calculations are the worst the odds can be, since they might not sell all thousand of the tickets...

Think of it---if they only sell 500 of the tickets, and you bought 10 of them....you have a one-in-fifty chance of winning!

For those who still don't believe:
Probability of 4 in 1000 = 4/1000 = .004 = 1/250 = 2/500 = 4/1000

Not 1 in 996---4 out of 1000.  Or 2 out of 500.  Or 1 out of 250.  (Seriously.  I teach this stuff.)

(gsd---if you win, I'll be happy to take it off for your hands for free!  You know, to relieve you of the responsibility, since you are already busy with a build...)
If you are looking at percentage, your math is correct but not for statistical probability, which is a whole different realm of applied mathematics. Assuming all 1000 tickets were sold each ticket maintains a 1 in 1000 chance of winning  - that is a constant no matter how many tickets you own. So that gives you 4 chances of 1 in 1000 not 1 in 250.

Offline gsd

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2013, 05:43:24 PM »
Well i guess i just increased my chances to 1 in 200. :)
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Offline JTH

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2013, 05:44:42 PM »
If you are looking at percentage, your math is correct but not for statistical probability, which is a whole different realm of applied mathematics. Assuming all 1000 tickets were sold each ticket maintains a 1 in 1000 chance of winning  - that is a constant no matter how many tickets you own. So that gives you 4 chances of 1 in 1000 not 1 in 250.

For statistical probability---4 chances in 1000 IS 1 in 250.  Given a pool of 1000 ticket stubs, four of which have your name on them---there is a 1 in 250 chance that a stub with your name on it will be chosen.

Seriously.

Again, look at the dice example.  The raffle works exactly the same way, it is merely a larger pool to start with.

If, on a die, you said "I win on a roll of 1, 2, or 3".  Each one of those choices has a 1 in 6 chance.  Three of them (3 out of 6) gives you a chance to win.  Therefore, your chance is 3/6 or 1 in 2---which is 50%.  This isn't a surprise, since 1, 2, and 3 are half of the possible sides.

(If you don't like that one, again:  you win on a roll of a die with a 1 or a 2 showing up.  Each has a 1/6 chance.  So your total chance of winning [there being a limited number of choices of results] is 2/6 or 1/3.  Which again, makes sense because you win on 1/3 of the possible faces of the die showing up.)

The raffle is the same.  If you have 4 tickets, each of which have a 1 in 1000 chance, then you have a 4 in 1000 chance of winning.  Out of the possible pool of choices (1000 of them), 4 of them will cause you to win.  4/1000 = 1/250.  Probability is 4/1000 = .004 = .4%  ---but this is the same as the probability of 1 in 250.  (Check the math.  :)  1/250 = .004

This IS statistical probability.  There is one draw out of the possible pool.  Four chances out of 1000 will cause you to win.  And you have a 1/250 chance of winning.  You are correct that each ticket only has a 1/1000 chance of winning.  However, YOUR chances of winning is the aggregate of each ticket's chances.
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Offline JTH

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2013, 05:46:11 PM »
Well i guess i just increased my chances to 1 in 200. :)

GSD bought five tickets.  Magic! 

And if you win, you are going to give it to me, right?  Since you already have a build going, plus another potential in your safe?  :)
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Offline wallace11bravo

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2013, 05:46:32 PM »
Is that in mils or MOA? Also, I think your BC might be a bit high.

Offline gsd

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2013, 07:33:21 PM »
GSD bought five tickets.  Magic! 

And if you win, you are going to give it to me, right?  Since you already have a build going, plus another potential in your safe?  :)


I doubt that.  It may be getting the special treatment.
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Offline 00BUCK

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2013, 09:09:38 PM »
For statistical probability---4 chances in 1000 IS 1 in 250.  Given a pool of 1000 ticket stubs, four of which have your name on them---there is a 1 in 250 chance that a stub with your name on it will be chosen.

Seriously.

Again, look at the dice example.  The raffle works exactly the same way, it is merely a larger pool to start with.

If, on a die, you said "I win on a roll of 1, 2, or 3".  Each one of those choices has a 1 in 6 chance.  Three of them (3 out of 6) gives you a chance to win.  Therefore, your chance is 3/6 or 1 in 2---which is 50%.  This isn't a surprise, since 1, 2, and 3 are half of the possible sides.

(If you don't like that one, again:  you win on a roll of a die with a 1 or a 2 showing up.  Each has a 1/6 chance.  So your total chance of winning [there being a limited number of choices of results] is 2/6 or 1/3.  Which again, makes sense because you win on 1/3 of the possible faces of the die showing up.)

The raffle is the same.  If you have 4 tickets, each of which have a 1 in 1000 chance, then you have a 4 in 1000 chance of winning.  Out of the possible pool of choices (1000 of them), 4 of them will cause you to win.  4/1000 = 1/250.  Probability is 4/1000 = .004 = .4%  ---but this is the same as the probability of 1 in 250.  (Check the math.  :)  1/250 = .004

This IS statistical probability.  There is one draw out of the possible pool.  Four chances out of 1000 will cause you to win.  And you have a 1/250 chance of winning.  You are correct that each ticket only has a 1/1000 chance of winning.  However, YOUR chances of winning is the aggregate of each ticket's chances.

Here is a simpler formula.
1000 tickets sold and you bought 4 of them. That leaves 996 tickets out of 1000 that aren't yours.

996 / 1000 = .996

There is a .996% chance that you will NOT win.

Inversely:
4/1000 = 2/500 = 1/250 - I'll agree there. But that is just breaking down to the lowest fraction, not finding your odds.
You MUST now divide 1 by 250 (the step you are missing) which calculates to .004 - your odds of winning.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2013, 09:24:27 PM by 00BUCK »

Offline JTH

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2013, 10:07:14 PM »
Here is a simpler formula.
1000 tickets sold and you bought 4 of them. That leaves 996 tickets out of 1000 that aren't yours.

996 / 1000 = .996

There is a .996% chance that you will NOT win.

Inversely:
4/1000 = 2/500 = 1/250 - I'll agree there. But that is just breaking down to the lowest fraction, not finding your odds.
You MUST now divide 1 by 250 (the step you are missing) which calculates to .004 - your odds of winning.


Actually, 1 in 250 ARE your odds.  (1:249) Which equates to having a 0.4% chance of winning.  Technically speaking "0.004" aren't odds because you'd need two comparative numbers for it to be odds, that is instead your "chance" of winning.  Of course, we also say you have a 1 in 250 chance of winning, so there is crossover...

Which is why your chance of NOT winning is 99.6%, not .996%.  (Your chance of not winning is indeed .996, which equates to 99.6%.)

Like I said in the beginning---your chance for winning is 1/250 (0.004).  Your odds for winning are 1 in 250.

...but you have to buy four raffle tickets first.  :)
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Offline FarmerRick

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2013, 06:30:42 AM »
Actually, 1 in 250 ARE your odds.  (1:249) Which equates to having a 0.4% chance of winning.  Technically speaking "0.004" aren't odds because you'd need two comparative numbers for it to be odds, that is instead your "chance" of winning.  Of course, we also say you have a 1 in 250 chance of winning, so there is crossover...

Which is why your chance of NOT winning is 99.6%, not .996%.  (Your chance of not winning is indeed .996, which equates to 99.6%.)

Like I said in the beginning---your chance for winning is 1/250 (0.004).  Your odds for winning are 1 in 250.

...but you have to buy four raffle tickets first.  :)

I'm glad you're not teaching math to my kids. 

There will be a maximum of 1000 tickets sold. Each ticket has a 1 in 1000 chance of winning.
Buying 4 tickets gives you a 4 in 1000 chance of winning.  Buying 4 tickets does not magically reduce the number of tickets sold to 250. 

Sheesh.   ::)
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Offline Lorimor

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2013, 07:18:30 AM »
Egads!  It's been 4 decades since my prob/stats class in HS.  :( 
"It is better to avoid than to run; better to run than to de-escalate; better to de-escalate than to fight; better to fight than to die. The very essence of self-defense is a thin list of things that might get you out alive when you are already screwed." – Rory Miller

Offline whatsit

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Re: NFOA Raffle is on!
« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2013, 07:53:57 AM »
Math fight!
Four One-thousands == One Two-hundred-fifty-iths (it's math; not English  :laugh: )
4/1000 == 1/250 == 0.004 == 0.4%
So a reduction of the fraction would indicate that 4 tickets is a 0.4% chance of winning.
5/1000 == 1/200 == 0.005 == 0.5%
So 5 tickets increases your chances to half a percent.

This is still WAY better odds than the lottery. Also, we are all nerds for caring about this. You know that, right? :P