If we're talking about "above average" criminals who truly plan their crimes and take the time to scope out the AO ... that's a pretty small percentage in my experience - maybe five or ten percent. Does that fit with your experience?
No, actually. And I don't consider these "above average" criminals, either. Lots of idiots who knock over a mini-mart step inside and look around a bit first. Lots of "area" crimes (as opposed to ones in which they pick one isolated victim) start with a member of the criminal set taking a quick look around.
Again---we aren't talking scoping out the place, going back and creating a floorplan with set tactical choices. Three guys in a car park beside a gas station, one goes in and uses the restroom while taking a look around at how many people are in there, and comes back out. One guy takes the car around to the front and parks it and stays, the other two run in, knock over the place, and run back out, then they drive off.
Doesn't take an above average criminal to do this. I would say that a large number of the criminals I've interacted with would have no problem doing this.
If so, we're talking about a relatively small chance that the relatively small percentage of the population who open carries interacts with the relatively small percentage of the criminal population who is "above average". I think we can safely say that the odds of an "above average" criminal taking and using an open carrying civilian's firearm and using it against them are lower than the odds of being struck by lightning or dying in a plane crash. Nevertheless, the results will doubtless be catastrophic. As such, it doesn't hurt to give the scenario some consideration - much like one should give consideration to the possibility of being struck by lightning.
I think that:
1) In Nebraska, the chances of any particular person needing to use a carried firearm for self-defense purposes is very, very small.
2) That possibility is made even smaller by not doing stupid things with stupid people in stupid places.
3) That possibility is made even smaller by maintaining your best awareness of the situation around you, and being smart enough to not engage and just leave when incipient altercations are about to occur.
And yet, plenty of people carry anyway---in other words, they are planning on being prepared for an incredibly low probability event.
And if we are planning on being prepared for a low probability event in the first place, it seems to me that it makes sense to make said preparation the most useful. (For the time and resources being given to it. We don't have unlimited time and money, so not everyone can go take SouthNarc's ECQC course.)
I don't consider criminals who simply look around for a minute before starting their crime as "above average," and I do know that criminals who target individuals may be deterred by the obvious presence of a weapon--but may also instead (based on the individual's actions) consider it a "free gun" depending on the circumstances. And no, I still don't consider those "above average." (Making a decision to blindside someone with a tire iron and take their gun and wallet instead of just threatening them with a knife for their wallet isn't anything incredibly difficult.)
It doesn't take a smart person to hit you. And it doesn't take a genius to decide to hit you first using surprise if you are visibly armed.
I note that I don't believe I ever said "take your gun and use it against you"--and for good reason. Unless you are a police officer (who actually do have their weapons used against them on occasion) that is incredibly rare. This, however, is separate from people potentially being targeted as a primary opponent due to carrying, or having their gun stolen from them.
Point being--given choices that raise or lower your personal risk, I'm thinking that it makes more sense to take the choices that lower your personal risk. Most of us don't carry guns as a fashion statement, we carry as part of our personal risk management plan. In my personal opinion, open carrying doesn't lower my risk at all, and draws unnecessary attention to myself. It also means that in certain specific (highly unlikely, but then again so is needing it in the first place) situations, my risk is highly increased.
Given no upside, and several avenues of potential downsides, it isn't an option I'd choose for normal daily carry.
Does that mean one should stay inside when the forecast calls for rain or whenever one doesn't carry concealed? Probably not. Then again, I'm not going to tell anyone that they need to open carry. It's a personal decision.
I'm not going to tell anyone what type of carry they can do.
And I happen to think that five people open-carrying in a store would be a GREAT deterrent.
Personally, I'd love to start a town in Nebraska in which a local ordinance is that everyone older than 10 has to take a firearms safety class (free, offered by the town), and every adult in town has to qualify yearly (using any gun, don't care what) at a 7-yard target demonstrating basic accuracy and safe gun handling, and where open carry in town is actively encouraged.
When I win the lottery...