General Categories > Carry Issues
Open Carry...*gasp*
Mudinyeri:
I haven't kept track of the number of convicted criminals with which I've interacted, but I've done jail ministries and youth detention/diversion ministries for years. My guess would be somewhere in the vicinity of 3000 - 5000 individuals over the years.
Out of that number, I would only use the word cunning to describe a relatively small percentage - maybe 20%. (We may be attaching different connotations to the word.) Generally, I would agree with the rest of your description of the "average" criminal.
If we're talking about "above average" criminals who truly plan their crimes and take the time to scope out the AO ... that's a pretty small percentage in my experience - maybe five or ten percent. Does that fit with your experience?
If so, we're talking about a relatively small chance that the relatively small percentage of the population who open carries interacts with the relatively small percentage of the criminal population who is "above average". I think we can safely say that the odds of an "above average" criminal taking and using an open carrying civilian's firearm and using it against them are lower than the odds of being struck by lightning or dying in a plane crash. Nevertheless, the results will doubtless be catastrophic. As such, it doesn't hurt to give the scenario some consideration - much like one should give consideration to the possibility of being struck by lightning.
Does that mean one should stay inside when the forecast calls for rain or whenever one doesn't carry concealed? Probably not. Then again, I'm not going to tell anyone that they need to open carry. It's a personal decision.
JTH:
--- Quote from: Mudinyeri on June 12, 2013, 03:32:36 PM ---If we're talking about "above average" criminals who truly plan their crimes and take the time to scope out the AO ... that's a pretty small percentage in my experience - maybe five or ten percent. Does that fit with your experience?
--- End quote ---
No, actually. And I don't consider these "above average" criminals, either. Lots of idiots who knock over a mini-mart step inside and look around a bit first. Lots of "area" crimes (as opposed to ones in which they pick one isolated victim) start with a member of the criminal set taking a quick look around.
Again---we aren't talking scoping out the place, going back and creating a floorplan with set tactical choices. Three guys in a car park beside a gas station, one goes in and uses the restroom while taking a look around at how many people are in there, and comes back out. One guy takes the car around to the front and parks it and stays, the other two run in, knock over the place, and run back out, then they drive off.
Doesn't take an above average criminal to do this. I would say that a large number of the criminals I've interacted with would have no problem doing this.
--- Quote ---If so, we're talking about a relatively small chance that the relatively small percentage of the population who open carries interacts with the relatively small percentage of the criminal population who is "above average". I think we can safely say that the odds of an "above average" criminal taking and using an open carrying civilian's firearm and using it against them are lower than the odds of being struck by lightning or dying in a plane crash. Nevertheless, the results will doubtless be catastrophic. As such, it doesn't hurt to give the scenario some consideration - much like one should give consideration to the possibility of being struck by lightning.
--- End quote ---
I think that:
1) In Nebraska, the chances of any particular person needing to use a carried firearm for self-defense purposes is very, very small.
2) That possibility is made even smaller by not doing stupid things with stupid people in stupid places.
3) That possibility is made even smaller by maintaining your best awareness of the situation around you, and being smart enough to not engage and just leave when incipient altercations are about to occur.
And yet, plenty of people carry anyway---in other words, they are planning on being prepared for an incredibly low probability event.
And if we are planning on being prepared for a low probability event in the first place, it seems to me that it makes sense to make said preparation the most useful. (For the time and resources being given to it. We don't have unlimited time and money, so not everyone can go take SouthNarc's ECQC course.)
I don't consider criminals who simply look around for a minute before starting their crime as "above average," and I do know that criminals who target individuals may be deterred by the obvious presence of a weapon--but may also instead (based on the individual's actions) consider it a "free gun" depending on the circumstances. And no, I still don't consider those "above average." (Making a decision to blindside someone with a tire iron and take their gun and wallet instead of just threatening them with a knife for their wallet isn't anything incredibly difficult.)
It doesn't take a smart person to hit you. And it doesn't take a genius to decide to hit you first using surprise if you are visibly armed.
I note that I don't believe I ever said "take your gun and use it against you"--and for good reason. Unless you are a police officer (who actually do have their weapons used against them on occasion) that is incredibly rare. This, however, is separate from people potentially being targeted as a primary opponent due to carrying, or having their gun stolen from them.
Point being--given choices that raise or lower your personal risk, I'm thinking that it makes more sense to take the choices that lower your personal risk. Most of us don't carry guns as a fashion statement, we carry as part of our personal risk management plan. In my personal opinion, open carrying doesn't lower my risk at all, and draws unnecessary attention to myself. It also means that in certain specific (highly unlikely, but then again so is needing it in the first place) situations, my risk is highly increased.
Given no upside, and several avenues of potential downsides, it isn't an option I'd choose for normal daily carry.
--- Quote ---Does that mean one should stay inside when the forecast calls for rain or whenever one doesn't carry concealed? Probably not. Then again, I'm not going to tell anyone that they need to open carry. It's a personal decision.
--- End quote ---
I'm not going to tell anyone what type of carry they can do.
And I happen to think that five people open-carrying in a store would be a GREAT deterrent.
Personally, I'd love to start a town in Nebraska in which a local ordinance is that everyone older than 10 has to take a firearms safety class (free, offered by the town), and every adult in town has to qualify yearly (using any gun, don't care what) at a 7-yard target demonstrating basic accuracy and safe gun handling, and where open carry in town is actively encouraged.
When I win the lottery...
GreyGeek:
--- Quote from: jthhapkido on June 12, 2013, 04:19:26 PM --- In Nebraska, the chances of any particular person needing to use a carried firearm for self-defense purposes is very, very small.
--- End quote ---
Except if that person is an LEO or retired LEO, or a PI, or as an expert witness helped convict and imprison dangerous people.
00BUCK:
--- Quote from: jthhapkido on June 12, 2013, 04:19:26 PM ---everyone older than 10 has to take a firearms safety class (free, offered by the town), and every adult in town has to qualify yearly
--- End quote ---
Yeah, because the second amendment says you have to have training.
NOT
MissMichella:
Thanks for all the resources. The more I read about this topic, the more conflicting information and research I've found. :-[
I suppose it's best to carry how you feel most comfortable for the situations you are most likely to face.
--- Quote from: jthhapkido on June 11, 2013, 03:25:52 PM ---
And that's coming from the perspective of someone who has practiced martial arts for over 20 years, and who has considerable practice at empty-hand self-defense and weapons retention techniques.
--- End quote ---
That's an impressive number of years! I kind of thought that's what you meant by empty-hand training. I did Krav years ago, but have recently gotten some informal lessons in self-defense and weapon retention from my military buddies. I hope I never have to test out what I'm learning. :(
I have only heard a few stories of an OC having their weapon taken...on other forums...but I know it's something that could happen. If this situation was the norm it seems like LEO would CC and all be in plain clothes. A criminal COULD target me first because I'm open carrying, but a criminal COULD target a CC because they look like an easy target. There's lots of different situations that COULD happen, so even though it's not perfect, I think situational awareness is something that is very important.
I also interact with convicted felons frequently...and in high numbers...and in my conversations with them on this topic, they overwhelmingly expressed that they would not have committed their crime if there was someone armed present. They wouldn't want the risk of being hurt, stopped, or apprehended. Now, I also haven't spoken to every convict on this matter, and I'm sure that there are some who wouldn't care about taking on the risks or the potential charges associated with murdering someone who was going to get in the way of their plans.
--- Quote from: jthhapkido on June 12, 2013, 04:19:26 PM ---
Point being--given choices that raise or lower your personal risk, I'm thinking that it makes more sense to take the choices that lower your personal risk. Most of us don't carry guns as a fashion statement, we carry as part of our personal risk management plan.
--- End quote ---
This part I agree with completely...except that I would say that if open carry deters a crime from being committed, it would give it an upside. With my past and current job history, my gender, my neighborhood and areas I frequent...etc...I actually have a pretty high probability of experiencing a situation where I would need to defend myself in some way. The situations I've already experienced led to me becoming a gun owner after all! ;D Assault, rape, home invasions, or being robbed are the crimes I could see being the most likely to occur in my life. The criminal element that commits those types of crimes seem logically like the type who would seek out an easier victim rather than taking on the risk of committing their crimes on someone who had a "situation equalizer" handy. But that just would be for me personally, so I can see how it would be different for others.
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