NFOA MEMBERS FORUM
General Categories => Information Arsenal => Topic started by: GreyGeek on October 15, 2014, 10:58:52 AM
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After listening the the CYA exercise at the Dallas hospital this morning I decided to investigate a little more deeply some of the claims being made.
The only way you can guarantee that you do not have Ebola is if there has been the passage of 30 days between your last contact with ANY PERSON or object not currently in your home. Why?
The CDC describes the received wisdom as to how Ebola is spread.
They are
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/
1) contact with bodily fluids
2) contact with objects contaminated with bodily fluids
3) bodily fluids from infected animals
They make a point of claiming that Ebola is not spread through the air or by water, or in general, by food, mosquitoes or other insects, except for bush meat or bat bites,
Basically, the claim is that until a person with Ebola begins exhibiting symptoms uninfected people are not at risk during contact with infected people. That is based on their claim that Ebola is only transmitted by contact with bodily fluids (sweat, sputum, blood, vomit and bowel ejections).
The big number tossed around for the incubation period is 21 days. So, the claim most often made (causes the least concern) is that a person who contracts Ebola won't be infective until they exhibit symptoms, or for about 21 days. Is that the same as claiming that the Ebola virus won't migrate to the sweat glands until after 21 days, or that contact with blood from a wound on an infected person won't be infective until after 21 days? What about feminine hygiene products discarded by an infected woman during a menstrual period occurring before the 21 days has elapsed? Or sex between an infected partner and an uninfected partner before the 21st day? Obviously that involves the exchange of bodily fluids. In today's promiscuous atmosphere where people have multiple sex partners even on the same day or within 21 days, that becomes a severe transmission vector.
Equally obvious is that from the day of infection until the 21st day, or when symptoms began to appear, the viral load of Ebola in an infected person increases exponentially, increasing the risk of transmission of Ebola by bodily fluids or discarded sanitary products. And, many normal activities like shaking hands (sweat), kissing (saliva) or sex cause the exchange of bodily fluids.
To make matters worse, WHO states that:
The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms is 2 to 21 days. Not the most often claimed "21 days".
Therefore, NO expert on Ebola transmission can guarantee that a transmission of Ebola from an infected person to an uninfected person cannot occur prior to the 21st day.
The news conference is Dallas today during which they announced that a second nurse was infected with Ebola was mainly an exercise in CYA by the people in charge because they supplied no other information except to cover their own rears. As one news reporter pointed out, the L5 hospital in Omaha, Nebraska treated 5 Ebola patients without a single staff member contracting the disease. The Texas hospital has treated only one Ebola patient and two nurses have been infected. NO amount of CYA can cover that gross example of managerial incompetence. Yet, they blame the nurses.
IF infected people who do not show symptoms can leave bodily fluids of one form or another in the environment, or on, or in other people, then the claim of 21 days is bogus. If a person can began showing symptoms 2 days after infection, as some cases have reported, then there is no such thing as a "safe" period of contact with an infected individual.
I suspect that if the general public learns about this information the result will be a massive negative affect on political and social gatherings, shopping, theater business, eating out, and even school attendance. Who knows what else? It is also obvious that the FIVE L5 containment hospitals around the US, of which one is in Omaha, does NOT have the facilities to treat a flood of infected people. Those facilities will be reserved for the "elite". Where will the rest be put for treatment, if there is enough medical supplies to treat them?
[tin foil hat on]FEMA camps?[/tin foil hat off]
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I keep telling myself, 36,000 people die from regular old flue every year,
gotta watch this close, I got a funny feeling, like the Indians are out there screaming for hair!
maybe, just maybe!
http://cluborlov.blogspot.be/2014/10/ebola-and-five-stages-of-collapse.html (http://cluborlov.blogspot.be/2014/10/ebola-and-five-stages-of-collapse.html)
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Interesting link.
The authorities are claiming that they can tell when an infected person become communicable by monitoring their temperature. However, that is not true in all cases.
It has been reported in the LA Times (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-1012-ebola-fever-20141012-story.html#page=1) that:
The finding that 87.1% of those infected exhibited fever — but 12.9% did not — illustrates the challenges confronting health authorities as they struggle to contain the epidemic.
U.S. health officials have repeatedly emphasized that fever is a reliable sign of infectiousness. As a defense against the spread of the virus to this country, the Obama administration has ordered that passengers arriving from West Africa at five U.S. airports be checked for fever.
The CDC reported that the second Dallas healthcare worker, Amber Joy Vinson, traveled on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth while symptomatic.
All 132 passengers on the flight are being asked to call 1 800-CDC INFO (1 800 232-4636). Public health professionals will begin interviewing passengers about the flight Wednesday afternoon. What could they possible ask which would identify anyone who had, or would admit to, contact with Vinson? Most would, for financial reasons, revert to a form of denial, not believing that they could be infected "because Vinson looked OK".
Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that about 150 air passengers per day — or 1,050 per week — enter the U.S. from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the countries at the heart of the outbreak.
:o
It's obvious that all 150 of those people do not arrive on the same plane at the same time. On any given day there are at least three flights from Liberia flying to Kansas City, for example. If each flight held 250 passengers then 600 people are exposed, or roughly 4,200 people per week! Twelve percent of those infected among the 4,200 will NOT show a temperature when tested at the destination airport, even though they are infectious. So, 500 infected passengers could be mixing into Kansas City's population and spreading the disease.
I formulated my initial optimism for containing Ebola based on the Dallas Texas Presbyterian Hospital, a typical and average hospital, being able to contain the virus. It is obvious that the virus escaped into the population of the medical staff. Only time will reveal how far outside that population it traveled. We'll know within 30 days, but I am no longer optimistic. So far, only L5 facilities have been able to treat the virus without crossover contamination. Thirty days will not be enough time to bring other "normal" hospital staffs up to speed on adequate containment measures.
We will be paying a severe penalty for dumbing down our educational systems, or our institutions being managed by people incompetent in everything except covering their own rears.
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Rush had a good point today. everyone is talking about the woman flying TO texas. I wonder how she got TO Cleveland.
stand by for updates from WKRP radio, Less Nessman is on top of this!
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They don't tell anyone the truth about anything else, why should this be any different?
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Rush had a good point today. everyone is talking about the woman flying TO texas. I wonder how she got TO Cleveland.
stand by for updates from WKRP radio, Less Nessman is on top of this!
oh God....
it might be time for me to stop reading ebola threads, quit watching the news, and quit listening to the patriot channel....
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oh God....
it might be time for me to stop reading ebola threads, quit watching the news, and quit listening to the patriot channel....
Ah, but don't forget ... putting your head into the sand raises your butt into the air. It is a much bigger target! ;)
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Ebola has been welcomed into this country with open arms, accepted with a grin on our face. To date the only thing that made any since was not allowing travel to the US. from affected areas. We are talking about the government who are famous for taking something simple and making it complicated and then effin it up.
Why shouldn't she be allowed to fly around in the country if we allow them to fly into the country. Talk about a cluster f**k.
The big talk on Hannity was about the first nurse's dog. Are you serious, that just shows how we are not taking this serious. Put the mutt down and burn the carcass.
Around 250 heath care workers have contracted ebola and died. Our hospitals definitely aren't ready for everyone that walks in with a fever. The head of the CDC seems to biggest idiot of all, I think Obama is going to use him for his fall guy.
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The CDC gave the woman permission to go on the flight?
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/10/15/cdc-officials-confirm-they-told-dallas-ebola-patient-it-was-ok-for-her-to-fly-even-with-low-grade-fever-report/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/10/15/cdc-officials-confirm-they-told-dallas-ebola-patient-it-was-ok-for-her-to-fly-even-with-low-grade-fever-report/)
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I've heard all different conspiracy of why our country would allow ebola in here, from population control to martial law. One that kinda makes since is big pharma needs a source of sick people that are able to pay for what they are peddling, well that and our president keeps trying to put a square peg in a round hole.
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CDC (Centers for Disease Confusion) we should put all worries to rest when they are on the job. :laugh:
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I found it interesting that Obama put a flight quarantine on Israel in an attempt to force it to submit to outrageous terrorists demands, but then says the flight quarantines aren't workable for stopping people from West Africa from entering this country. Nice double standard and classic Orwellian NewSpeak.
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You Won't Believe This!
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/brittany-m-hughes/cdc-you-can-give-can-t-get-ebola-bus (http://cnsnews.com/news/article/brittany-m-hughes/cdc-you-can-give-can-t-get-ebola-bus)
Dr. Tom Frieden, director for the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said during a telephone press briefing Wednesday that you cannot get Ebola by sitting next to someone on a bus, but that infected or exposed persons should not ride public transportation because they could transmit the disease to someone else.
WHAT? ??? ??? ???
I can't get Ebola setting next to someone on a bus, but if that someone has Ebola they can give it to me? Only an incompetent manager trying to CYA will attempt to foist that one on the American public.
Frieden is brain dead if he thinks that Orwellian DoubleSpeak will fly with anyone. Even a HS graduate should be able to see the contradiction!
However, the potential movement of lots of people potentially infected with Ebola could be the kernel of the excuse to establish martial law -- to control the movement of everyone in order to control the movement of those infected people. Considering what the administration has done so far, such a possibility is not imaginary or impossible.
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I suspect that if the general public learns about this information the result will be a massive negative affect on political and social gatherings, shopping, theater business, eating out, and even school attendance. Who knows what else?
You nailed it, GG.
Looky here what happened right here in Nebraska with the 1918 flu epidemic:
http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/1918/your_state/midwest/nebraska/index.html (http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/1918/your_state/midwest/nebraska/index.html)
You'll recognize all the names of places.
Looks like a very close parallel for what's happening now.
sfg
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from the white house.
just the first 2 minutes!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm-UZd8PIMI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm-UZd8PIMI)
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ABC News is reporting that the 2nd nurse, Vinson, was showing symptoms BEFORE she flew to Cleveland, Ohio.
So now the CDC has to locate everyone else on that outbound flight and everyone else they came in contact with. If, for example, 250 were on that first flight, and each of those were in contact with 50 other people, that's an additional 1,250 exposed people. Vinson alone may be responsible for spreading Ebola to more than 2,000 people, and she took the second flight, and perhaps the first, with the permission of the CDC!
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I saw this A.M. that there is a Carnival Cruise ship that is quarantined in Belize because one of the passengers is a health care worker who may have handled infectious samples from the Texas patient.
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I saw that. There is also a report of a tour bus at the pentagon. A women recently from Libera was on the bus and began vomiting. Everybody on the bus is now exposed.
Here is a map plotting the appearance of Ebola infections around the world:
https://ebola-outbreaks.silk.co/explore/map/collection/ebola-outbreaks/location/reported-human-cases (https://ebola-outbreaks.silk.co/explore/map/collection/ebola-outbreaks/location/reported-human-cases)
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/17/obama-to-name-ebola-czar/ (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/17/obama-to-name-ebola-czar/)
It looks like he is still trying to put a square peg in a round hole.
I don't know about you but I will be sleeping easier with a democratic political lobbyists as our ebola czar. REALLY!!!
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http://bulletsfirst.net/2014/10/06/obama-bans-importation-guns-importation-ebola/ (http://bulletsfirst.net/2014/10/06/obama-bans-importation-guns-importation-ebola/)
This guy definitely has his priorities screwed up!!!
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Dr. Frieden, in responding to reporter questions about why the US does not ban flights from West Africa into the United States, more than likely used a statement from a PLOS paper on Ebola (http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/) which stated:
In addition, travel restrictions may hamper the deployment of personnel and support in the region, ultimately creating a counter productive effect in the containment effort.
The basis of that statement, as explained in a previous paragraph:
... assuming an 80% airline traffic flow reduction to and from the West African region that provided evidence of a general time-delay of the distribution characterizing the probability of case importation of about three to four weeks.
The model doesn't investigate a 100% reduction of flow from West African regions. And, it contains Dr. Frieden's second excuse for not imposing a 100% ban on travel from West Africa to the US:
In addition, travel restrictions may hamper the deployment of personnel and support in the region, ultimately creating a counter productive effect in the containment effort.
Again, that assumption is based on only an 80% reduction in air traffic flow out of West Africa to the US.
The article has an interesting graphic showing the mathematical model used for the argument above:
(http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/files/2014/08/compartmentalmodel2-600x336.png)
Even more interesting is the table of conclusions:
Transition parameters Value References
Mean duration of incubation period (1/?) 7 days 33,34,35
Mean time from onset to hospitalization (1/?h) 5 days 36
Mean time from onset to death (1/?d) 9.6 days 36
Mean time from onset to end of infectiousness for survivors (1/?i) 10 days 35,37
Mean time from death to traditional burial (1/?f) 2 days 10
Proportion of cases hospitalized, ? 80% 36
Rate of transition from infectious to hospitalized (?1) 0.67
Case fatality ratio, ? 55%
?1 0.54
?2 0.53
Mean time from hospitalizations to end of infectiousness for survivors (1/?ih) 5 days
Mean time from hospitalizations to death (1/?dh) 4.6 days
Those data are taken from actual West African Ebola cases. The form of Ebola in the US may have mutated since these data were collected, but their "Mean duration of incubation period" of 7 days is a LOT LESS than that of 21 days given by the CDC. WHO, on the other hand, reported 2 to 21 days. If the "Mean" period of incubation is only 7 days then WHO is more correct in giving a range of 2 to 21 days. A possibility of 2 days of incubation before being symptomatic decreases significantly the period between infection and infectiousness. Since 12.7% do not present a fever during the infectious period it would mean that the onset of vomiting and other external symptoms would appear more rapidly and fewer people would be exposed. That 12.7% of cases could only be detected by a blood or saliva test which, given current methods available at most hospitals, would require more than two days to complete and return results, unless expedited.
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Grey Geek. can you translate that into English?
you make my head hurt, :o
barbed wire, need more barbed wire,
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Sure.
The susceptible individuals are represented by S;
exposed individuals by E;
infected cases in the community by I;
hospitalized cases by H;
dead but not yet buried by F;
and individuals no longer transmitting the disease, R.
The set of S unexposed individuals and the set of exposed individuals, (S,E), are changed to (S-1, E+1) after another person is exposed. The same pattern applies to the other seven sets.
"Model parameters are:
?I , transmission coefficient in the community;
?H , transmission coefficient at the hospital;
?F , transmission coefficient during funerals.
?1 is computed so that ?% of infectious cases are hospitalized.
Compartment specific ?1 and ?2 are computed so that the overall case-fatality ratio is ?. The mean incubation period is given by ??1;
?h?1 is the mean duration from symptom onset to hospitalization;
?dh?1 is the mean duration from hospitalization to death;
?i?1 is the mean duration of the infectious period for survivors;
?ih?1 is the mean duration from hospitalization to end of infectiousness for survivors; and finally,
?f?1 is the mean duration from death to burial."
The first change, (S,E) --> (S-1, E+1) is described mathematically by:
(betaISI + betaHSH + betaFSF)/N
(I use "beta" for that greek character because of limitations of this forum)
where N is the number of total cases in the model. SI is the product of the number of uninfected people by the number of infected people and betaI is a conversion constant which computes the new total number of infected in that set. Dittos for Hospitalized folks H and dead but unburied folks F.
The purpose of the division by N is to normalize the results, i.e., create a number between 0 and 1.0. The result of the math is a conversion factor which enumerates how many exposed people will become infected in a population of S unexposed individuals based on transmissions via infected I, hospitalized H and dead but unburied F.
The big take away is the set of "Transition Parameters", as I expressed in the paragraph beneath that table. Essentially, Dr. Frieden was blowing smoke using a model which stated exactly opposite what he was claiming.
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Greygeek,
Although your second post did clear up some of the confusing parts in the first post, I have to join Shooter in asking for a translation into common English. ;)
If I understand you correctly what you are ultimately saying is that NoBama and his "advisors" are ventilating particulated matter from their posterior orifices and we are being fed bovine excrement in mass quantities by those same people?
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ventilating particulated matter from their posterior orifices
Essentially, by relying on what we don't know or ignoring what we do know, like Shepard Smith did on Fox.
Since its appearance among humans in 1976 the Ebola virus has mutated several times. There are five species of the genus Ebolavirus, and four of them are known to infect people. There are cases of airborne transmission among animals, both in natural and controlled circumstances. The CDC is relying on airborne transmission being "undocumented", not that it is impossible, when they say that Ebola can only be contracted through contact with bodily fluids. Knowing how dishonest they've been in the past, and how they dissemble the data, one could easily come to the conclusion that they know about cases of airborne transmission of the four species, but are concealing that information.
The CDC discussion of the possibility of airborne transmission is here (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/human-transmission.html). It mentions airborne transmission six times.
1 and 2)
Airborne transmission of Ebola virus has been hypothesized but not demonstrated in humans. While Ebola virus can be spread through airborne particles under experimental conditions in animals, this type of spread has not been documented during human EVD outbreaks in settings such as hospitals or households. In the laboratory setting, non-human primates with their heads placed in closed hoods have been exposed to and infected by nebulized aerosols of Ebola virus. In a different experiment, control monkeys were placed in cages 3 meters away from the cages of monkeys that were intramuscularly inoculated with Ebola virus. Control and inoculated monkeys both developed Ebola virus infection.
Monkeys are often used in modeling human diseases because their genetics and physiology is so similar to ours. I leave it to the reader to decide if that modeling is valid when Ebola is the disease, or if various UN and American health agencies are revealing the full truth.
3)
The authors concluded that “fomite and contact droplet” transmission to the control monkeys was unlikely, and that airborne transmission was most likely,
4)
A more recent experiment that was specifically designed to further evaluate the possibility of naturally-occurring airborne transmission of Ebola virus among non-human primates showed no transmission of Ebola virus from infected to control primates placed 0.3 meters apart in separate open-barred cages and ambient air conditions, but with a plexiglass divider that prevented direct contact between the animals.
5 and 6)
CDC infection control recommendations for U.S. hospitals, including recommendations for standard, contact, and droplet precautions for general care, reflect the established routes for human-to-human transmission of EVD and are based on data collected from previous EVD outbreaks in Africa in addition to experimental data. Airborne transmission of EVD among humans has never been demonstrated in investigations that have described human-to-human transmission although hypothetical concerns about airborne transmission of EVD have been raised
One thing for certain, N95 masks won't stop Ebola. Could aerosols sprayed from the mouth of a coughing Ebola victim contaminate you if you inhaled them?
http://youtu.be/bfNnTtLNuBQ (http://youtu.be/bfNnTtLNuBQ)
http://youtu.be/wnafrAtfMzE (http://youtu.be/wnafrAtfMzE)
They say that you can only contract Ebola by contact with fluids from the victim. Airborne fluids are fluids. Large droplets go farther than small drops. Drops landing on your face, face mask or body represent objected contaminated by an infected fluid. As the droplets evaporate the virus is left floating around, jostled by Brownian motion. These are the particles than can pass through an N05 mask.
Speculation: Perhaps Pham and Vinson did maintain "protocol" but being in the room exposed them to airborne particles before the ventilation system purified the air?
N95 respirators made by different companies were found to have different filtration efficiencies for the most penetrating particle size (0.1 to 0.3 micron), but all were at least 95% efficient (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9487666) at that size for NaCl particles.
Hence the "N95" designation. So, N95 masks can remove 95 out of every 100 viral particles between the ranges of 0.1 to 0.3 microns. Ebola viruses have a diameter of 80 nanometers (80/1000 of a micron) and lengths can vary from sub micron to 14 microns. All Firefighter / EMT/ Heavy Rescue & Haz Mat programs I've read about recommend N100 or P100 masks (http://www.amazon.com/3M-P100-Particulate-Respirator-8293/dp/B001BXRRH4). However, a mask does NOT a protocol make. What difference does it make if you wear the mask and then take it off before it is sterilized in place, before you touch it. If you were to touch it with gloved (contaminated) hands you risk contaminating the exposed mouth and skin it covered. If you remove your gloves your hands are exposed. Your entire exterior clothing and mask must be decontaminated before you remove any layer, and more than one layer is recommended so that you can go through at least two stages of decontaminations.
All of this points out that the best practice is not buying hazmat suits and N100 masks, but keeping a large distance between yourself and infected people. IOW, if you fear contamination or have been exposed then isolate your self along with safe supplies of food and water until at least 30 days since the last known infection has passed. BTW, did you notice in the CDC article cited above that the Ebola virus was found in semen 101 days AFTER the last symptoms disappeared? The article didn't say how long Ebola was detected in semen after the 101 days, but it did note that:
Sexual transmission of Marburg virus (but not Ebola virus) has been described. (in the literature)