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General Categories => Survival/Emergency Preparedness => Topic started by: FarmerRick on October 03, 2014, 02:27:03 PM

Title: Ebola
Post by: FarmerRick on October 03, 2014, 02:27:03 PM
What are you doing to prepare? Can we really prepare for it?

Theoretical infection rate in U.S. if Dallas is ground zero. This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher ROI (rate of infection) of 3.47

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47

If the ROI is 2.60...

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: RLMoeller on October 03, 2014, 02:29:38 PM
I'm just going to trust my government to keep me safe and tell me what to do.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: kozball on October 03, 2014, 02:50:35 PM
 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: NENick on October 03, 2014, 03:02:13 PM
My superior immune system will keep me safe.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: bkoenig on October 03, 2014, 03:29:26 PM
I'm not saying there's not a reason for concern, but keep in mind that in West Africa, which has pretty much the worst medical care in the world, it has so far only killed about 4,000 people.  We have a lot of advantages over them, such as basic sanitation and the fact that families typically don't prepare their own dead for burial.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: kozball on October 03, 2014, 03:35:07 PM
I'm not saying there's not a reason for concern, but keep in mind that in West Africa, which has pretty much the worst medical care in the world, it has so far only killed about 4,000 people.  We have a lot of advantages over them, such as basic sanitation and the fact that families typically don't prepare their own dead for burial.

With that in mind, how would they deal with the dead here? Cremation?
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Gary on October 03, 2014, 04:39:15 PM
Saying this is not a major problem, is doing a head in the sand routine.

Maybe the Kenyan got home sick, so he is bring things from his homeland to his adopted country?

I think bringing Ebola patients to the geographical center of the nation, has got to be a plan of someone very foolish, or very wise (depending on what side the players are on)   
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: bkoenig on October 03, 2014, 04:58:23 PM
Saying this is not a major problem, is doing a head in the sand routine.

Maybe the Kenyan got home sick, so he is bring things from his homeland to his adopted country?

I think bringing Ebola patients to the geographical center of the nation, has got to be a plan of someone very foolish, or very wise (depending on what side the players are on)   

Kenya is on the other side of the continent from the Ebola outbreak.

There's potential for an outbreak here, but it's not likely to be on the same scale as what we're seeing in a third world country with an early 20th century level medical system, tribal superstitions, and nonexistent sanitation.  Should we be concerned?  Absolutely.  We should take steps to stop any outbreak immediately.  At the same time, panic won't do anyone a bit of good.


Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: ghknives on October 03, 2014, 06:42:12 PM
Some interesting facts that I can't verify but are from a source I trust. The CDC is scared sh*tlless. If not controlled immediately it will be a pandemic in a year or so. Protective clothing, masks & procedures are not enough. If they were, the attending medical personnel wouldn't be getting sick. Development of antiviruses are almost impossible because the virus mutates faster than cultures can be grown to develop the cure. In it's present mutant form it is air born & able to infect animals and birds.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: farmerbob on October 03, 2014, 07:24:05 PM
http://patriotoutdoornews.com/11597/msnbc-ya-know-whos-really-blame-ebola-mess-nra#BrjvC82GUPzZ209s.01 (http://patriotoutdoornews.com/11597/msnbc-ya-know-whos-really-blame-ebola-mess-nra#BrjvC82GUPzZ209s.01)

Leave it to MSNBC.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Lmbass14 on October 03, 2014, 08:39:21 PM
Let's review ebola patients.  Texas, Hawaii, Colorado, Maryland, and DC. 

Naw, move along now, nothing to see.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 03, 2014, 11:32:24 PM
Let's review ebola patients.  Texas, Hawaii, Colorado, Maryland, and DC. 

Naw, move along now, nothing to see.

You missed Omaha.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 03, 2014, 11:42:08 PM
What are you doing to prepare? Can we really prepare for it?

Theoretical infection rate in U.S. if Dallas is ground zero. This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher ROI (rate of infection) of 3.47

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47

If the ROI is 2.60...

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6

Something isn't right with your figures, FarmerRick.
The doubling time is equal to approximately 70/(% annual growth rate).
So, 70/3.47 = 20 years doubling time.
Or, 70/(appx doubling time) = annual  % growth rate
From 3 dead to 248,000 dead in a single year is way more than 3.47% ROI.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: shooter on October 03, 2014, 11:48:21 PM
Something isn't right with your figures, FarmerRick.
The doubling time is equal to approximately 70/(% annual growth rate).
So, 70/3.47 = 20 years doubling time.
Or, 70/(appx doubling time) = annual  % growth rate
From 3 dead to 248,000 dead in a single year is way more than 3.47% ROI.

    Your making my head hurt again,
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: FarmerRick on October 04, 2014, 07:22:53 AM
Quote
Something isn't right with your figures, FarmerRick.
The doubling time is equal to approximately 70/(% annual growth rate).
So, 70/3.47 = 20 years doubling time.
Or, 70/(appx doubling time) = annual  % growth rate
From 3 dead to 248,000 dead in a single year is way more than 3.47% ROI.


These figures were lifted from a thread on ARFCOM.  From what I understand the 3.47 is a rate of infection, not a percentage. Average of 3.47(or 2.6 in the second set) new people infected by each currently infected person. That then grows exponentially.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 04, 2014, 09:53:30 AM
These figures were lifted from a thread on ARFCOM.  From what I understand the 3.47 is a rate of infection, not a percentage. Average of 3.47(or 2.6 in the second set) new people infected by each currently infected person. That then grows exponentially.

ROI or annual percentage growth rate.  It doesn't matter.  ALL naturally occurring growth (or declines) occur exponentially (i.e., according to the powers of e).  Be it biological processes like  the growth of viruses or bacteria, or the physical growth or decay of non-living matter, like radioactive decay.   Extrapolations of exponential growth can rapidly lead to unrealistically high (http://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/exponential-growth.html) numbers.

The rate of change of ebola infections, dx, as a function of time, dt, is proportional to the number of infections to begin with, X.   To make it an equality a constant is introduced.  It's primary purpose is to establish the units of measure.    dx/dt = kX.    Integrating that relation leads to:
X(t) = X(0)e^kt
where k is equal to 100*ln(2)/(doubling time)  (or half-life in the case of radioactive decays).

There are other forms of polynomial growth but exponential growth  overtakes them all.   However, another reason why the figures from that forum are unrealistic is that negative feedback builds up as X(t) becomes large, leading to reductions in the rate of growth.  The ROI of Ebola would naturally reduce when the number of uninfected hosts shrink.  This gives rise to the Logistics Growth model, which is represented by the classic sigmoid curve:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Logistic-curve.svg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Logistic-curve.svg)

Here is an excellent summary of exponential grow: http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/how-populations-grow-the-exponential-and-logistic-13240157 (http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/how-populations-grow-the-exponential-and-logistic-13240157)

I am not disagreeing with the fact that an exponentially growing number of people infected with Ebola is a serious thing, and would result in a large  number of deaths, but those figures from that website look very strange.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Lmbass14 on October 04, 2014, 12:32:21 PM
You missed Omaha.


GG, didn't miss Omaha, actually had it on the list before deleting it, didn't count Omaha because the person is coming here and hopefully, will be in a body suit so he won't get people infected.  The other cities it's unknown how many people will get infected.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 04, 2014, 12:45:57 PM
GG, didn't miss Omaha, actually had it on the list before deleting it, didn't count Omaha because the person is coming here and hopefully, will be in a body suit so he won't get people infected.  The other cities it's unknown how many people will get infected.


True, I was jumping the gun a bit.   However, assurances that Ebola is spread only by contact with bodily fluids is not re-assuring or accurate.  MANY viruses are spread from person to person with insect vectors.  It only takes one viral particle transfered via the proboscis of a Mosquito or the bite of a bedbug to infect someone.  Is the Ebola virus so host specific that it cannot survive more than a few seconds outside the host?     How long does an Ebola virus remain viable while residing on the surface of a door handle, or the table of a diner, or  drifting by while floating in the air on particles of mucus sneezed moments before?  Why is it that medical personal in full body protective clothing, and throughly washed down with Chlorine solution before removing the clothing STILL get the virus?

And,  it amazes me how many journalism majors have suddenly become expert biologists.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Gary on October 04, 2014, 01:31:44 PM
GG, didn't miss Omaha, actually had it on the list before deleting it, didn't count Omaha because the person is coming here and hopefully, will be in a body suit so he won't get people infected.  The other cities it's unknown how many people will get infected.
90,000 people a year die from infections they catch in hospitals.  Catch in hospitals.  Why is it I find impossible to believe all waste matter , clothing, food trays, infected room air, and a miriad of other containmens will stay contained from the visits of Ebola patients to a Omaha hospital?

We can not control 6'6" inmates but we can contain things we cannot see in the air?   

Ebola is not being treated in Omaha, it is being enoculated in Omaha.   

This admin is doing anything it can to sink America.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Gary on October 04, 2014, 01:48:14 PM
True, I was jumping the gun a bit.   However, assurances that Ebola is spread only by contact with bodily fluids is not re-assuring or accurate.  MANY viruses are spread from person to person with insect vectors.  It only takes one viral particle transfered via the proboscis of a Mosquito or the bite of a bedbug to infect someone.  Is the Ebola virus so host specific that it cannot survive more than a few seconds outside the host?     How long does an Ebola virus remain viable while residing on the surface of a door handle, or the table of a diner, or  drifting by while floating in the air on particles of mucus sneezed moments before?  Why is it that medical personal in full body protective clothing, and throughly washed down with Chlorine solution before removing the clothing STILL get the virus?

And,  it amazes me how many journalism majors have suddenly become expert biologists.
How true.  I would not drop by that hospital for lunch in the dining room. 

I work with blood borne pathogens daily.  Gone are the days of wiping things off with whatever and calling it good.  In my studio I do not allow nervous throat clearing or coughing by people. I ask them politely to stop or leave.  A throat virus in someone can go airborne through a cough and get into a skin wound causing a greater complication for the new host. 

One preventive measure to reduce the enoculated infections from one person to another is saline spray into the throat of people entering hospitals.  Hospitals seldom do this, as it worries people, but the saline spray weighs down viruses and keeps people from spreading illness.  That and frequent hand washing.

My wife saw a doctor the other day for a sore back.  The doctor entered the room and washed his hands.  Good right?   Well not really.  He just kind of rinced them off, no soap, no vigorous drying of hands after, and then he shakes our hands with his dripping wet hands.    If the doctors are that out to lunch about simple hand washing, we are in big trouble. 
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: 66bigblock on October 04, 2014, 02:44:58 PM
Well, here is what totally blows my mind about this whole ebola thing.  The feds / state/ HHS, whatever leaves potentially infected people in a run down apartment building in dallas to just come and go as they please.  Then, they change course and say that they are quarantined to the apartment with the remaining contaminated clothes, sheets, towels, etc from the infected man.  Then it is finally decided to have the remaining residents removed from the apartment and the apartment cleaned.  So who is called for cleaning the deadly virus from the apartment?  "The Cleaning Guys"  A company who specializes in cleaning up diesel fuel spills off of the highway.

(http://i62.tinypic.com/68ctir.jpg)

After the cleanup had been completed and the cleaning guyz were on the way back to their shop, they were stopped on the side of the road for not having the proper license to transport ebola. (Like who knew you could get an ebola license?)  On the side of the highway, the deadly cargo was unloaded from their trailer and reloaded into a Dallas County hazmat response team vehicle.  Where it was taken from there is unknown.

(http://i57.tinypic.com/2emga5w.jpg)


Here is one of the workers of the clean up crew.  Totally unprotected, I at first thought she was one of the apartment occupants.  BUT look closely, and you can see part of the cleanup teams company logo "CG" the Cleaning Guys on the back of her shirt.  She is coming and going from inside the apartment with no suit, no facemask, no protection at all.

(http://i60.tinypic.com/2eztfus.jpg)

SO, I have to ask - Where is the CDC - Centers for Disease Control?  Why in the world would you just call somebody out of the phone book to handle cleaning up ebola?  Where is the Dallas County Hazmat response team?  Health & Human Services?  National Guard?  No one seems to know if the remaining occupants of the apartment were infected or not, but according to these photos it sure looks like they could come and go as they please.  I thought Homeland Security was running the show now - Where are they?  Who is in charge?  This whole thing is just beyond belief to me.

An entire article with more photos is located here from the daily mail - united kingdom

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780209/Ordeal-Dallas-Ebola-apartment-comes-end-Quarantined-family-moved-secret-location-Hazmat-team-arrived-FIVE-DAYS-victim-diagnozed.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780209/Ordeal-Dallas-Ebola-apartment-comes-end-Quarantined-family-moved-secret-location-Hazmat-team-arrived-FIVE-DAYS-victim-diagnozed.html)
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: grumpy old man on October 04, 2014, 05:55:42 PM
the governments response to the Ebola crisis.  Call me a conspirisy theorist but i believe Obama wants it here and wants it to kill millions.   Here is how they do it.    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro)
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: shooter on October 04, 2014, 06:11:58 PM
 here are few more reasons why it will spread,

  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-03/why-americas-not-ready-ebola-outbreak-1-photo (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-03/why-americas-not-ready-ebola-outbreak-1-photo)
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Gary on October 04, 2014, 08:04:40 PM
Level of patient care may be better here.  lol

(http://www.rense.com/1.imagesH/ebolahosp.jpg)

(https://farm1.staticflickr.com/110/278532627_0818b2ef5e_z.jpg)
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 04, 2014, 08:49:45 PM
Call me a conspirisy theorist but i believe Obama wants it here

OK, you are a conspiracy theorist.  So am I.   Obama is itching to find a reason to declare martial law and invoke E.O. 13603, suspend the Constitution and become El Presidente for Life.   

Say, I have an idea -- let's send 3,000 American soldiers to Liberia.  OK, so they don't have any adequate medical training and will just be used as "policemen", which will make the Liberians mad and they'll start shooting.  Then, when the soldiers get sick,  we shipped them back home to spread the infection.  How does that sound?  .... wait .... Obama's already thought of that.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: shooter on October 04, 2014, 08:59:28 PM
OK, you are a conspiracy theorist.  So am I.   Obama is itching to find a reason to declare martial law and invoke E.O. 13603, suspend the Constitution and become El Presidente for Life.   

Say, I have an idea -- let's send 3,000 American soldiers to Liberia.  OK, so they don't have any adequate medical training and will just be used as "policemen", which will make the Liberians mad and they'll start shooting.  Then, when the soldiers get sick,  we shipped them back home to spread the infection.  How does that sound?  .... wait .... Obama's already thought of that.


   Barbed wire, I need more barbed wire, and claymores, maybe barrels of foogas,
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 06, 2014, 02:48:11 PM
ABC's traveling doctor, just back from Libera, gave a growth rate for Ebola.  He said it doubles every two to four weeks.  Taking the long view that means that the rate of growth of Ebola is 840% per annum.  If it doubles every month then,  starting with one infection,  in one year the number of infections will be 2^12 more than the number now.  That's only 4,096.  At the end of the second year that one infection will produce over 16 million.  At the end of three years that one infection will produce over 68 million infections.  By the end of the fourth  everyone on the planet could be infected.  Of course, that won't happen because negative feedback effects on the growth rate (as expressed by the logistics curve) will diminish the number of infected ... the pool of uninfected will have shrunk, reducing the rate of growth.

This brings to mind one of the most deadly pandemics in recorded history: the 1918 influenza pandemic (H1N1).  According to Wikipedia:
Quote
The 1918 flu pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It infected 500 million people across the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and killed 50 to 100 million of them—three to five percent of the world's population—making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.

Infecting 500 million the lethality was between 10 and 20%.   Ebola's lethality is around 50%, but Ebola is not spread by birds or through the air.  Supposedly it is spread only by fluid contact.  Those that survive may be sources of information which could lead to a vaccine.  Or, the virus may mutate to a less lethal variety, like Influenza did.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: DenmanShooter on October 07, 2014, 07:33:07 AM
First, let's get one thing staight.  It isn't Ebola it is Obola.  He owns this stuff in the U.S.

Next, Obola will mutate either into something truly horrible, (think ZOMBIES, yes, real ZOMBIES) or into something totally benign or somewhere in between the common cold and shingles.

Either way you won't need to worry cuz you'll be dead by then.  Unless you are a Dem politico or donor. 

So cheer up!  You only live once we all gotta die of something.

For me, I smoke.  Nicotine  is used to make the treatment.  I figure I got enough in me to cure a few thousand. 

Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: shooter on October 07, 2014, 07:51:12 AM
 damn don't joke about shingles, My mom is getting cancer treatments, and got shingles, that is one nasty bug.   shes got a scar all the way around her back and stomach, that stuff is really nasty,

    as far as obola, I think sparkle fart is letting it in on purpose,he wants to get rid of people, I think he just basicially wants to mess up anything he can with this country.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Lmbass14 on October 07, 2014, 09:09:35 AM
damn don't joke about shingles, My mom is getting cancer treatments, and got shingles, that is one nasty bug.   shes got a scar all the way around her back and stomach, that stuff is really nasty,

    as far as obola, I think sparkle fart is letting it in on purpose,he wants to get rid of people, I think he just basicially wants to mess up anything he can with this country.

And of course, he'll blame Bush.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: DenmanShooter on October 07, 2014, 11:41:59 AM
damn don't joke about shingles, My mom is getting cancer treatments, and got shingles, that is one nasty bug.   shes got a scar all the way around her back and stomach, that stuff is really nasty,

    as far as obola, I think sparkle fart is letting it in on purpose,he wants to get rid of people, I think he just basicially wants to mess up anything he can with this country.
I am not joking. 
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 07, 2014, 01:49:06 PM
I think sparkle fart is letting it in on purpose ...

Sending 3,000 soldiers to "fight" Ebola?   After they get infected they'll be shipped back here for treatment we'll find out that it can spread by airborne transmission.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: Kodiak on October 09, 2014, 04:50:47 PM
The theoretical rates people like to put out, strike me as similar to when i was in school and would play with my calculator by entering 2*2*2=======....  Theoretically, as long as Ebola has been around, the earth should be humanless
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 09, 2014, 07:17:39 PM
The theoretical rates people like to put out, strike me as similar to when i was in school and would play with my calculator by entering 2*2*2=======....  Theoretically, as long as Ebola has been around, the earth should be humanless

Actually, Ebola first appeared in 1976 (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/):
Quote
The Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness which is often fatal if untreated. Ebola virus disease (EVD) first appeared in 1976 in 2 simultaneous outbreaks, one in Nzara, Sudan, and the other in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter occurred in a village near the Ebola River, from which the disease takes its name.

The current outbreak in west Africa, (first cases notified in March 2014), is the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976. There have been more cases and deaths in this outbreak than all others combined.

It's exponential growth is a power of "e" (2.718...) not 2.   Nf = Ni * e^(kT), where T is the time and "k" equals natural log of (e) divided by the time it takes the quantity to double or reduce by half.  All naturally occurring growths and declines are functions of e.   e^x rises more rapidly than 2^x.

Ebola has had rates of lethality varying between 10% and 90%, which shows that its various forms may have mutated or that the peoples it initially infected may have had some immunities due to infections of similar viruses which are no longer around.   However, with an annual percentage growth rate of 840% (double every month) and a 50% lethality, humanity could be wiped out within 3 1/2 years, assuming that logistic feedback didn't slow the rate, which  it will.

The places that are of greatest risk are those where population densities are high, medical facilities are marginal and educational levels are low.  Countries like China and India.  Metropolitans with populations over 10 million, like NYC, LA, Huston, Beijing, Bombay, Mexico City, Miami, etc...     With an incubation period of almost 3 weeks before symptoms appear, a lot of infected people could be walking,  driving and flying around, spreading Ebola unknowningly.   Consider that 1/3rd of all Americans have STDs and continue to have frequently sex with multiple partners.  Add to that  an unknown Ebola transmission and you have the recipe for disaster.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: ILoveCats on October 09, 2014, 07:43:31 PM
FYI the PBS "Nova" documentary on Ebola that aired last night was very well done. If you get a chance to watch a re-broadcast or watch it online, it's highly recommended. If you've never been to West Africa before it will give you a good idea of what the "health care" conditions are like there, and why this virus - or any virus - is especially difficult to deal with in that part of the world. 

On the more poorly done end of the spectrum... Last night on NPR's "all things considered" the interviewer was exhibiting her ignorance as she interviewed our Ambassaodor to Liberia and asked why some of the hospitals and clinics that were being built are behind schedule.  Here's a hint: imagine the most awful clay path you've ever traversed. Then imagine it's the only highway running the length of Nebraska. Then imagine that it's rained 60 inches in the last two months. Then imagine the truck you have to transport supplies with was built in France about fourty years ago.

Containment (not admitting citizens of those countries, or people who have traveled to/through those countries) would seem to have been the best policy.
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: FarmerRick on October 10, 2014, 01:26:02 PM


(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141009_ebola2.jpg)
Title: Re: Ebola
Post by: GreyGeek on October 10, 2014, 05:34:41 PM
An interesting article about the poor quality of protective gear that many medical personnel are using:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ebola-spread-shows-flaws-in-protective-gear-and-procedures/ (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ebola-spread-shows-flaws-in-protective-gear-and-procedures/)

The timeline of Thomas Duncan, the first person in the US to die from Ebloa, is revealing:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/timeline-how-ebola-made-its-way-u-s-n216831 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/timeline-how-ebola-made-its-way-u-s-n216831)
Quote
Sept. 20: Duncan takes United Flight 822 from Dulles to Dallas. Health officials later say Duncan was not showing symptoms while he was traveling. Ebola is spread only through direct contact with the body fluids of an infected patient who is symptomatic.

Sept. 24: Duncan begins to show symptoms.

Sept. 26: Duncan goes to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital. He is examined and sent home with antibiotics. He tells hospital staff that he recently traveled from Liberia, but that information is not passed along.

Sept. 28: Dallas fire and rescue is called to the apartment complex in Dallas where Duncan is staying. He is taken to the same hospital and admitted.

Sept. 29: A relative, Josephus Weeks, calls the 800 number of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and is told to call the state health department, according to Weeks' account. He is called back several times, he says. He later accuses health officials of not moving fast enough. A state health official later tells NBC News that a call took place and that Weeks and other relatives told health authorities that Duncan had no contact with anyone who had Ebola.

Sept. 30: Medical tests confirm that Duncan has Ebola. The CDC and state health officials call a news conference and alert the public.

Six days elapse between Ducan showing symptoms and his being hospitalized and isolated.  During that period of time how many people did he contact, OR, how many people contacted surfaces he touched?   The person in the Omaha hospital with Ebola said he made the mistake of touching the bed of an Ebola patient.