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General Categories => General Firearm Discussion => Topic started by: GreyGeek on March 20, 2013, 08:38:44 PM

Title: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: GreyGeek on March 20, 2013, 08:38:44 PM
and I was shocked.   All he had to do was tell  me to visit http://www.gunbroker.com/ (http://www.gunbroker.com/)

I did ... and there it was.  All the ammo, primers, powder, bullets, parts, etc... that I could ever want to buy ....  IF ... I wanted to pay 4X or 5X the former market price for it.

Remember that 1,400 rds of .22LR "Bucket of Bullets" I told you about that was at Scheel's for $70?   There were several offering those buckets for $240-$270, IF that is the final price of their auctions.
Want 5,000 rds of 9mm? 
Ammo was in bulk sizes ranging from 250 rd to 50,000 rounds.   
Want 5,000 small pistol primers?  It's there IF you want to pay $286, assuming that's the final bid price.

The  zombies  are staking out the stores and buying up everything in order to sell on auctions for 5X the normal price.

Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: gsd on March 20, 2013, 08:45:11 PM
I watched that Bucket O Bullets go for $277.  Great googly moogly thats like 0.18/round.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: kevins7189 on March 20, 2013, 08:52:03 PM
Greed (Latin, avaritia), also known as avarice or covetousness, is, like lust and gluttony, a sin of excess. However, greed (as seen by the church) is applied to a very excessive or rapacious desire and pursuit of material possessions. Thomas Aquinas wrote, "Greed is a sin against God, just as all mortal sins, in as much as man condemns things eternal for the sake of temporal things." In Dante's Purgatory, the penitents were bound and laid face down on the ground for having concentrated too much on earthly thoughts. Scavenging and hoarding of materials or objects, theft and robbery, especially by means of violence, trickery, or manipulation of authority are all actions that may be inspired by greed. Such misdeeds can include simony, where one attempts to purchase or sell sacraments, including Holy Orders and, therefore, positions of authority in the Church hierarchy.

As defined outside of Christian writings, greed is an inordinate desire to acquire or possess more than one needs, especially with respect to material wealth.

Question is, given the opportunity, would you (or do you currently) contribute to this crazy problem?
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: bkoenig on March 20, 2013, 08:52:24 PM
**Eyeing the unopened Bucket O Bullets in my basement***
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: gsd on March 20, 2013, 09:16:12 PM
**Eyeing the unopened Bucket O Bullets in my basement***

That would give you an excuse not to sell your Argentine...
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: daleemt on March 20, 2013, 10:32:07 PM
I think we are starting to hit the peek, and these guys are getting nervous, My LGS has already started dropping there gouging prices they set two weeks ago.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: Bucket on March 20, 2013, 10:50:01 PM
Classic economics.  Demand goes up with constant supply, price goes up.  If prices are artificially kept low, then shortages result (look at Cabelas, there's never anything on the shelf). 

High prices serve to put a damper on the demand and encourage manufacturers to increase production.  However that takes time. 

Several outcomes are possible.  Demand returns to "normal" at which time prices will come back down.  Manufacturers increase production to meet demand and prices come back down.  Manufacturers reach max capacity and there are constraints on further expansion of production and demand stays high, at which point, so do prices (think price of gas). 

I suspect we'll see a combination of the first two.  Demand will slacken a bit when the hysteria dies down, and manufacturers' marginal production increases will increase supply.  Eventually we'll see the bottom drop out then rebound back to normal.

Until then, you'll pay a premium for high demand products.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: kevins7189 on March 21, 2013, 12:05:22 AM
Not 'classic economics'.  You cannot compare gas to ammo... the economy would collapse if gas went from 3.50 to 10.50 overnite.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: camus on March 21, 2013, 06:52:26 AM
In this case the demand is rather artificial as it guided by hysteria and speculation.

I doubt we see much or any increase in manufacturing, they can recognize a false shortage. Eventually people will quit stockpiling, they only have some much money. Then the speculative buyers will be stuck when the bubble bursts.

And wow, I haven't spent much time on Gun Broker and have never looked at ammo there, sheesh.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: gsd on March 21, 2013, 07:24:18 AM
Gunbroker is good for the oddball stuff, i stay away from the mainstream stuff due to exactly what has been stated above.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: NENick on March 21, 2013, 08:06:16 AM
Classic economics.  Demand goes up with constant supply, price goes up.  If prices are artificially kept low, then shortages result (look at Cabelas, there's never anything on the shelf). 

High prices serve to put a damper on the demand and encourage manufacturers to increase production.  However that takes time. 

Several outcomes are possible.  Demand returns to "normal" at which time prices will come back down.  Manufacturers increase production to meet demand and prices come back down.  Manufacturers reach max capacity and there are constraints on further expansion of production and demand stays high, at which point, so do prices (think price of gas). 

I suspect we'll see a combination of the first two.  Demand will slacken a bit when the hysteria dies down, and manufacturers' marginal production increases will increase supply.  Eventually we'll see the bottom drop out then rebound back to normal.

Until then, you'll pay a premium for high demand products.
I'm hoping that a portion of the panic buying market calms down when supply catches up. Then they'll start needing to pull their money back out of the guns/ammo and create vast surpluses. Plenty of people are throwing every penny they've got at this stuff, and they'll need that cash at some point. I will then fill my basement to the ceiling with ammo. I'll create a horde of ammo that DHS would be envious of.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: NENick on March 21, 2013, 08:09:47 AM
.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: gwilly on March 21, 2013, 08:37:57 AM
Yeh, the shortage for the most part has been created by panic buying. More than likely though after the panic has passed supply will improve but I fear prices won't retreat back to the pre-panic binge.....kinda how it works.  :(

On a related topic .......I was looking for some primers & checked out the supply on GB. Plenty to be had there for a price too. What got my attention though is many.....the majority it seems.....are willing to ship them & bypass the hazmat fee & proper shipping requirements. That concerns me more than the price gouging.

Guess I'll wait to find them at a local establishment. (& wait....& wait.....& wait) ::)
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: CitizenClark on March 21, 2013, 08:59:53 AM
Classic economics.  Demand goes up with constant supply, price goes up.  If prices are artificially kept low, then shortages result (look at Cabelas, there's never anything on the shelf). 

High prices serve to put a damper on the demand and encourage manufacturers to increase production.  However that takes time. 

Several outcomes are possible.  Demand returns to "normal" at which time prices will come back down.  Manufacturers increase production to meet demand and prices come back down.  Manufacturers reach max capacity and there are constraints on further expansion of production and demand stays high, at which point, so do prices (think price of gas). 

I suspect we'll see a combination of the first two.  Demand will slacken a bit when the hysteria dies down, and manufacturers' marginal production increases will increase supply.  Eventually we'll see the bottom drop out then rebound back to normal.

Until then, you'll pay a premium for high demand products.

Heroic post, and absolutely right. There are tons of first-time buyers on the market and panic buyers snapping up ammo. High prices reflect the new level of demand, and, as you say, they encourage new market entrants to dedicate their capital to satisfying this new level of demand.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: CitizenClark on March 21, 2013, 09:02:36 AM
Not 'classic economics'.  You cannot compare gas to ammo... the economy would collapse if gas went from 3.50 to 10.50 overnite.


Tell that to my childhood friends in Louisiana.

If prices were actually allowed to adjust freely like that during a disaster, there would actually be a much better chance of desperate people getting gasoline after a disaster. It is the idiotic, commie price-gouging laws that exacerbate shortages and take away a natural market incentive for owners of capital to find its best and highest uses.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: GreyGeek on March 21, 2013, 09:23:29 AM
Guess I'll wait to find them at a local establishment.

That's what  I'm  going to do.   I want local suppliers to remain in business.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: GreyGeek on March 21, 2013, 09:30:36 AM
It is the idiotic, commie price-gouging laws that exacerbate shortages and take away a natural market incentive for owners of capital to find its best and highest uses.

Slightly off topic but exactly on point.  The CVS "body fat" requirement is a classic example of Marxist command and control driving the price  of health care through the roof, adding to the costs contributed by health insurance companies when they tossed out the standard mortality tables to determine rates and began dividing the population into groups: young & healthy on one end and old & sick on the other.  Then they gave the healthy ones cheep rates and extorted the old & sick.  A free market would amortize the costs over the entire population.   My wife's mother lived with us for 20 years, till the day she died.  In the latter years I handled her financial matters.   It amazed me to learn that the health insurance companies,  with their "coordination of benefits" scheme, were colluding to let Medicare pay first (and THEY were the brokers) and then they'd pay only the difference between what Medicare paid  and the plan's copay.   It was welfare to the corporations.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: CitizenClark on March 21, 2013, 09:59:20 AM
Slightly off topic but exactly on point.  The CVS "body fat" requirement is a classic example of Marxist command and control driving the price  of health care through the roof, adding to the costs contributed by health insurance companies when they tossed out the standard mortality tables to determine rates and began dividing the population into groups: young & healthy on one end and old & sick on the other.  Then they gave the healthy ones cheep rates and extorted the old & sick.  A free market would amortize the costs over the entire population.   My wife's mother lived with us for 20 years, till the day she died.  In the latter years I handled her financial matters.   It amazed me to learn that the health insurance companies,  with their "coordination of benefits" scheme, were colluding to let Medicare pay first (and THEY were the brokers) and then they'd pay only the difference between what Medicare paid  and the plan's copay.   It was welfare to the corporations.

Yes, this is essentially always the result of "regulation" of big business: regulatory capture by the big players, something which comes at the expense of the consumer and smaller, newer market entrants who want to compete.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: GreyGeek on March 21, 2013, 10:02:43 AM
regulatory capture by the big players

Well put.    The regulations make the barriers to entry so high that only the big players can enter or stay in the game.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: Bucket on March 21, 2013, 08:10:03 PM
Well put.    The regulations make the barriers to entry so high that only the big players can enter or stay in the game.

Exactly!
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: JimP on March 21, 2013, 08:45:03 PM
Quote
the shortage for the most part has been created by panic buying.

You don't suppose the supply has been skewed at all by your Uncle buying ammo in BILLION round lots, do you?

Price does not matter to Uncle Sugar, either: he'll just print more greenbacks...... making you (and everybody else that must work for a living) poorer in the process...... Two Birds/one stone.

Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: Bucket on March 22, 2013, 11:45:05 AM
You don't suppose the supply has been skewed at all by your Uncle buying ammo in BILLION round lots, do you?

Price does not matter to Uncle Sugar, either: he'll just print more greenbacks...... making you (and everybody else that must work for a living) poorer in the process...... Two Birds/one stone.


If the stories of government ammo purchases are true, that would probably have an impact as well since it would certainly soak up some of the supply.

That said, the buying frenzy is clearly underway, as evidenced by the posts of some of the members here.  There is lots of hoarding going on.  Every time I walk into a place that sells ammo, I make a swing by the gun counter to see what's available.  There's posts on this board about guys staking out Wally World at 4AM, or notifying members when a shipment comes in.  Imagine that behavior multiplied millions of times. 

I've managed to buy over 1000 rounds of 9mm on line over the past few months at relatively decent prices, you just have to be alert.  The ammo is out there, but there are lots of people looking to buy.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: gsd on March 22, 2013, 01:06:53 PM
The next person I see that says they are buying ammo to sit on it is gonna get laid out. I buy ammo to shoot it, not to watch it get dusty in the corner.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: Bucket on March 22, 2013, 01:19:39 PM
The next person I see that says they are buying ammo to sit on it is gonna get laid out. I buy ammo to shoot it, not to watch it get dusty in the corner.
You obviously don't grasp the threat of zombie apocalypse.  You need to keep a basic reserve just in case.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: gsd on March 22, 2013, 01:21:49 PM
You obviously don't grasp the threat of zombie apocalypse.  You need to keep a basic reserve just in case.


:)
That is what the 500 rnds each of 308 and 7.65 are for. Why let them get close?
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: altheman2 on March 22, 2013, 03:01:28 PM
The next person I see that says they are buying ammo to sit on it is gonna get laid out. I buy ammo to shoot it, not to watch it get dusty in the corner.


Sounds like backwards investment advice....buy high sell low
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: GreyGeek on March 22, 2013, 04:29:11 PM
Sounds like backwards investment advice....buy high sell low

What about buy low and sell low?

I ordered 8 lbs of Hodgson TiteGroup pistol powder about three months ago from Powder Valley.   I got an email from them today saying that they shipped!  With hazmat and shipping it came to $20/lb.     My plan is to trade a couple pounds of it for a brick of small pistol primers which  used to sell for $35/brick.

I also have a pound of Herco powder available to swap  for 9mm brass or 124 JHP bullets.
Title: Re: There is no ammo shortage! A guy proved it to me...
Post by: JimP on March 25, 2013, 08:28:38 AM
http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/articles/2003/the-great-arsenal-of-democracy.aspx?s=ordnance%20team&st=&ps= (http://www.nraila.org/news-issues/articles/2003/the-great-arsenal-of-democracy.aspx?s=ordnance%20team&st=&ps=)


"Lt. Gen. Levin H. Campbell, Jr., Chief of Ordnance from 1942 to 1946, proudly had this to say:
 
"From Pearl Harbor to V-J Day the Industry-Ordnance team furnished to the Army and 43 foreign nations 47 billion rounds of small arms ammunition,......"

Quote
If the stories of government ammo purchases are true, that would probably have an impact as well since it would certainly soak up some of the supply.

Ya think??!?!?!?


At a time when we are DEEPLY in debt, and have military operations ongoing in places around the world, the DHS is buying ammo at the rate of a major country engaged in a major land war ..... the amount of ammo the DHS wants in the next "3-5" years would have fed the .mil's guns in A-stan and Iraq for 20 years.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2013/03/11/1-6-billion-rounds-of-ammo-for-homeland-security-its-time-for-a-national-conversation/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2013/03/11/1-6-billion-rounds-of-ammo-for-homeland-security-its-time-for-a-national-conversation/)