Nebraska Legislature Election 2014

[AAllen]

Yes at least In Douglas County all the Dem households got early voting cards from the party, and they tend to throw lots of money around but look at how much they get from their big donors.  Unfortunatly the local Republican Party looks for 10s and 20s from us blue collar folks and just does not have that level of cash, that's why the big campaigns get depended upon to do those things.

[bkoenig]

Yes at least In Douglas County all the Dem households got early voting cards from the party, and they tend to throw lots of money around but look at how much they get from their big donors.  Unfortunatly the local Republican Party looks for 10s and 20s from us blue collar folks and just does not have that level of cash, that's why the big campaigns get depended upon to do those things.

That's what just blows my mind.  How expensive could it really be, in the grand scheme of things, to send out early voter cards to every (R) voter?  If the Democrats can afford it I'm sure the Republicans can too, even if there are more (R) voters.  It's like they're not even trying.  Even if they randomly chose half of the registered (R) voters it would be a huge improvement.

[AAllen]

That's what just blows my mind.  How expensive could it really be, in the grand scheme of things, to send out early voter cards to every (R) voter?  If the Democrats can afford it I'm sure the Republicans can too, even if there are more (R) voters.  It's like they're not even trying.  Even if they randomly chose half of the registered (R) voters it would be a huge improvement.

Well as a County Party Central Committee member I can tell you straight up they don't have the funds, they try to raise money but the state party gets the big donors and they spend it on the statewide candidates and hope that there is a trickle down to the local.  The Dems don't get large amounts (at least comparably) given to the state party, it goes to the local county or directly to candidates.  Also the Unions do a lot to help the Dem candidates in Omaha and Lincoln, they print the pieces with the early voter stuff for some of them, for some they get large groups of people to walk neighborhoods and deliver them to every door (a 4x6 postcard costs in the vicinity of .12 to print, and .23 to bulk mail).

The Douglas County Republican Party has raised enough money to get a candidate slate printed (a list of all the republican candidates running in the county) but is having trouble getting volunteers to help deliver them to people, so they end up needing to spend on postage and that breaks the bank because of the size of the piece (it is larger than a standard postcard). 

Since the Dems can't find candidates for all the races they can fit them all on a postcard and with the low price send multiple, one to each Dem household before the election, your an early voter you get one the same day your ballot arrives, maybe another one before the election with the early voter request card attached.  They seem to get more money and more volunteer help, that's why they keep winning in the cities.

And how expensive, well there are around 124,000 registered Republicans in Douglas County, so that's around 80,000 households so a simple postcard to each would cost $28,000 plus design cost, setting up the mailing for proper addressing etc. for bulk mail.  A bigger piece like what the DCRP has for a candidate slate would cost around .50 each so around $40,000 plus the extra's.  They usually also reach out to the Libertarians and undecided so that's another 77,000 voters and around another 50,000 households, I think you can see where this can become quite expensive. 

For info there are about 122,000 registered Democrats in Douglas County based upon numbers I saw beginning of the month.

[JTH]

District 2:  Ron Nolte who received an F from the NRA in the primary is putting up a good fight to unseat Bill Kintner, personally I think Bill should win but my inside sources say this is a much closer race than most would think.  It is an R vs. R race but the Dems have been backing Nolte and the Reps have not gotten strong behind their incumbent, Nolte has lots of business connections in the District and has been using them to put pressure on Bill.  This is a seat we need to defend.

This interests me.  Do we know why Nolte got an F from the NRA?  I know Ron a little, and every discussion we've had about guns (hmm---literally every discussion we've had has been about guns) has been positive.

Matter of fact, he lets me use some of his land as a shooting range sometimes.

He even has people come out periodically shooting various levels of NFA items, including full-auto.

It is also interesting to see that the Dems have been backing him.  I would have pegged him as a die-hard R. 

I'm not arguing against anything Allen has said, above---if he is saying it, I know he can back it up.  It just surprises me a lot.  (And I've met Kintner, and I know he abstained from at least one vote last year in which he knew what he should have voted, but he didn't want to make a doctor friend of his angry so he abstained.  This isn't supposition, this is actually what he SAID.  Don't like him much.)

Do we know why Nolte got an F?

[FarmerRick]

From here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Real-Ron-Nolte/332587186911427

Liberal Dick Holland, Liberal Frederick Simon, the extremely Liberal Nebraska Teachers Union, State AFL-CIO Unions, Firefighters Union, Liberal Union NAPE/AFSCME...pretty good group of supporters for a Liberal Democrat...and they all support Ron Nolte.

[JTH]

From here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Real-Ron-Nolte/332587186911427

I'm thinking that I'd prefer to use a reference that wasn't obviously created to cause problems for Nolte.  Not saying it is wrong, just that it obviously has a bias, and thus, is not necessarily reliable.

[FarmerRick]

I'm thinking that I'd prefer to use a reference that wasn't obviously created to cause problems for Nolte.  Not saying it is wrong, just that it obviously has a bias, and thus, is not necessarily reliable.

Agreed, just putting it out there.

[AAllen]

Do we know why Nolte got an F?

I wish I could say with any authority as to why he received an F, or for that matter why they upgraded to a D in the General Election.  The NRA does not give any reasons as to why they give the grades and they do not share any information from their surveys.  The only thing I can say is that if they gave a grade he had to do a survey, also from experience I know some candidates have been able to have conversations with the NRA after getting a low grade and get that grade raised.  Can't say that happened here because the NRA does not share information.

I have had three interaction with Ron Nolte one electronic where the information shared could have been from anyone (not our survey, he did not respond), it was polite and business like but offered no information about who Ron is.  One on the telephone which again was polite but very lacking in substance, and I approached him and some supporters in person at an event where I was met less than friendly.  I know a lot of people especially in the Cass County area have had dealings with him for a long time and consider him to be a friend, after the interactions I have had I could not say the same.

Yes, Ron's primary support, and he has received lots of it, has been from the Dems with Dick Holland (no friend of gun owners) and Frederick Simon (Simon Properties) giving large amounts of finances. Edit to add because seen other conversation while I was typing, I base my position here from info w/ accountability and disclosure.  Personally this has very little to do with my position on a candidate because all these people that give do so because they feel candidate A is more likely to agree with them than Candidate B, but if he is more likely to agree with the NEA (not saying that is always bad) than me will he side with them on gun issues where they oppose what we try to do?

Something that for me has been a major consideration in who to endorse/support this year has been who (by ideological position not name) they would support to the Committee on Committee's and the Executive Committee.  These two committees control the odds of our bills seeing the floor.  It would be nice to have a Judiciary Committee that agreed with us more than not, but at least a fair hearing where we didn't know before the hearing started the majority would be against us would be nice.  The Executive Committee is who assigns bills to committee's, bills like LB857 should have gone to the Government and Military affairs committee where it would have made it to the floor for debate rather than Ashford not bringing the bill up for a vote in Executive Committee until the session was over.  For several years we have been learning how these things happen and work in the legislature, now we have a strong enough handle on it that we are working to have a positive effect.

Bill is not perfect on that we would agree, but there is not a stronger supporter of our Second Amendment rights in the Legislature than he is.  He has made himself to be a lightning rod for criticism, that is part of the strategy he is using much like Ernie Chambers does.  Will he be able to be effective doing it, to some degree that is yet to be seen there has been some successes as well as some failures.

[AAllen]

Oh one other item I did not address, Ron is a Republican and it has been a hot issue amongst the County Republican parties on supporting one candidate (Bill or Ron) over the other.  In the mean time the County Democrat parties have decided to back/endorse Ron.  To my knowledge neither candidate has asked the State Party to endorse them and I have not seen any endorsement there for either.

[JTH]

Thanks for the additional info, AA.  I do appreciate you taking the time to write all that!

Yeah, it is a bad sign if Dems (as a group) all throw support behind a Republican---because it means they dislike the other guy more, and that's normally a GOOD sign (at least in much of this state) especially on rights issues.

And yes indeed, it sure would be nice to have the Judiciary committee actually supporting rights, instead of attempting to limit them.

[CitizenClark]

Something that for me has been a major consideration in who to endorse/support this year has been who (by ideological position not name) they would support to the Committee on Committee's and the Executive Committee.  These two committees control the odds of our bills seeing the floor.  It would be nice to have a Judiciary Committee that agreed with us more than not, but at least a fair hearing where we didn't know before the hearing started the majority would be against us would be nice.  The Executive Committee is who assigns bills to committee's, bills like LB857 should have gone to the Government and Military affairs committee where it would have made it to the floor for debate rather than Ashford not bringing the bill up for a vote in Executive Committee until the session was over.

For the sake of clarity, it should be noted that the Executive Committee references the bills, but generally speaking it does not vote on their substance (there are some exceptions). In this case, the issue is not that the Exec Comm didn't do their job, but that Ashford didn't bring the bill up for a vote in a Judiciary Committee _executive session_ until it was too late in the legislative session to make the agenda.

I didn't want anyone to be confused by the typo above.

[AAllen]

Thanks for the clarification there CitizenClark they reference the bills to the Committees and in the example it was the Judiciary Committee that failed to have a timely vote.  The issue with the make up of the Executive Committee is where they place bills, bills that the Liberal Minority of the Legislature have issues with go to committees that have a tendency to sit on the bills and not send them to the full Legislature for debate.

jthhapkido, thanks for your comments.  I try very hard to put away any personal biases and do the best possible research and balancing of the issues I can in making the endorsements for the PAF.  Sometimes those decisions are difficult because having spent time working with and talking to some of the Senators and Candidates there are personal relationships and friendships that get built, setting those aside and being an unbiased representative for all the NFOA's members is the goal.

[depserv]

We should all do what we can to get those inclined toward patriotism out to vote.  It's like a column of British regulars are marching through our area and we need to go rally the militia to fight them.  Numbers are what count.  Many loyal Americans have become demoralized and would rather sit home.  The last time they did that Obama got elected to a second term, so I like to ask them how their protest by not voting is working out for them. 

If I remember right G&A magazine made a list of how gun friendly each state government is, based on each state's laws, and Nebraska was in the bottom half.  This sad situation could be improved by getting a greater number of loyal Americans into the legislature.  This is the message we need to get out to patriots.  If they need to be called and reminded or given a ride or whatever we should do it.  You can be sure the enemy will.  Also, remind patriots that once you get on the absentee ballot list they will send you one each time and you do it all from home.  Very easy, and no excuse not to.  We do not need to concede control of our state to the enemy of freedom. 

Veto Oligarchy and Treason to the End (VOTE)!

[Dtrain323i]

well its looking like Lee Terry is out. You can probably chalk that up to the 5% of the vote that Steve Laird got.

[CitizenClark]

well its looking like Lee Terry is out. You can probably chalk that up to the 5% of the vote that Steve Laird got.

Or, alternatively, you could consider that candidates ought to work to earn the votes they get. If Lee Terry had been more of a friend to liberty, he might have gotten those votes. Instead they went to a protest candidate. That is what happens when a mediocre candidate runs in a close contest.

But FWIW, there is no persuasive evidence that Libertarian Party candidates pull more from the right than the left. Libertarianism contains something to offend everyone (who isn't a libertarian, that is): anti-prohibitionism and social liberty to anger the Right, and free markets and personal responsibility to drive the Left up the wall.

[bullit]

^^^^ What Clark said .....

[AAllen]

^^^^ What Clark said .....

Correct and from what I hear there was a lot of protest votes that went to Ashford as well.  His history of having been a Republican and talking conservative on some tax issues has helped him pick up some of the centrist protest votes while the more constitutional conservative protest vote went Libertarian.  Lots to learn from this race for those that do that stuff.

[Dtrain323i]

Or, alternatively, you could consider that candidates ought to work to earn the votes they get. If Lee Terry had been more of a friend to liberty, he might have gotten those votes. Instead they went to a protest candidate. That is what happens when a mediocre candidate runs in a close contest.

But FWIW, there is no persuasive evidence that Libertarian Party candidates pull more from the right than the left. Libertarianism contains something to offend everyone (who isn't a libertarian, that is): anti-prohibitionism and social liberty to anger the Right, and free markets and personal responsibility to drive the Left up the wall.

Oh I agree. I'm one of the ones who voted for Laird. I grew up as a republican but over the years my politics have evolved into "live your life any way you see fit, just don't force me to pay for it". For me, Terry's stance on SOPA turned me sour. And I'll admit his "Dang Straight" comments didn't help.

[AWick]

Basically don't make it hard for yourself by saying "Dang straight, I got a nice house and a kid in college!" during a government shutdown... i also feel like he should've showed the government shutdown time line showcasing Obama’s DOD not following the law that was passed to pay the troops and link that to Ashford/Pelosi.

[AWick]

So how did the NFOA-PAF endorsed candidates do?