Ebola

[FarmerRick]

What are you doing to prepare? Can we really prepare for it?

Theoretical infection rate in U.S. if Dallas is ground zero. This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher ROI (rate of infection) of 3.47

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47

If the ROI is 2.60...

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6

[RLMoeller]

I'm just going to trust my government to keep me safe and tell me what to do.

[kozball]

 

[NENick]

My superior immune system will keep me safe.

[bkoenig]

I'm not saying there's not a reason for concern, but keep in mind that in West Africa, which has pretty much the worst medical care in the world, it has so far only killed about 4,000 people.  We have a lot of advantages over them, such as basic sanitation and the fact that families typically don't prepare their own dead for burial.

[kozball]

I'm not saying there's not a reason for concern, but keep in mind that in West Africa, which has pretty much the worst medical care in the world, it has so far only killed about 4,000 people.  We have a lot of advantages over them, such as basic sanitation and the fact that families typically don't prepare their own dead for burial.

With that in mind, how would they deal with the dead here? Cremation?

[Gary]

Saying this is not a major problem, is doing a head in the sand routine.

Maybe the Kenyan got home sick, so he is bring things from his homeland to his adopted country?

I think bringing Ebola patients to the geographical center of the nation, has got to be a plan of someone very foolish, or very wise (depending on what side the players are on)   

[bkoenig]

Saying this is not a major problem, is doing a head in the sand routine.

Maybe the Kenyan got home sick, so he is bring things from his homeland to his adopted country?

I think bringing Ebola patients to the geographical center of the nation, has got to be a plan of someone very foolish, or very wise (depending on what side the players are on)   

Kenya is on the other side of the continent from the Ebola outbreak.

There's potential for an outbreak here, but it's not likely to be on the same scale as what we're seeing in a third world country with an early 20th century level medical system, tribal superstitions, and nonexistent sanitation.  Should we be concerned?  Absolutely.  We should take steps to stop any outbreak immediately.  At the same time, panic won't do anyone a bit of good.

[ghknives]

Some interesting facts that I can't verify but are from a source I trust. The CDC is scared sh*tlless. If not controlled immediately it will be a pandemic in a year or so. Protective clothing, masks & procedures are not enough. If they were, the attending medical personnel wouldn't be getting sick. Development of antiviruses are almost impossible because the virus mutates faster than cultures can be grown to develop the cure. In it's present mutant form it is air born & able to infect animals and birds.

[farmerbob]

http://patriotoutdoornews.com/11597/msnbc-ya-know-whos-really-blame-ebola-mess-nra#BrjvC82GUPzZ209s.01

Leave it to MSNBC.

[Lmbass14]

Let's review ebola patients.  Texas, Hawaii, Colorado, Maryland, and DC. 

Naw, move along now, nothing to see.

[GreyGeek]

Let's review ebola patients.  Texas, Hawaii, Colorado, Maryland, and DC. 

Naw, move along now, nothing to see.

You missed Omaha.

[GreyGeek]

What are you doing to prepare? Can we really prepare for it?

Theoretical infection rate in U.S. if Dallas is ground zero. This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher ROI (rate of infection) of 3.47

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47

If the ROI is 2.60...

Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6

Something isn't right with your figures, FarmerRick.
The doubling time is equal to approximately 70/(% annual growth rate).
So, 70/3.47 = 20 years doubling time.
Or, 70/(appx doubling time) = annual  % growth rate
From 3 dead to 248,000 dead in a single year is way more than 3.47% ROI.

[shooter]

Something isn't right with your figures, FarmerRick.
The doubling time is equal to approximately 70/(% annual growth rate).
So, 70/3.47 = 20 years doubling time.
Or, 70/(appx doubling time) = annual  % growth rate
From 3 dead to 248,000 dead in a single year is way more than 3.47% ROI.

    Your making my head hurt again,

[FarmerRick]

Something isn't right with your figures, FarmerRick.
The doubling time is equal to approximately 70/(% annual growth rate).
So, 70/3.47 = 20 years doubling time.
Or, 70/(appx doubling time) = annual  % growth rate
From 3 dead to 248,000 dead in a single year is way more than 3.47% ROI.

These figures were lifted from a thread on ARFCOM.  From what I understand the 3.47 is a rate of infection, not a percentage. Average of 3.47(or 2.6 in the second set) new people infected by each currently infected person. That then grows exponentially.

[GreyGeek]

These figures were lifted from a thread on ARFCOM.  From what I understand the 3.47 is a rate of infection, not a percentage. Average of 3.47(or 2.6 in the second set) new people infected by each currently infected person. That then grows exponentially.

ROI or annual percentage growth rate.  It doesn't matter.  ALL naturally occurring growth (or declines) occur exponentially (i.e., according to the powers of e).  Be it biological processes like  the growth of viruses or bacteria, or the physical growth or decay of non-living matter, like radioactive decay.   Extrapolations of exponential growth can rapidly lead to unrealistically high numbers.

The rate of change of ebola infections, dx, as a function of time, dt, is proportional to the number of infections to begin with, X.   To make it an equality a constant is introduced.  It's primary purpose is to establish the units of measure.    dx/dt = kX.    Integrating that relation leads to:
X(t) = X(0)e^kt
where k is equal to 100*ln(2)/(doubling time)  (or half-life in the case of radioactive decays).

There are other forms of polynomial growth but exponential growth  overtakes them all.   However, another reason why the figures from that forum are unrealistic is that negative feedback builds up as X(t) becomes large, leading to reductions in the rate of growth.  The ROI of Ebola would naturally reduce when the number of uninfected hosts shrink.  This gives rise to the Logistics Growth model, which is represented by the classic sigmoid curve:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Logistic-curve.svg

Here is an excellent summary of exponential grow: http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/how-populations-grow-the-exponential-and-logistic-13240157

I am not disagreeing with the fact that an exponentially growing number of people infected with Ebola is a serious thing, and would result in a large  number of deaths, but those figures from that website look very strange.

[Lmbass14]

You missed Omaha.

GG, didn't miss Omaha, actually had it on the list before deleting it, didn't count Omaha because the person is coming here and hopefully, will be in a body suit so he won't get people infected.  The other cities it's unknown how many people will get infected.

[GreyGeek]

GG, didn't miss Omaha, actually had it on the list before deleting it, didn't count Omaha because the person is coming here and hopefully, will be in a body suit so he won't get people infected.  The other cities it's unknown how many people will get infected.

True, I was jumping the gun a bit.   However, assurances that Ebola is spread only by contact with bodily fluids is not re-assuring or accurate.  MANY viruses are spread from person to person with insect vectors.  It only takes one viral particle transfered via the proboscis of a Mosquito or the bite of a bedbug to infect someone.  Is the Ebola virus so host specific that it cannot survive more than a few seconds outside the host?     How long does an Ebola virus remain viable while residing on the surface of a door handle, or the table of a diner, or  drifting by while floating in the air on particles of mucus sneezed moments before?  Why is it that medical personal in full body protective clothing, and throughly washed down with Chlorine solution before removing the clothing STILL get the virus?

And,  it amazes me how many journalism majors have suddenly become expert biologists.

[Gary]

GG, didn't miss Omaha, actually had it on the list before deleting it, didn't count Omaha because the person is coming here and hopefully, will be in a body suit so he won't get people infected.  The other cities it's unknown how many people will get infected.

90,000 people a year die from infections they catch in hospitals.  Catch in hospitals.  Why is it I find impossible to believe all waste matter , clothing, food trays, infected room air, and a miriad of other containmens will stay contained from the visits of Ebola patients to a Omaha hospital?

We can not control 6'6" inmates but we can contain things we cannot see in the air?   

Ebola is not being treated in Omaha, it is being enoculated in Omaha.   

This admin is doing anything it can to sink America.

[Gary]

True, I was jumping the gun a bit.   However, assurances that Ebola is spread only by contact with bodily fluids is not re-assuring or accurate.  MANY viruses are spread from person to person with insect vectors.  It only takes one viral particle transfered via the proboscis of a Mosquito or the bite of a bedbug to infect someone.  Is the Ebola virus so host specific that it cannot survive more than a few seconds outside the host?     How long does an Ebola virus remain viable while residing on the surface of a door handle, or the table of a diner, or  drifting by while floating in the air on particles of mucus sneezed moments before?  Why is it that medical personal in full body protective clothing, and throughly washed down with Chlorine solution before removing the clothing STILL get the virus?

And,  it amazes me how many journalism majors have suddenly become expert biologists.

How true.  I would not drop by that hospital for lunch in the dining room. 

I work with blood borne pathogens daily.  Gone are the days of wiping things off with whatever and calling it good.  In my studio I do not allow nervous throat clearing or coughing by people. I ask them politely to stop or leave.  A throat virus in someone can go airborne through a cough and get into a skin wound causing a greater complication for the new host. 

One preventive measure to reduce the enoculated infections from one person to another is saline spray into the throat of people entering hospitals.  Hospitals seldom do this, as it worries people, but the saline spray weighs down viruses and keeps people from spreading illness.  That and frequent hand washing.

My wife saw a doctor the other day for a sore back.  The doctor entered the room and washed his hands.  Good right?   Well not really.  He just kind of rinced them off, no soap, no vigorous drying of hands after, and then he shakes our hands with his dripping wet hands.    If the doctors are that out to lunch about simple hand washing, we are in big trouble.