I would choose one of the following:
1) NFOA should concentrate most of it's efforts on fighting any new Federal restrictions until the current threat of new bans has passed.
2) NFOA should split it's efforts equally between bettering Nebraska's CCW and self-defense laws, and fighting any proposed Federal AWB's.We really have a piss poor picture of what exactly is going to be the action at the federal level. We don't really know what kind of support or chances any such bill would have, although it is higher than in previous years.
We still don't know what the hell the NRA's announcement meant, so their level of commitment to resisting new legislation is unknown. If the NRA backs down, I fear that pretty much guarantees an AWB unless other organizations and individuals focus their efforts to compensate. The NRA backing down would give tremendous amounts of ammo to the antis, so even with compensation of efforts, I would doubt it could be stopped.
We also don't know what the societal (voting) pressures will become in January, or whenever this bill is in the hot seat. American's attention span is extremely short, so the "hot topic" people talking about anti-2A legislation will likely be back to talking about Monsanto or some other thing they've chosen to direct their hate at, and, unlike us, will not be writing representatives and engaging in PR campaigns about it.
Unfortunately, there are other highly contested fights going on in the gov right now, and this provides an excellent red-herring to make it look like they are doing something. Some members of gov may see this as a convenient distraction for the masses. If my sources are correct, the first AWB passed as the result of a backroom deal in exchange for troops in Haiti. This COULD be used as a bargaining chip for other issues as well.
I've hear some people say that a new AWB would be struck down by SCOTUS, especially since Heller. I am less confident, but have nothing intelligent to say as to why. Perhaps a lawyer could chime in.
Believe it or not, the majority of Americans did not support an AWB before Newtown. I am sure that number has grown, but we really have no idea of by how much. The only polls seen since then are not acceptable (improper sampling methods, sample sizes to small, etc.) There is no data available for questions concerning mag capacity limits.
As a reminder: slight majorities do not get much done in government, it really comes down to stratification by location, as far as voter influence.Are you for or against a law which would make it illegal to manufacture, sell, or possess semi-automatic guns known as assault rifles?
2011 Oct 6-9
For: 43%
Against: 53%
No Opinion: 5%
2004 Oct 11-14
For: 50%
Against: 46%
No Opinion: 4%
Next, I'm going to read a list of actions Congress could take this year. Please say whether you strongly favor, favor, oppose or strongly oppose Congress doing each of the following this year. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
Pass stronger gun control laws
2011 Jan 14-16
Strongly Favor: 26
Favor: 23
Oppose: 23
Strongly Oppose: 27
No Opinion: 2
Source: Gallup 2012
Now for some good news. We do know:
1) The AR-15 is more mainstream now
2) Rs still control the house.
3) The makeup of the house and senate is basically the same when previous AWBs and gun control measures were quashed or ignored, however that was pre-Newtown, and some elected individuals have shown signs of wavering.
In short, I withhold my answer until we have a better "operational picture."
