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Author Topic: How long before the crash?  (Read 1640 times)

Offline ghknives

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How long before the crash?
« on: February 28, 2013, 10:04:12 AM »
Pretty scary when you really look at it.  http://www.usdebtclock.org/

I do not love the bright sword for it's sharpness, nor the arrow for it's swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I only love that which they defend.        J.R.R. Tolkein

Offline GreyGeek

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2013, 12:19:34 PM »
I don't entirely trust those counters.
Here is the Nebraska counter: http://www.usdebtclock.org/state-debt-clocks/state-of-nebraska-debt-clock.html

Population: 1,844,400
Unemployment: 37,597  (2% of total pop, 6% of working age residents)
On food stamps: 363, 032 (19.6% of the total pop.  Wow! 1 out  of 5)
Revenue: $16 Billion/yr  (I worked at Revenue.  That's about right)
Spending: $21 Billion
Debt per person: $7,970

I doubt the implication that Nebraska is spending $4  Billion more  per year than  it is taking in as revenues.

Every state except  Vermont has a balanced-budget amendment, which is a constitutional rule requiring that the state cannot spend more than its income.  Nebraska is a balanced budget state.

Nebraska’s “balanced budget” requirement comes in the form of a limit to the issuance of debt. Article 13, Section 1 of the 1875 Constitution says the State may not contract debts greater than $100,000. Nebraska law forbids the carrying over of a deficit from one year to the next. In spite of this law, budget deficits were reported on the State’s Budgetary Comparison Schedules within the last three years’ annual reports.

The  statement for the year ending June 30, 2012 is here: http://das.nebraska.gov/accounting/cafr/cafr2012.pdf

It states:
Since the State’s Constitution generally prohibits the State from incurring debt, the Statement of Net Assets presents few long-term liabilities (shown as non current liabilities), which total only $550 million ($501 million in 2011). The majority of such liabilities are for claims payable for workers’ compensation, medical excess liability, litigation, unemployment insurance, and employee health insurance totaling $118 million for 2012 ($137 million for 2011), Medicaid claims for $252 million ($190 million in 2011), and the calculated amount for vested sick leave due employees when they retire and accrued vacation of $139 million in 2012 ($130 million for 2011). Other minor amounts of long-term liabilities consist chiefly of capital lease obligations (See Note 8 to the Financial Statements), which totaled $25 million at June 30, 2012 and $15 million of obligations under other financing arrangements (See Note 9 to the Financial Statements). There was also a net pension obligation of $1.2 million (See Note 12 to the Financial Statements).
...
At the end of June 30, 2012, the State is able to report positive balances in all of the three categories of net assets.


I was working at Revenue when the tax receipts fell dramatically  following 9/11.   Revenue normally hired 70 or more temporary workers during the tax season, but didn't have the money to pay them during the crunch.   The tax commissioner at the time, Mary Jane Egar, did an excellent job of keeping Revenue expenditures under control.     When she asked employees to spend time on the mail line,  and other tasks that temps did,  in addition to their regular work, she was on the mail line as well. She ate her own dog food.   

Because I have reasonable evidence negating the Nebraska "debt counter",  I view the  Federal  counter with suspicion. 


Offline ghknives

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2013, 12:27:05 PM »
I also wondered about the accuracy however it is food for thought
I do not love the bright sword for it's sharpness, nor the arrow for it's swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I only love that which they defend.        J.R.R. Tolkein

Offline Gary

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2013, 02:25:10 PM »
A plane will crash when a wing falls off, it slows down to a stop at altitude, it runs out of fuel, it ices over on the control surfaces, the pilots quit flying the plane and take a nap after smoking pot, or when it breaks in half.

If you have a plane that is trying to do all of the above, all at once, not having a crash would take a miracle.

The USA is that plane, and I see no signs of Devine intervention taking place.

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Attention, this is your captain speaking...........................


Offline abbafandr

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2013, 08:20:05 PM »
Things have been going bad for decades.  Just because something is inevitable doesn't mean it is imminent.

Offline FarmerRick

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2013, 08:38:25 PM »
the crash is happening as we speak, it's just in super slo-mo. 

a website I like to keep an eye on: www.zerohedge.com
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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2013, 11:23:26 PM »
When other countries find out that their gold place here in the good ole usa was sold years ago... teotwawki rollercoaster begins.

Offline abbafandr

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2013, 05:39:53 AM »
the crash is happening as we speak, it's just in super slo-mo. 

a website I like to keep an eye on: www.zerohedge.com


On that line, here's an old quote from Ernest Hemingway: "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists." :angry:

Offline GreyGeek

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Re: How long before the crash?
« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2013, 02:12:16 PM »
the crash is happening as we speak, it's just in super slo-mo.

I believe that is true.   I suspect that it began with the housing bubble burst in 2008, which was set up when Jimmy Carter and the Dems signed the Community Reinvestment Act, which was strengthened by Clinton.   It was a ticking time-bomb.  In 2001 and 2006 the Conservatives warned Congress about the pending problem but the Dems played the race card to shut it down.

Video  of CSPAN recordings  in  the mid 1990s, leading to the resignation of Franklin Raines.


And Barney Frank denied that there was a house bubble problem.  Later,  he blamed the Republicans.



« Last Edit: March 05, 2013, 02:14:42 PM by GreyGeek »