I would question the accuracy of the reading. Did you have a cover on the Chrono? Chrono too close to get accurate reading? 12 feet seems plenty far enough away to not be affected by muzzle flash. Is the chrono new, or do you have some experience with it? Seating depth alone would not cause a wide variance. Maybe the sun peaked out during that set and it was cloudier during the others?
I had the sunshades on. I've had this chrony for about a year haven't had any issues with it. I ran some loads across it that I had worked up last fall and the readings this morning were almost identical to when I first developed that load.
Could seating them too far forward (towards the rifling) affect the contact pressure and distribution of forces between the case and bullet?
How did they compare to the next level down? What were your velocities and target locations?
This was my first thought. It seems to make sense. The velocities are increasing as the distance to the rifling closes down. I'm still not sure why the readings are so erratic though. My jug of powder was almost empty when I loaded these...would that cause any inconsistencies?
#1: 2789, 2818, 2800 / 0.50'' group (one ragged hole)
#2: 2694, 2804, 2982 / 0.50'' group (one ragged hole)
#3: 3006, 2857, 2838 / 1.25'' group
The velocities are in the order they were shot.