NFOA MEMBERS FORUM
General Categories => Events => Topic started by: Dan W on January 06, 2013, 03:16:42 PM
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Click this link for tickets https://secure.piryx.com/donate/TlWMl9HL/NFOA/Raffle
Drawing will be Sunday Feb. 17, 2013, 4pm at Alliance Gun Show.
Winner need not be present to be eligible.
Only 1000 tickets printed, odds of winning no greater than 1 in 1000.
Raffle prize is a stripped AR-15 lower receiver, not a complete rifle.
Winner must be able to legally own the AR-15 lower receiver, which is regulated as a firearm, and complete ATF Form 4473 transfer paperwork at Zombie Tactical in Bellevue, NE prior to taking receipt of raffle prize.
NFOA Board of Directors members and immediate family are ineligible to win.
For additional information email: info@nebraskafirearms.org.
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Tickets are now available at Moeller Arms in La Vista, NE.
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The are also available at Netties Fine Mexican Food in Bellevue.
For folks out west be watching more sites coming soon.
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Only 1000 tickets printed, odds of winning no greater than 1 in 1000.
No LESS than 1 in 1000. And if you buy more tickets, your odds improve. Think about it---drop a quick $20 for tickets, and your odds go from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 250!
And since I can't win it (dang it!) someone else might as well.
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No LESS than 1 in 1000. And if you buy more tickets, your odds improve. Think about it---drop a quick $20 for tickets, and your odds go from 1 in 1000 to 1 in 250!
And since I can't win it (dang it!) someone else might as well.
Soooo buying 4 tickets will increase my chances by 75%? Something doesn't add up....Just giving you a hard time. I will be picking some up from Rod very shortly...
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Haha math is off a bit there...and I failed math.
I may snag a few for giggles, i cant finish the build i have let alone need another in the cabinet...:)
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Each ticket would hold a 1 in 1000 chance of winning - so probability of winning goes up to 4 in 1000, or 1 in 996. Still a very worthy cause.
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Haha math is off a bit there...and I failed math.
I may snag a few for giggles, i cant finish the build i have let alone need another in the cabinet...:)
No, folks, I'm not kidding. If you buy four tickets, your chances increase to one in 250.
Seriously. :)
Just one ticket --- one in a thousand chance. Four tickets----one in two hundred fifty.
Buy ten tickets and you have a one in a hundred chance of winning---AND, I'll note, these calculations are the worst the odds can be, since they might not sell all thousand of the tickets...
Think of it---if they only sell 500 of the tickets, and you bought 10 of them....you have a one-in-fifty chance of winning!
For those who still don't believe:
Probability of 4 in 1000 = 4/1000 = .004 = 1/250 = 2/500 = 4/1000
Not 1 in 996---4 out of 1000. Or 2 out of 500. Or 1 out of 250. (Seriously. I teach this stuff.)
(gsd---if you win, I'll be happy to take it off for your hands for free! You know, to relieve you of the responsibility, since you are already busy with a build...)
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I can't help it.....this is what happens when you get a math/science teacher started! (This is not my fault, you guys started this!)
Think of it this way: The chances of rolling a "1" on a die is 1 in 6, right? The chances of rolling a "1" or a "2" on the die is 2 in 6--but this is ALSO 1 in 3. (Which makes sense---there are only six choices for a die roll, and we have just said two of them are good--and 2/6 = 1/3. So, a probability of 1 in 3.)
Same for the raffle. If you buy one ticket, your chances are 1 in 1000. (1/1000) If you buy two tickets, you now have a 2/1000 probability -- which since 2/1000 = 1/500, it means you have a one in 500 chance of winning.
Four tickets: 4/1000 = 2/500 = 1/250. So, a one in 250 chance. You have four times as many tickets, so four times as much chance to win.
(I almost made a graph of the probability and everything---don't make me go there! :o )
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No, folks, I'm not kidding. If you buy four tickets, your chances increase to one in 250.
Seriously. :)
Just one ticket --- one in a thousand chance. Four tickets----one in two hundred fifty.
Buy ten tickets and you have a one in a hundred chance of winning---AND, I'll note, these calculations are the worst the odds can be, since they might not sell all thousand of the tickets...
Think of it---if they only sell 500 of the tickets, and you bought 10 of them....you have a one-in-fifty chance of winning!
For those who still don't believe:
Probability of 4 in 1000 = 4/1000 = .004 = 1/250 = 2/500 = 4/1000
Not 1 in 996---4 out of 1000. Or 2 out of 500. Or 1 out of 250. (Seriously. I teach this stuff.)
(gsd---if you win, I'll be happy to take it off for your hands for free! You know, to relieve you of the responsibility, since you are already busy with a build...)
If you are looking at percentage, your math is correct but not for statistical probability, which is a whole different realm of applied mathematics. Assuming all 1000 tickets were sold each ticket maintains a 1 in 1000 chance of winning - that is a constant no matter how many tickets you own. So that gives you 4 chances of 1 in 1000 not 1 in 250.
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Well i guess i just increased my chances to 1 in 200. :)
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If you are looking at percentage, your math is correct but not for statistical probability, which is a whole different realm of applied mathematics. Assuming all 1000 tickets were sold each ticket maintains a 1 in 1000 chance of winning - that is a constant no matter how many tickets you own. So that gives you 4 chances of 1 in 1000 not 1 in 250.
For statistical probability---4 chances in 1000 IS 1 in 250. Given a pool of 1000 ticket stubs, four of which have your name on them---there is a 1 in 250 chance that a stub with your name on it will be chosen.
Seriously.
Again, look at the dice example. The raffle works exactly the same way, it is merely a larger pool to start with.
If, on a die, you said "I win on a roll of 1, 2, or 3". Each one of those choices has a 1 in 6 chance. Three of them (3 out of 6) gives you a chance to win. Therefore, your chance is 3/6 or 1 in 2---which is 50%. This isn't a surprise, since 1, 2, and 3 are half of the possible sides.
(If you don't like that one, again: you win on a roll of a die with a 1 or a 2 showing up. Each has a 1/6 chance. So your total chance of winning [there being a limited number of choices of results] is 2/6 or 1/3. Which again, makes sense because you win on 1/3 of the possible faces of the die showing up.)
The raffle is the same. If you have 4 tickets, each of which have a 1 in 1000 chance, then you have a 4 in 1000 chance of winning. Out of the possible pool of choices (1000 of them), 4 of them will cause you to win. 4/1000 = 1/250. Probability is 4/1000 = .004 = .4% ---but this is the same as the probability of 1 in 250. (Check the math. :) 1/250 = .004
This IS statistical probability. There is one draw out of the possible pool. Four chances out of 1000 will cause you to win. And you have a 1/250 chance of winning. You are correct that each ticket only has a 1/1000 chance of winning. However, YOUR chances of winning is the aggregate of each ticket's chances.
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Well i guess i just increased my chances to 1 in 200. :)
GSD bought five tickets. Magic!
And if you win, you are going to give it to me, right? Since you already have a build going, plus another potential in your safe? :)
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Is that in mils or MOA? Also, I think your BC might be a bit high.
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GSD bought five tickets. Magic!
And if you win, you are going to give it to me, right? Since you already have a build going, plus another potential in your safe? :)
I doubt that. It may be getting the special treatment.
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For statistical probability---4 chances in 1000 IS 1 in 250. Given a pool of 1000 ticket stubs, four of which have your name on them---there is a 1 in 250 chance that a stub with your name on it will be chosen.
Seriously.
Again, look at the dice example. The raffle works exactly the same way, it is merely a larger pool to start with.
If, on a die, you said "I win on a roll of 1, 2, or 3". Each one of those choices has a 1 in 6 chance. Three of them (3 out of 6) gives you a chance to win. Therefore, your chance is 3/6 or 1 in 2---which is 50%. This isn't a surprise, since 1, 2, and 3 are half of the possible sides.
(If you don't like that one, again: you win on a roll of a die with a 1 or a 2 showing up. Each has a 1/6 chance. So your total chance of winning [there being a limited number of choices of results] is 2/6 or 1/3. Which again, makes sense because you win on 1/3 of the possible faces of the die showing up.)
The raffle is the same. If you have 4 tickets, each of which have a 1 in 1000 chance, then you have a 4 in 1000 chance of winning. Out of the possible pool of choices (1000 of them), 4 of them will cause you to win. 4/1000 = 1/250. Probability is 4/1000 = .004 = .4% ---but this is the same as the probability of 1 in 250. (Check the math. :) 1/250 = .004
This IS statistical probability. There is one draw out of the possible pool. Four chances out of 1000 will cause you to win. And you have a 1/250 chance of winning. You are correct that each ticket only has a 1/1000 chance of winning. However, YOUR chances of winning is the aggregate of each ticket's chances.
Here is a simpler formula.
1000 tickets sold and you bought 4 of them. That leaves 996 tickets out of 1000 that aren't yours.
996 / 1000 = .996
There is a .996% chance that you will NOT win.
Inversely:
4/1000 = 2/500 = 1/250 - I'll agree there. But that is just breaking down to the lowest fraction, not finding your odds.
You MUST now divide 1 by 250 (the step you are missing) which calculates to .004 - your odds of winning.
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Here is a simpler formula.
1000 tickets sold and you bought 4 of them. That leaves 996 tickets out of 1000 that aren't yours.
996 / 1000 = .996
There is a .996% chance that you will NOT win.
Inversely:
4/1000 = 2/500 = 1/250 - I'll agree there. But that is just breaking down to the lowest fraction, not finding your odds.
You MUST now divide 1 by 250 (the step you are missing) which calculates to .004 - your odds of winning.
Actually, 1 in 250 ARE your odds. (1:249) Which equates to having a 0.4% chance of winning. Technically speaking "0.004" aren't odds because you'd need two comparative numbers for it to be odds, that is instead your "chance" of winning. Of course, we also say you have a 1 in 250 chance of winning, so there is crossover...
Which is why your chance of NOT winning is 99.6%, not .996%. (Your chance of not winning is indeed .996, which equates to 99.6%.)
Like I said in the beginning---your chance for winning is 1/250 (0.004). Your odds for winning are 1 in 250.
...but you have to buy four raffle tickets first. :)
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Actually, 1 in 250 ARE your odds. (1:249) Which equates to having a 0.4% chance of winning. Technically speaking "0.004" aren't odds because you'd need two comparative numbers for it to be odds, that is instead your "chance" of winning. Of course, we also say you have a 1 in 250 chance of winning, so there is crossover...
Which is why your chance of NOT winning is 99.6%, not .996%. (Your chance of not winning is indeed .996, which equates to 99.6%.)
Like I said in the beginning---your chance for winning is 1/250 (0.004). Your odds for winning are 1 in 250.
...but you have to buy four raffle tickets first. :)
I'm glad you're not teaching math to my kids.
There will be a maximum of 1000 tickets sold. Each ticket has a 1 in 1000 chance of winning.
Buying 4 tickets gives you a 4 in 1000 chance of winning. Buying 4 tickets does not magically reduce the number of tickets sold to 250.
Sheesh. ::)
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Egads! It's been 4 decades since my prob/stats class in HS. :(
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Math fight!
Four One-thousands == One Two-hundred-fifty-iths (it's math; not English :laugh: )
4/1000 == 1/250 == 0.004 == 0.4%
So a reduction of the fraction would indicate that 4 tickets is a 0.4% chance of winning.
5/1000 == 1/200 == 0.005 == 0.5%
So 5 tickets increases your chances to half a percent.
This is still WAY better odds than the lottery. Also, we are all nerds for caring about this. You know that, right? :P
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I'm glad you're not teaching math to my kids.
There will be a maximum of 1000 tickets sold. Each ticket has a 1 in 1000 chance of winning.
Buying 4 tickets gives you a 4 in 1000 chance of winning. Buying 4 tickets does not magically reduce the number of tickets sold to 250.
Sheesh. ::)
[sigh] Folks, I never said that the number of tickets gets reduced to 250. I said the ODDS are 1 in 250.
And folks---that number is correct. I'm sorry you are having trouble with math, I'm sorry your teachers in high school didn't do a better job---and I'm sorry you want people who don't know math to teach it instead.
I'm going to let this go after this post, because apparently some people just want to have their opinion---but seriously, folks: 4/1000 = 1/250. As such, if you have 4 tickets out of 1000, and each ticket has an equal chance of being chosen, and only one ticket will be chosen (all of which has been assumed thus far by everyone) --- then your odds of winning are 1 in 250. They are ALSO 4 in 1000 -- but standard form means reducing them.
And those two sets of odds (4 in 1000 and 1 in 250) are the same.
If you don't want to believe that, that's certainly up to you. However, unfortunately for you, math doesn't really care about your opinion---it is either right or wrong.
If you buy one ticket, your odds: 1 in 1000
If you buy two tickets, your odds: 1 in 500
If you buy four tickets, your odds: 1 in 250
If you buy eight tickets, your odds: 1 in 125.
I'm sorry to hear that this doesn't make sense to you---however, please don't harm your kids by insisting that your opinion is more important than actually being correct.
Feel free to check with any probability/statistics book, or better yet, with any high school student who can do math.
(We all do know that 4/8 = 2/4 = 1/2, right? This is no different.)
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I was a math major in college and I endorse jthhapkido's calculations. What he is stating is VERY simple...to math geeks at least. Statistics were not my strong point, but what he is presenting is a fundamental principle.
Think of it this way...
jthhapkido's examples of buying one, two, four or eight tickets is spot on, but what if you bought ALL of the tickets sold? What would your odds be of winning? They would be 1,000 in 1,000, or when reduced they would be 1 in 1. That is to say, they are going to draw one ticket, and since you own ALL of them, you will hold the winning ticket. Or you are 100% guaranteed to be holder of the winning ticket.
Assuming all 1,000 tickets were sold, if you bought 500 tickets, your odds of winning will be 500 in 1,000, or simplified they would be 1 in 2. That is to say, you will have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing.
Fly
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All I know is that I bought a few tickets, and if I don't get that receiver I am going to be PISSED THAT YOU GUYS DIDN'T BETTER EXPLAIN THE PROBABILITY OF ME WINNING
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All I know is that I bought a few tickets, and if I don't get that receiver I am going to be PISSED THAT YOU GUYS DIDN'T BETTER EXPLAIN THE PROBABILITY OF ME WINNING
Well, crap.
:)
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All I know is that I bought a few tickets, and if I don't get that receiver I am going to be PISSED THAT YOU GUYS DIDN'T BETTER EXPLAIN THE PROBABILITY OF ME WINNING
This guy. He gets it. :)
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This guy. He gets it. :)
Hey, GI Joe always told me that KNOWING IS HALF THE BATTLE!
Knowing is half the Battle (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pele5vptVgc#)
Schoolhouse Rock said that KNOWLEDGE WAS POWER!
Bob Dorough and Friends- SchoolHouse Rock (original theme) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVKN_hwf890#)
Fine, be that way. :-[
;D
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Just a bit of clarity.
From here: http://www.problemgambling.ca/en/resourcesforprofessionals/pages/probabilityoddsandrandomchance.aspx (http://www.problemgambling.ca/en/resourcesforprofessionals/pages/probabilityoddsandrandomchance.aspx)
Probability: A Definition
Probability is the likelihood or chance that something will happen. Probability is an estimate of the relative average frequency with which an event occurs in repeated independent trials. The relative frequency is always between 0% (the event never occurs) and 100% (the event always occurs). Probability gives us a tool to predict how often an event will occur, but does not allow us to predict when exactly an event will occur. Probability can also be used to determine the conditions for obtaining certain results or the long-term financial prospects of a particular game; it may also help determine if a particular game is worth playing. It is often expressed as odds, a fraction or a decimal fraction (also known as a proportion). Probability and odds are slightly different ways of describing a player’s chances of winning a bet.
Probability
Probability is an estimate of the chance of winning divided by the total number of chances available. Probability is an ordinary fraction (e.g., 1/4) that can also be expressed as a percentage (e.g., 25%) or as a proportion between 0 and 1 (e.g., p = 0.25). If there are four tickets in a draw and a player owns one of them, his or her probability of winning is 1 in 4 or 1/4 or 25% or p = 0.25.
Odds
Odds are ratios of a player’s chances of losing to his or her chances of winning, or the average frequency of a loss to the average frequency of a win. If a player owns 1 of 4 tickets, his/her probability is 1 in 4 but his/her odds are 3 to 1. That means that there are 3 chances of losing and only 1 chance of winning. To convert odds to probability, take the player’s chance of winning, use it as the numerator and divide by the total number of chances, both winning and losing. For example, if the odds are 4 to 1, the probability equals 1 / (1 + 4) = 1/5 or 20%. Odds of 1 to 1 (50%) are called “evens,” and a payout of 1 to 1 is called “even money.” Epidemiologists use odds ratios to describe the risk for contracting a disease (e.g., a particular group of people might be 2.5 times more likely to have cancer than the rest of the population).
In gambling, “odds” rarely mean the actual chance of a win. Most of the time, when the word “odds” is used, it refers to a subjective estimate of the odds rather than a precise mathematical computation. Furthermore, the odds posted by a racetrack or bookie will not be the “true odds,” but the payout odds. The true odds are the actual chances of winning, whereas the payout odds are the ratio of payout for each unit bet. A favourite horse might be quoted at odds of 2 to 1, which mathematically would represent a probability of 33.3%, but in this case the actual meaning is that the track estimates that it will pay $2 profit for every $1 bet. A long shot (a horse with a low probability of winning) might be quoted at 18 to 1 (a mathematical probability of 5.3%), but these odds do not reflect the probability that the horse will win, they mean only that the payout for a win will be $18 profit for every $1 bet. When a punter says “those are good odds,” he or she is essentially saying that the payout odds compensate for the true odds against a horse winning. The true odds of a horse are actually unknown, but most often the true odds against a horse winning are longer (a lower chance of a win) than the payout odds (e.g., payout odds = 3 to 1; true odds = 5 to 1). The posted odds of a horse actually overestimate the horse’s chance of winning to ensure that the punter is underpaid for a win.
Equally Likely Outcomes
Central to probability is the idea of equally likely outcomes (Stewart, 1989). Each side of a die or coin is equally likely to come up. Probability, however, does not always seem to be about events that are equally likely. For example, the bar symbol on a slot machine might have a probability of 25%, while a double diamond might have a probability of 2%. This does not actually contradict the idea of equally likely outcomes. Instead, think of the 25% as 25 chances and the 2% as two chances, for a total of 27 chances out of 100. Each of those 27 chances is equally likely. As another example, in rolling two dice there are 36 possible outcomes: (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1) . . . (6, 6); and each of these combinations is equally likely to happen. A player rolling 2 dice, however, is most likely to get a total of 7 because there are six ways to make a 7 from the two dice: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2) and (6, 1). A player is least likely to get a total of either 2 or 12 because there is only one way to make a 2 (1, 1) and one way to make a 12 (6, 6).
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(Shakes Head)
(Walks away Humbling to self ......and I thought my kids were bad!) :o
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Oh and I picked myself up a few tickets via the website! Wish me luck!
I have 5 out of 1000 tickets now! Or half a percent chance to win, or a 1 in 200 shot at it.
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From all I've read, I'm pretty sure I have it correct. I bought 5 tickets out of 1000, so 1000 / 5 = 200, meaning I have a 200% chance of winning. Sorry to everyone else.
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When should I expect the raffle tickets in the mail? I ordered the first day but havent received anything yet.
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Hmmm... If I had bought all 1000 tickets for $5,000, I'd have about as much in it as some people are asking for stripped lowers on Armslist. :)
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When should I expect the raffle tickets in the mail? I ordered the first day but havent received anything yet.
Yeah, I haven't gotten mine either. I'm sure the volunteers are just a little behind/busy. They'll show up before the drawing, I'm sure.
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DanW talked about this at the show. There was a small hiccup in getting the tickets out. Rest assured, it has been addressed and you will be receiving your stubs prior to the drawing.
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When should I expect the raffle tickets in the mail? I ordered the first day but havent received anything yet.
I imagine we will have to present a little dissertation on statistics and probability before we are eligible to receive our numbers :)
Actually, I found that discussion kind of interesting. Not going to jump into the middle of it, though.....
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I imagine we will have to present a little dissertation on statistics and probability before we are eligible to receive our numbers :)
Actually, I found that discussion kind of interesting. Not going to jump into the middle of it, though.....
The facts are in jthhapkido's post(s) if you want the real math, but all you REALLY need to know is that you (and by "you" I mean ALL of you) are going to lose and I am going to win. ;D
Fly
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I was just wondering if the ticket kink had been worked out. I still haven’t received my stubs.
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I haven't received mine either, but I am confident that the guys running the show have it figured out!
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I have the ticket stubs filled out for all online sales. I have not gotten emails sent back out to everyone to let them know what ticket number was sold to them. We realized after the initial announcement that we cannot mail raffle tickets through USPS, so it was decided to use email to provide that information back to the customer. Sorry for the delays in getting that information out.
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Thanks for the update.
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I have the ticket stubs filled out for all online sales. I have not gotten emails sent back out to everyone to let them know what ticket number was sold to them. We realized after the initial announcement that we cannot mail raffle tickets through USPS, so it was decided to use email to provide that information back to the customer. Sorry for the delays in getting that information out.
If you need any help with setting up an email batch, let me know. You can send out the same letter to multiple people (and obviously changing the names and ticket numbers) with relative ease. Just takes a small table and a bit of time.
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I'm in. I'll be happy to know that there is one more brain-eating-zombie stopper in the hands of a responsible law abiding Patriot. And I won't be offended at all if that happens to be me. :laugh:
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WHO WON!!?!?!?!
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The lucky winner is Ryan Reeves ticket #0160 (no address on the ticket but has a 402 area code phone number) Congratulations Ryan
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Congrats Ryan!
Ryan is from Omaha. I believe I sold him that ticket too!