NFOA MEMBERS FORUM
General Categories => Laws and Legislation => Topic started by: DanClrk51 on October 10, 2014, 08:50:40 AM
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We may have some really good chances of getting a better legislature for 2015 than for the last two years. Here's why:
As you all know Republicans are as a general rule gun friendly and Democrats are not. I think we can gain up to 6 senate seats for the Nebraska Unicameral this election. Of these 6, two are certain to flip from Democrat to Republican, another is quite likely to flip, and the other three present good opportunities.
Also most of the Republican held seats seem to all be safe seats. There is only one seat that we are in danger of losing and that is in District 3 where there is a special election for Senator Scott Price's seat and it is currently held by Sen. Tommy Garrett who was appointed by Gov Dave Heinemann to fill the spot after Price resigned. Garrett is running against Carol Blood who has name recognition in this district which covers a good part of the city of Bellevue where she held a city council seat.
Here's a look at the seats up for grabs:
District 8: Democrat Senator Burke Harr (also on the judiciary committee) is running for re-election. His showing in the primary was weak against the only candidate, Republican Gwenn Aspen who he will face again in the General Election. Aspen had 2,183 votes and Harr had 2,076 votes.
District 12: Democrat Senator Steve Lathrop (judiciary committee) is retiring due to term limits. This is an open seat and 3 candidates were on the primary ballot Republican Merv Riepe received 2,468 votes and Republican Joseph Hering received 428 votes while Democrat Greg Hosch only received 1,298 votes. If those dynamics don't change much in the general we should be able to pick this one off.
District 20: Democrat Senator Brad Ashford (judiciary committee) is retiring due to term limits. He's also running for Congress against Lee Terry. So this is an open seat. The primary had 2 Republicans and one Democrat. Republican John S. McCollister received 3,389 votes and Republican Laura Baumgartner received 1,232 votes, Democrat Matt Lathrop, who I believe is Steve Lathrop's son received 2,227 votes. McCollister faces Lathrop in the General election. If those dynamics don't change that much McCollister should be able to snag this one for us.
District 30: Democrat Sen. Norm Wallman is retiring due to term limits. This seat is guaranteed to flip as there are two Republicans in the general election and no Democrat on the ballot. Republicans Roy Baker and Bob Tiemann will vie for this seat on Nov. 4th.
District 32: Democrat Sen. Russ Karpisek is retiring due to term limits. This seat was formerly held by Sen. Jeanne Combs who gave us the Concealed Handgun Permit Act. The primary had only two candidates: Republican Laura Ebke received 4,401 votes and Democrat Phil Hardenburger received 3,576 votes. Both face each other again in the general election. I would say this seat is likely to flip but nothing is set in stone.
District 34: Democrat Sen. Annette Dubas is not seeking re-election due to term limits. This seat is the other seat that is guaranteed to flip as there was only one candidate on the ballot in the primary and there will be only one in the general. That candidate is Republican Curt Friesen.
These assessments are of course based on my opinion and I do realize that the General Election brings lots more voters than the primary so its definitely possible we don't get to pick off some of these seats but I remain hopeful. Thanks for reading!
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Sadly we'll be losing good incumbents like Sen. Mark Christensen, Sen. Scott Lautenbaugh and Sen. Pete Pirsch. Hat's off to them for their commitment to the 2nd Amendment.
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One big key is voter turnout. I heard yesterday that the number of democrats that have voted early is much higher than republicans and independents. I'm not sure what to make of that information. Perhaps democrats are less likely to show up the day of and like to vote early, where everyone else likes to vote on the day of???? Not sure. Doesn't seem that likely, but who knows. Ultimately, everyone of us needs to pay attention and go vote! Don't like your choices for some of the bigger races? Go vote for the races that fill the seats in the legislature and other local seats.
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First I will give you the Link to the NFOA-PAF endorsements and candidate survey's: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-ewjYfUktyHaV82UjRSYllpMzg/edit?usp=sharing
Now a little about some of the races:
Races to be concerned with
District 2: Ron Nolte who received an F from the NRA in the primary is putting up a good fight to unseat Bill Kintner, personally I think Bill should win but my inside sources say this is a much closer race than most would think. It is an R vs. R race but the Dems have been backing Nolte and the Reps have not gotten strong behind their incumbent, Nolte has lots of business connections in the District and has been using them to put pressure on Bill. This is a seat we need to defend.
District 3: Tommy is doing a good job of knocking on doors and getting out there, but like you said Carol Blood is a known name and has some very progressive ties. This is another close race and Tommy Garrett could use some support if you have a little time and can help walk a neighborhood it would be greatly appreciated.
District 4: I don't think either candidate will hurt us and neither is a strong supporter, Bob Hilkemann, is running the stronger campaign but this could go either way.
District 6: Based off the primary results Joni Craighead, who would be a great addition and do an admirable job in replacing Pete Pirsch, is the front runner. But we need to be watching for upsets and her campaign team is running like she is 3 points down.
District 8: I will come back to this one.
District 12: 8 years ago everyone thought that Jean Stothert had this one in the bag, she lost by 14 votes to Steve Lathrop. This is an important race because of its position in forming Legislative Leadership (Executive Committee and Committee on Committees), Riepe (R) would support the leadership we need, while Hosch (D) most likely would not.
District 16: Scott Japp is not really putting up a fight here and Senator Lydia Brasch should win handily, but she needs to keep working and I know we have a couple members helping her out and supporting her.
District 18: Brent Lindstrom is not Scott Laughtenbaugh, who even though guns were not his thing when he got elected became a strong supporter, but he is not anything like J. Michael Tesar. This is a tough race because Tesar has been recruited by the Teachers union and has been getting their financial support, between direct funds donated and those they have encouraged to be donated to him he has received over $50,000 for this race. Based upon primary results Brent should win but little things can flip a race.
District 20: As you said McCollister has the primary lead, but turn out and little things can easily swing races. This is one to watch closely and if you are in that district make certain you vote.
District 22: I don't see much of a chance to unseat the incumbent here.
District 24: This was Speaker Adam's seat, this is a chance for a pick up in the overall body, I don't have a lot of detail in this race but have heard that it leans to Kolterman who has the NRA endorsement, his opponent Kirk Tesar received an F from the NRA.
District 26: Another tight race that I have heard leans slightly to Brent Smoyer, Brent was a legislative aide for Senator Laughtenbaugh and would be a strong supporter, this is the seat previously held by Amanda McGill so it could be a big pick up but with the politics in Lincoln I am not certain it will be. If you are in Lincoln Brent could use your boots on the ground assistance.
District 28: Dallas Jones is running a hard race but Patty Pansing Brooks is well known in the area because of her civil involvement, Though I would like to think we get this seat flipped I think it is an uphill battle. Again another seat in Lincoln where boots on the ground would be appreciated.
District 30: Truthfully I don't know much about either of these candidates, the PAF's endorsement is completely based upon one returning a questionnaire that was not bad and the other candidate (who has the NRA endorsement) who did not. Either candidate should be a pick up for us, not saying Senator Wallman was bad but he was not really in our corner.
District 32: Laura Ebke who won the primary should take this seat, but her opponent who will not support us is going negative and we all know that can and does sway votes. Laura is running a straight up race and keeping to her message, if you have some time to lend a hand this is a seat we should pick up but a little assistance for the candidate goes a long way to ensuring that.
District 34: though it is uncontested I will note that I have heard good things about Curt Friesen and with him replacing Senator Dubas could be a pick up in the overall makeup of the Legislature.
District 40: Tyson Larson should win this one and he has been good for us.
Beyond this we get to the outstate races that I get little information on, but be watching I may have some coming on LD 48.
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Thanks Andy, those were some very interesting insights. I was surprised by the assessment for Sen. Amanda McGill's seat leaning in Brent Smoyer's direction. That's good news.
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Now back to the LD 8 race. I have previously pointed out the Executive Committee and the Committee on Committees and need to explain those to really let everyone know how important this race is.
Everyone pretty much understands that the Committee on Committees determines who is on what committee, and the importance that has for us; and their recommendation for committee chairs also carries a lot of weight. What most people don't know is how that committee is made. Each of Nebraska's Congressional Districts will caucus at the beginning of the session and assign 4 members of it's caucus to this committee. Congressional District 3 assigns it's 4 members to make certain that the committees that deal with Ag etc. that are their primary area's of focus get the representation they need to get bills passed, these members a generally on the conservative side and party or other things don't really sway them they look for who they think will be good fair representatives. Congressional District 1 gets kind of split, because it is made up of liberal Lincoln as well as conservative rural Nebraska it's seats usually get divided between the issues.
That leaves Congressional District 2, primarily Omaha, who tends to send a very Liberal group of Senators to Lincoln, so its representation on the Committee on Committees sits in that corner. They don't try to get all the committees their way, but go after specific committees that they have targeted to control (such as the Judiciary Committee). Because they allow District 3 to get pretty much what it wants on the Ag committees it is able to pull that off, they can usually sway a middle of the ground committee member or two to vote their way on most of the assignments.
The Executive Committee which gets maid the same way has amongst its duties to assign bills to committees, which is why bills that have the word gun in them go to the liberal Judiciary Committee even if the issue would be better served in the Military and Governmental Affairs Committee that tends to lean more conservative (see LB857).
Now the true core of conservative Senators in the Legislature is in the vicinity of 17 members, these are Senator that can be trusted to vote as we would want on our bills, the number of true liberal Senators is about 14-16, leaving the rest open to going either direction (thought they lean conservative on our issue). So you can see how the make up of the second Congressional District delegation has so much sway on what we try to accomplish. Based upon the numbers and what is expected to happen we are within one or two seats of changing the way these important committees are made up.
Now the race for LD8; in the Primary Gwenn Aspen beat Burke Harr by just over 100 votes, and everyone thinks this race is within 100 votes yet today either way. Senator Harr has not been the worlds worst for us in his votes on the floor of the Legislature, or in his time on the Judiciary Committee. But because of his party support and his position on other issues he would oppose getting the leadership committees built the way we need them, and remember we are only one or two seats away from getting control of those committees. Senator Harr is not a great campaigner, in fact the Democratic Party has taken over his campaign and is dictating what he does and is raising his funds, this is simply because he does what they tell him in the Legislature. This race will be influenced by lots of outside factors, there has already been some negative campaigning in support of Burke Harr and that will increase. As Rod has pointed out there has been a large disparity in early voting with the Dems having made up their minds and voting early in larger than normal numbers, the Republicans are being slow to vote this year and there are people concerned that there will be too many that sit this one out.
What are some of the outside influences on this election that can sway several of these seats not just this one that is so close. The Congressional race between Brad Ashford and Lee Terry. Brad's attacks have hurt Lee, not in getting a huge new number of voters over to him but by encouraging people who normally would have been going out to vote for Lee to not turn out because they are frustrated with how things are going. This race is within 1/2 a point either direction and is having a major impact on the down ballot races.
Another thing pushing a stronger than normal Democrat turn out is the minimum wage initiative, there are a lot of people in Congressional District two that are thinking they need this and are getting out to vote because of it. The Democratic Candidates are tying themselves to this measure hoping to get these votes as well.
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Thanks Andy, those were some very interesting insights. I was surprised by the assessment for Sen. Amanda McGill's seat leaning in Brent Smoyer's direction. That's good news.
I have heard Brent is working hard and doing the things needed to get elected, but like you I am a bit surprised of where people think things are and what the odds are.
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Now a follow up, what does all the long posts mean. We are in a position to make a major change in the Legislature this year. One that will give us at least 2 years to get some thing accomplished. But there are a couple major hurdles to clear and the only way to do that is for everyone here to not only get out and vote but get out and support those candidates that will be supporting us.
The PAF is going to be doing something we have never done before because of the financial support you have given, and we need that to continue, but we need everyone that can to find a way to help out our candidates. They are all sending chasers, cards or letters to early voters trying to get their vote at the last minute, that takes time addressing and getting them out. The last 10 days or so they will be doing hard pushes to get the vote out, contacting voters they would expect to support them to get them to the polls, most of this is phone calls and I will be sharing some info on how you can help with some of those efforts soon.
But in the mean time contact campaigns that are close to you and see what you can do to help. It's not about raising money for the campaigns now (though there is still some of that going on) but about manpower and getting the message out, something each of us can do.
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A good article on a couple of the key races and where the money comes from: http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/ (http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/)
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A good article on a couple of the key races and where the money comes from: http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/ (http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/)
The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. :(
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The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. :(
Not only are their pockets deep but they turn their members out to help candidates and have close ties to financially secure members of the Democratic Party and can induce them to give large amounts of cash to people the Union supports.
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I just spoke with Roy Baker on the phone and asked why he hadn't filled out the NFOA questionnaire. He wasn't aware of the impact of the NFOA and I explained my views of the organization, he was out of state and said he would look at our questionnaire when he gets home... I also told him he it could possibly define him against his opponent...
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The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. :(
I was a member of the Clarks Education Association, a chapter of the NEA, for 10 years. I was elected during the last nine of those years to represent the teachers in the negotiations with the board for raises, supplies, etc., and to stand with teachers whom the board had issues with. I haven't been a member of the NEA since 1980, when I left teaching to start my consulting business. However, back then the teacher elected to be the NEA president wasn't really in charge of anything important. The office was titular. The holder was trotted out at dog&pony shows to present the illusion that the teachers controlled the NEA. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The political agenda and the driving force were the full time STAFF members and the board. The Clarks Ed Assc at the time I was a member was split like the country was, and is today, about half were liberal and the other half conservative. However, the Nebraska Education Association, like the National Education Association, never supported conservative political candidates or issues. Conservatives share of the dues money was spent supporting political positions they opposed. It's the same with with labor unions.
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Thanks for all the information everyone. A real eye opener.
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GreyGeek brings up a very important point, the NEA and in some cases the local union is separate from the teachers, the Union often does things entirely different that what the individuals, even the majority of individuals, want. This goes for many other trade and other unions as well, the STAFF has a position and uses the money of the union members as they feel is correct then tell the union member what they should think and how they should vote. Unfortunately too many fall into the low information voter pool, not because they cant understand the issues, because they only listen to what those they pay to research these things for them say.
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Spent lots of time going over races this afternoon with some of my contacts getting facts so I can make final determinations what and how the NFOA-PAF should be involved. Lots of bad news based upon what is being seen from early voting info, especially in Congressional District 2. If there is a candidate or candidates there that you support they need your assistance now more than ever. Some of the races that people thought our guy would win handily are looking like they could go the other way, lots of little details coming and everything is liquid but its not looking the same today as it was just a couple days ago.
Money is not what most of the candidates need right now they need assistance, boots on the ground, to try to turn things around. They need to get their voters to vote and help shopping for any loose votes they can find.
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I have not seen Lee's camp this nervous before. I spoke with one person who is worried the "good time" ads being run against Ashford will backfire as more of the problems in the department are being uncovered and reported.
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I am still hopeful that the Republicans will show up in force on election day....I just read this article detailing how the Democrats outnumber republicans 3-1 in early voting....apparently every registered Democrat got a mailer from their party with a form to apply to vote early....wait to drop the ball Nebraska Rebublican Party!
Here is a scary thought....how many years until Nebraska is a solid purple state? Factor in the # of youth leaning left, the influx of illeagal aliens, & the ever growing welfare system! Blah
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The Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, D-Steve Lathrop, is trying to use his position to harass the Gov and AG.
http://watchdog.org/176775/nebraska-governor/?roi=echo3-22815265799-22922459-a68da58c5912183f982f31b9da5f6227 (http://watchdog.org/176775/nebraska-governor/?roi=echo3-22815265799-22922459-a68da58c5912183f982f31b9da5f6227)
The chairman of a legislative committee investigating prison scandals said Friday it’s possible Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman, Attorney General Jon Bruning and other top Heineman officials could be subpoenaed to testify before the committee about how the state responded to miscalculated prison sentences.
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“That will be up to the committee but I think that’s something we’ll talk about,” Lathrop said.
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Kenney testified Friday that despite being told by his chief legal counsel, George Green, he had no legal basis for allowing those inmates to return home, he forged ahead. Green later retired rather than face termination proceedings for his involvement in the sentence miscalculations.
Green outlined his concerns in a memo to deputy corrections director Larry Wayne on July 31, and gave a copy to Kenney.
Green’s notes, which were turned over to the prisons committee, indicated the governor, attorney general and other high-placed people in Heineman’s administration were at a meeting where Kenney’s placement program was discussed.
Politics is a blood sport.
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I am still hopeful that the Republicans will show up in force on election day....I just read this article detailing how the Democrats outnumber republicans 3-1 in early voting....apparently every registered Democrat got a mailer from their party with a form to apply to vote early....wait to drop the ball Nebraska Rebublican Party!
Here is a scary thought....how many years until Nebraska is a solid purple state? Factor in the # of youth leaning left, the influx of illeagal aliens, & the ever growing welfare system! Blah
Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the Republican Party in Nebraska has taken it for granted for too long that this is a red state, and they just don't try very hard. Meanwhile, the D's are out hustling and outspending them on a heck of a lot of local races. And local races are what really matter, even if they're not as sexy. It'll really suck if the Legislature is controlled by Democrats the next time districts are redrawn.
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Yes at least In Douglas County all the Dem households got early voting cards from the party, and they tend to throw lots of money around but look at how much they get from their big donors. Unfortunatly the local Republican Party looks for 10s and 20s from us blue collar folks and just does not have that level of cash, that's why the big campaigns get depended upon to do those things.
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Yes at least In Douglas County all the Dem households got early voting cards from the party, and they tend to throw lots of money around but look at how much they get from their big donors. Unfortunatly the local Republican Party looks for 10s and 20s from us blue collar folks and just does not have that level of cash, that's why the big campaigns get depended upon to do those things.
That's what just blows my mind. How expensive could it really be, in the grand scheme of things, to send out early voter cards to every (R) voter? If the Democrats can afford it I'm sure the Republicans can too, even if there are more (R) voters. It's like they're not even trying. Even if they randomly chose half of the registered (R) voters it would be a huge improvement.
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That's what just blows my mind. How expensive could it really be, in the grand scheme of things, to send out early voter cards to every (R) voter? If the Democrats can afford it I'm sure the Republicans can too, even if there are more (R) voters. It's like they're not even trying. Even if they randomly chose half of the registered (R) voters it would be a huge improvement.
Well as a County Party Central Committee member I can tell you straight up they don't have the funds, they try to raise money but the state party gets the big donors and they spend it on the statewide candidates and hope that there is a trickle down to the local. The Dems don't get large amounts (at least comparably) given to the state party, it goes to the local county or directly to candidates. Also the Unions do a lot to help the Dem candidates in Omaha and Lincoln, they print the pieces with the early voter stuff for some of them, for some they get large groups of people to walk neighborhoods and deliver them to every door (a 4x6 postcard costs in the vicinity of .12 to print, and .23 to bulk mail).
The Douglas County Republican Party has raised enough money to get a candidate slate printed (a list of all the republican candidates running in the county) but is having trouble getting volunteers to help deliver them to people, so they end up needing to spend on postage and that breaks the bank because of the size of the piece (it is larger than a standard postcard).
Since the Dems can't find candidates for all the races they can fit them all on a postcard and with the low price send multiple, one to each Dem household before the election, your an early voter you get one the same day your ballot arrives, maybe another one before the election with the early voter request card attached. They seem to get more money and more volunteer help, that's why they keep winning in the cities.
And how expensive, well there are around 124,000 registered Republicans in Douglas County, so that's around 80,000 households so a simple postcard to each would cost $28,000 plus design cost, setting up the mailing for proper addressing etc. for bulk mail. A bigger piece like what the DCRP has for a candidate slate would cost around .50 each so around $40,000 plus the extra's. They usually also reach out to the Libertarians and undecided so that's another 77,000 voters and around another 50,000 households, I think you can see where this can become quite expensive.
For info there are about 122,000 registered Democrats in Douglas County based upon numbers I saw beginning of the month.
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District 2: Ron Nolte who received an F from the NRA in the primary is putting up a good fight to unseat Bill Kintner, personally I think Bill should win but my inside sources say this is a much closer race than most would think. It is an R vs. R race but the Dems have been backing Nolte and the Reps have not gotten strong behind their incumbent, Nolte has lots of business connections in the District and has been using them to put pressure on Bill. This is a seat we need to defend.
This interests me. Do we know why Nolte got an F from the NRA? I know Ron a little, and every discussion we've had about guns (hmm---literally every discussion we've had has been about guns) has been positive.
Matter of fact, he lets me use some of his land as a shooting range sometimes.
He even has people come out periodically shooting various levels of NFA items, including full-auto.
It is also interesting to see that the Dems have been backing him. I would have pegged him as a die-hard R.
I'm not arguing against anything Allen has said, above---if he is saying it, I know he can back it up. It just surprises me a lot. (And I've met Kintner, and I know he abstained from at least one vote last year in which he knew what he should have voted, but he didn't want to make a doctor friend of his angry so he abstained. This isn't supposition, this is actually what he SAID. Don't like him much.)
Do we know why Nolte got an F?
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From here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Real-Ron-Nolte/332587186911427 (https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Real-Ron-Nolte/332587186911427)
Liberal Dick Holland, Liberal Frederick Simon, the extremely Liberal Nebraska Teachers Union, State AFL-CIO Unions, Firefighters Union, Liberal Union NAPE/AFSCME...pretty good group of supporters for a Liberal Democrat...and they all support Ron Nolte.
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From here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Real-Ron-Nolte/332587186911427 (https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Real-Ron-Nolte/332587186911427)
I'm thinking that I'd prefer to use a reference that wasn't obviously created to cause problems for Nolte. Not saying it is wrong, just that it obviously has a bias, and thus, is not necessarily reliable.
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I'm thinking that I'd prefer to use a reference that wasn't obviously created to cause problems for Nolte. Not saying it is wrong, just that it obviously has a bias, and thus, is not necessarily reliable.
Agreed, just putting it out there.
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Do we know why Nolte got an F?
I wish I could say with any authority as to why he received an F, or for that matter why they upgraded to a D in the General Election. The NRA does not give any reasons as to why they give the grades and they do not share any information from their surveys. The only thing I can say is that if they gave a grade he had to do a survey, also from experience I know some candidates have been able to have conversations with the NRA after getting a low grade and get that grade raised. Can't say that happened here because the NRA does not share information.
I have had three interaction with Ron Nolte one electronic where the information shared could have been from anyone (not our survey, he did not respond), it was polite and business like but offered no information about who Ron is. One on the telephone which again was polite but very lacking in substance, and I approached him and some supporters in person at an event where I was met less than friendly. I know a lot of people especially in the Cass County area have had dealings with him for a long time and consider him to be a friend, after the interactions I have had I could not say the same.
Yes, Ron's primary support, and he has received lots of it, has been from the Dems with Dick Holland (no friend of gun owners) and Frederick Simon (Simon Properties) giving large amounts of finances. Edit to add because seen other conversation while I was typing, I base my position here from info w/ accountability and disclosure. Personally this has very little to do with my position on a candidate because all these people that give do so because they feel candidate A is more likely to agree with them than Candidate B, but if he is more likely to agree with the NEA (not saying that is always bad) than me will he side with them on gun issues where they oppose what we try to do?
Something that for me has been a major consideration in who to endorse/support this year has been who (by ideological position not name) they would support to the Committee on Committee's and the Executive Committee. These two committees control the odds of our bills seeing the floor. It would be nice to have a Judiciary Committee that agreed with us more than not, but at least a fair hearing where we didn't know before the hearing started the majority would be against us would be nice. The Executive Committee is who assigns bills to committee's, bills like LB857 should have gone to the Government and Military affairs committee where it would have made it to the floor for debate rather than Ashford not bringing the bill up for a vote in Executive Committee until the session was over. For several years we have been learning how these things happen and work in the legislature, now we have a strong enough handle on it that we are working to have a positive effect.
Bill is not perfect on that we would agree, but there is not a stronger supporter of our Second Amendment rights in the Legislature than he is. He has made himself to be a lightning rod for criticism, that is part of the strategy he is using much like Ernie Chambers does. Will he be able to be effective doing it, to some degree that is yet to be seen there has been some successes as well as some failures.
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Oh one other item I did not address, Ron is a Republican and it has been a hot issue amongst the County Republican parties on supporting one candidate (Bill or Ron) over the other. In the mean time the County Democrat parties have decided to back/endorse Ron. To my knowledge neither candidate has asked the State Party to endorse them and I have not seen any endorsement there for either.
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Thanks for the additional info, AA. I do appreciate you taking the time to write all that!
Yeah, it is a bad sign if Dems (as a group) all throw support behind a Republican---because it means they dislike the other guy more, and that's normally a GOOD sign (at least in much of this state) especially on rights issues.
And yes indeed, it sure would be nice to have the Judiciary committee actually supporting rights, instead of attempting to limit them.
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Something that for me has been a major consideration in who to endorse/support this year has been who (by ideological position not name) they would support to the Committee on Committee's and the Executive Committee. These two committees control the odds of our bills seeing the floor. It would be nice to have a Judiciary Committee that agreed with us more than not, but at least a fair hearing where we didn't know before the hearing started the majority would be against us would be nice. The Executive Committee is who assigns bills to committee's, bills like LB857 should have gone to the Government and Military affairs committee where it would have made it to the floor for debate rather than Ashford not bringing the bill up for a vote in Executive Committee until the session was over.
For the sake of clarity, it should be noted that the Executive Committee references the bills, but generally speaking it does not vote on their substance (there are some exceptions). In this case, the issue is not that the Exec Comm didn't do their job, but that Ashford didn't bring the bill up for a vote in a Judiciary Committee _executive session_ until it was too late in the legislative session to make the agenda.
I didn't want anyone to be confused by the typo above.
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Thanks for the clarification there CitizenClark they reference the bills to the Committees and in the example it was the Judiciary Committee that failed to have a timely vote. The issue with the make up of the Executive Committee is where they place bills, bills that the Liberal Minority of the Legislature have issues with go to committees that have a tendency to sit on the bills and not send them to the full Legislature for debate.
jthhapkido, thanks for your comments. I try very hard to put away any personal biases and do the best possible research and balancing of the issues I can in making the endorsements for the PAF. Sometimes those decisions are difficult because having spent time working with and talking to some of the Senators and Candidates there are personal relationships and friendships that get built, setting those aside and being an unbiased representative for all the NFOA's members is the goal.
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We should all do what we can to get those inclined toward patriotism out to vote. It's like a column of British regulars are marching through our area and we need to go rally the militia to fight them. Numbers are what count. Many loyal Americans have become demoralized and would rather sit home. The last time they did that Obama got elected to a second term, so I like to ask them how their protest by not voting is working out for them.
If I remember right G&A magazine made a list of how gun friendly each state government is, based on each state's laws, and Nebraska was in the bottom half. This sad situation could be improved by getting a greater number of loyal Americans into the legislature. This is the message we need to get out to patriots. If they need to be called and reminded or given a ride or whatever we should do it. You can be sure the enemy will. Also, remind patriots that once you get on the absentee ballot list they will send you one each time and you do it all from home. Very easy, and no excuse not to. We do not need to concede control of our state to the enemy of freedom.
Veto Oligarchy and Treason to the End (VOTE)!
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well its looking like Lee Terry is out. You can probably chalk that up to the 5% of the vote that Steve Laird got.
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well its looking like Lee Terry is out. You can probably chalk that up to the 5% of the vote that Steve Laird got.
Or, alternatively, you could consider that candidates ought to work to earn the votes they get. If Lee Terry had been more of a friend to liberty, he might have gotten those votes. Instead they went to a protest candidate. That is what happens when a mediocre candidate runs in a close contest.
But FWIW, there is no persuasive evidence that Libertarian Party candidates pull more from the right than the left. Libertarianism contains something to offend everyone (who isn't a libertarian, that is): anti-prohibitionism and social liberty to anger the Right, and free markets and personal responsibility to drive the Left up the wall.
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^^^^ What Clark said .....
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^^^^ What Clark said .....
Correct and from what I hear there was a lot of protest votes that went to Ashford as well. His history of having been a Republican and talking conservative on some tax issues has helped him pick up some of the centrist protest votes while the more constitutional conservative protest vote went Libertarian. Lots to learn from this race for those that do that stuff.
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Or, alternatively, you could consider that candidates ought to work to earn the votes they get. If Lee Terry had been more of a friend to liberty, he might have gotten those votes. Instead they went to a protest candidate. That is what happens when a mediocre candidate runs in a close contest.
But FWIW, there is no persuasive evidence that Libertarian Party candidates pull more from the right than the left. Libertarianism contains something to offend everyone (who isn't a libertarian, that is): anti-prohibitionism and social liberty to anger the Right, and free markets and personal responsibility to drive the Left up the wall.
Oh I agree. I'm one of the ones who voted for Laird. I grew up as a republican but over the years my politics have evolved into "live your life any way you see fit, just don't force me to pay for it". For me, Terry's stance on SOPA turned me sour. And I'll admit his "Dang Straight" comments didn't help.
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Basically don't make it hard for yourself by saying "Dang straight, I got a nice house and a kid in college!" during a government shutdown... i also feel like he should've showed the government shutdown time line showcasing Obama’s DOD not following the law that was passed to pay the troops and link that to Ashford/Pelosi.
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So how did the NFOA-PAF endorsed candidates do?
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So how did the NFOA-PAF endorsed candidates do?
Working on a post, but quickly we did well better than expected and even better than I thought we would about 10:30 last night. I went through a period of the sky falling and needed friends to cheer me up.
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I look forward to hearing about your thoughts on how it turned out from a local percpective and if you think any pro 2nd amendment issues will be addressed with this body in the nebraska legislature.
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Or, alternatively, you could consider that candidates ought to work to earn the votes they get. If Lee Terry had been more of a friend to liberty, he might have gotten those votes. Instead they went to a protest candidate. That is what happens when a mediocre candidate runs in a close contest.
But FWIW, there is no persuasive evidence that Libertarian Party candidates pull more from the right than the left. Libertarianism contains something to offend everyone (who isn't a libertarian, that is): anti-prohibitionism and social liberty to anger the Right, and free markets and personal responsibility to drive the Left up the wall.
I'll add - the natural conclusion to any vote stealing / siphoning via third party candidates discussion or blame game is to eliminate the third party candidates from the ballots. Seriously, what other eventuality is there ?
It's a discussion that MUST NOT be entertained.
As an aside, everyone at my work voted for Blue Website Guy (TM) (aka Steve Laird). He was the best candidate for the job in our opinion. If he runs next time, one of us will prolly offer to design a site for him heh.
As a really far aside - libertarians really need to learn how to talk to people. "We want to eliminate the Dept of Education!" ZOMG CHILDREN NUUUU!!! No no, show me how the DoE has helped your child. Oh, it hasn't. It doesn't even care about your kid. So why does it exist ? ... Those kinds of things.
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Well I guess my original prediction came pretty close. We got 5 out of the 6 seats that I had called would be good chances for pickups for Republicans :)
Here's an article from the Omaha World Herald counting the tally:
http://www.omaha.com/news/legislature/pete-ricketts-can-expect-a-more-comfortable-shade-of-red/article_d8587d02-41d1-567d-90b1-a086e0e683d6.html (http://www.omaha.com/news/legislature/pete-ricketts-can-expect-a-more-comfortable-shade-of-red/article_d8587d02-41d1-567d-90b1-a086e0e683d6.html)
I believe they are mistaken when they say there is only one Independent though. Ernie Chambers and Al Davis are both independents as far as i know.
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Well I guess my original prediction came pretty close. We got 5 out of the 6 seats that I had called would be good chances for pickups for Republicans :)
Here's an article from the Omaha World Herald counting the tally:
http://www.omaha.com/news/legislature/pete-ricketts-can-expect-a-more-comfortable-shade-of-red/article_d8587d02-41d1-567d-90b1-a086e0e683d6.html (http://www.omaha.com/news/legislature/pete-ricketts-can-expect-a-more-comfortable-shade-of-red/article_d8587d02-41d1-567d-90b1-a086e0e683d6.html)
I believe they are mistaken when they say there is only one Independent though. Ernie Chambers and Al Davis are both independents as far as i know.
Last time I checked, Al Davis was registered as a Republican, though he has criticized the two-party system and the way that partisan primaries are conducted in Nebraska.
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I'm thinking that I'd prefer to use a reference that wasn't obviously created to cause problems for Nolte. Not saying it is wrong, just that it obviously has a bias, and thus, is not necessarily reliable.
Here is one of the campaign filings from Nolte to the Accountability & Disclosure Commission disclosing donors: http://www.nadc.nebraska.gov/ccdb/search.cgi?page=formb1b&IDNO=14CAC01863&OFFREC=10/28/2014&REPORT_ID=25568 (http://www.nadc.nebraska.gov/ccdb/search.cgi?page=formb1b&IDNO=14CAC01863&OFFREC=10/28/2014&REPORT_ID=25568)