Nebraska Legislature Election 2014

[DanClrk51]

We may have some really good chances of getting a better legislature for 2015 than for the last two years. Here's why:

As you all know Republicans are as a general rule gun friendly and Democrats are not. I think we can gain up to 6 senate seats for the Nebraska Unicameral this election. Of these 6, two are certain to flip from Democrat to Republican, another is quite likely to flip, and the other three present good opportunities.

Also most of the Republican held seats seem to all be safe seats. There is only one seat that we are in danger of losing and that is in District 3 where there is a special election for Senator Scott Price's seat and it is currently held by Sen. Tommy Garrett who was appointed by Gov Dave Heinemann to fill the spot after Price resigned. Garrett is running against Carol Blood who has name recognition in this district which covers a good part of the city of Bellevue where she held a city council seat.

Here's a look at the seats up for grabs:

District 8: Democrat Senator Burke Harr (also on the judiciary committee) is running for re-election. His showing in the primary was weak against the only candidate, Republican Gwenn Aspen who he will face again in the General Election. Aspen had 2,183 votes and Harr had 2,076 votes.

District 12: Democrat Senator Steve Lathrop (judiciary committee) is retiring due to term limits. This is an open seat and 3 candidates were on the primary ballot Republican Merv Riepe received 2,468 votes and Republican Joseph Hering received 428 votes while Democrat Greg Hosch only received 1,298 votes. If those dynamics don't change much in the general we should be able to pick this one off.

District 20: Democrat Senator Brad Ashford (judiciary committee) is retiring due to term limits. He's also running for Congress against Lee Terry. So this is an open seat. The primary had 2 Republicans and one Democrat. Republican John S. McCollister received 3,389 votes and Republican Laura Baumgartner received 1,232 votes, Democrat Matt Lathrop, who I believe is Steve Lathrop's son received 2,227 votes. McCollister faces Lathrop in the General election. If those dynamics don't change that much McCollister should be able to snag this one for us.

District 30: Democrat Sen. Norm Wallman is retiring due to term limits. This seat is guaranteed to flip as there are two Republicans in the general election and no Democrat on the ballot. Republicans Roy Baker and Bob Tiemann will vie for this seat on Nov. 4th.

District 32: Democrat Sen. Russ Karpisek is retiring due to term limits. This seat was formerly held by Sen. Jeanne Combs who gave us the Concealed Handgun Permit Act. The primary had only two candidates: Republican Laura Ebke received 4,401 votes and Democrat Phil Hardenburger received 3,576 votes. Both face each other again in the general election. I would say this seat is likely to flip but nothing is set in stone.

District 34: Democrat Sen. Annette Dubas is not seeking re-election due to term limits. This seat is the other seat that is guaranteed to flip as there was only one candidate on the ballot in the primary and there will be only one in the general. That candidate is Republican Curt Friesen.

These assessments are of course based on my opinion and I do realize that the General Election brings lots more voters than the primary so its definitely possible we don't get to pick off some of these seats but I remain hopeful. Thanks for reading!

[DanClrk51]

Sadly we'll be losing good incumbents like Sen. Mark Christensen, Sen. Scott Lautenbaugh and Sen. Pete Pirsch. Hat's off to them for their commitment to the 2nd Amendment.

[RLMoeller]

One big key is voter turnout.   I heard yesterday that the number of democrats that have voted early is much higher than republicans and independents.  I'm not sure what to make of that information.  Perhaps democrats are less likely to show up the day of and like to vote early, where everyone else likes to vote on the day of?  Not sure.  Doesn't seem that  likely, but who knows.    Ultimately, everyone of us needs to pay attention and go vote!   Don't like your choices for some of the bigger races?  Go vote for the races that fill the seats in the legislature and other local seats.

[AAllen]

First I will give you the Link to the NFOA-PAF endorsements and candidate survey's: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-ewjYfUktyHaV82UjRSYllpMzg/edit?usp=sharing

Now a little about some of the races:

Races to be concerned with

District 2:  Ron Nolte who received an F from the NRA in the primary is putting up a good fight to unseat Bill Kintner, personally I think Bill should win but my inside sources say this is a much closer race than most would think.  It is an R vs. R race but the Dems have been backing Nolte and the Reps have not gotten strong behind their incumbent, Nolte has lots of business connections in the District and has been using them to put pressure on Bill.  This is a seat we need to defend.

District 3: Tommy is doing a good job of knocking on doors and getting out there, but like you said Carol Blood is a known name and has some very progressive ties.  This is another close race and Tommy Garrett could use some support if you have a little time and can help walk a neighborhood it would be greatly appreciated.

District 4: I don't think either candidate will hurt us and neither is a strong supporter, Bob Hilkemann, is running the stronger campaign but this could go either way.

District 6: Based off the primary results Joni Craighead, who would be a great addition and do an admirable job in replacing Pete Pirsch, is the front runner.  But we need to be watching for upsets and her campaign team is running like she is 3 points down.

District 8:  I will come back to this one.

District 12: 8 years ago everyone thought that Jean Stothert had this one in the bag, she lost by 14 votes to Steve Lathrop.  This is an important race because of its position in forming Legislative Leadership (Executive Committee and Committee on Committees), Riepe (R) would support the leadership we need, while Hosch (D) most likely would not.

District 16:  Scott Japp is not really putting up a fight here and Senator Lydia Brasch should win handily, but she needs to keep working and I know we have a couple members helping her out and supporting her.

District 18:  Brent Lindstrom is not Scott Laughtenbaugh, who even though guns were not his thing when he got elected became a strong supporter, but he is not anything like J. Michael Tesar.  This is a tough race because Tesar has been recruited by the Teachers union and has been getting their financial support, between direct funds donated and those they have encouraged to be donated to him he has received over $50,000 for this race.  Based upon primary results Brent should win but little things can flip a race.

District 20: As you said McCollister has the primary lead, but turn out and little things can easily swing races.  This is one to watch closely and if you are in that district make certain you vote.

District 22:  I don't see much of a chance to unseat the incumbent here.

District 24: This was Speaker Adam's seat, this is a chance for a pick up in the overall body, I don't have a lot of detail in this race but have heard that it leans to Kolterman who has the NRA endorsement, his opponent Kirk Tesar received an F from the NRA.

District 26: Another tight race that I have heard leans slightly to Brent Smoyer, Brent was a legislative aide for Senator Laughtenbaugh and would be a strong supporter, this is the seat previously held by Amanda McGill so it could be a big pick up but with the politics in Lincoln I am not certain it will be.  If you are in Lincoln Brent could use your boots on the ground assistance.

District 28: Dallas Jones is running a hard race but Patty Pansing Brooks is well known in the area because of her civil involvement, Though I would like to think we get this seat flipped I think it is an uphill battle.  Again another seat in Lincoln where boots on the ground would be appreciated.

District 30:  Truthfully I don't know much about either of these candidates, the PAF's endorsement is completely based upon one returning a questionnaire that was not bad and the other candidate (who has the NRA endorsement) who did not.  Either candidate should be a pick up for us, not saying Senator Wallman was bad but he was not really in our corner.

District 32: Laura Ebke who won the primary should take this seat, but her opponent who will not support us is going negative and we all know that can and does sway votes.  Laura is running a straight up race and keeping to her message, if you have some time to lend a hand this is a seat we should pick up but a little assistance for the candidate goes a long way to ensuring that.

District 34: though it is uncontested I will note that I have heard good things about Curt Friesen and with him replacing Senator Dubas could be a pick up in the overall makeup of the Legislature.

District 40: Tyson Larson should win this one and he has been good for us.

Beyond this we get to the outstate races that I get little information on, but be watching I may have some coming on LD 48.

[DanClrk51]

Thanks Andy, those were some very interesting insights. I was surprised by the assessment for Sen. Amanda McGill's seat leaning in Brent Smoyer's direction. That's good news.

[AAllen]

Now back to the LD 8 race.  I have previously pointed out the Executive Committee and the Committee on Committees and need to explain those to really let everyone know how important this race is.

Everyone pretty much understands that the Committee on Committees determines who is on what committee, and the importance that has for us; and their recommendation for committee chairs also carries a lot of weight.  What most people don't know is how that committee is made.  Each of Nebraska's Congressional Districts will caucus at the beginning of the session and assign 4 members of it's caucus to this committee.  Congressional District 3 assigns it's 4 members to make certain that the committees that deal with Ag etc. that are their primary area's of focus get the representation they need to get bills passed, these members a generally on the conservative side and party or other things don't really sway them they look for who they think will be good fair representatives.  Congressional District 1 gets kind of split, because it is made up of liberal Lincoln as well as conservative rural Nebraska it's seats usually get divided between the issues. 

That leaves Congressional District 2, primarily Omaha, who tends to send a very Liberal group of Senators to Lincoln, so its representation on the Committee on Committees sits in that corner.  They don't try to get all the committees their way, but go after specific committees that they have targeted to control (such as the Judiciary Committee).  Because they allow District 3 to get pretty much what it wants on the Ag committees it is able to pull that off, they can usually sway a middle of the ground committee member or two to vote their way on most of the assignments.

The Executive Committee which gets maid the same way has amongst its duties to assign bills to committees, which is why bills that have the word gun in them go to the liberal Judiciary Committee even if the issue would be better served in the Military and Governmental Affairs Committee that tends to lean more conservative (see LB857).

Now the true core of conservative Senators in the Legislature is in the vicinity of 17 members, these are Senator that can be trusted to vote as we would want on our bills, the number of true liberal Senators is about 14-16, leaving the rest open to going either direction (thought they lean conservative on our issue).  So you can see how the make up of the second Congressional District delegation has so much sway on what we try to accomplish.  Based upon the numbers and what is expected to happen we are within one or two seats of changing the way these important committees are made up.

Now the race for LD8; in the Primary Gwenn Aspen beat Burke Harr by just over 100 votes, and everyone thinks this race is within 100 votes yet today either way.  Senator Harr has not been the worlds worst for us in his votes on the floor of the Legislature, or in his time on the Judiciary Committee.  But because of his party support and his position on other issues he would oppose getting the leadership committees built the way we need them, and remember we are only one or two seats away from getting control of those committees.  Senator Harr is not a great campaigner, in fact the Democratic Party has taken over his campaign and is dictating what he does and is raising his funds, this is simply because he does what they tell him in the Legislature.  This race will be influenced by lots of outside factors, there has already been some negative campaigning in support of Burke Harr and that will increase.  As Rod has pointed out there has been a large disparity in early voting with the Dems having made up their minds and voting early in larger than normal numbers, the Republicans are being slow to vote this year and there are people concerned that there will be too many that sit this one out.

What are some of the outside influences on this election that can sway several of these seats not just this one that is so close.  The Congressional race between Brad Ashford and Lee Terry.  Brad's attacks have hurt Lee, not in getting a huge new number of voters over to him but by encouraging people who normally would have been going out to vote for Lee to not turn out because they are frustrated with how things are going.  This race is within 1/2 a point either direction and is having a major impact on the down ballot races.

Another thing pushing a stronger than normal Democrat turn out is the minimum wage initiative, there are a lot of people in Congressional District two that are thinking they need this and are getting out to vote because of it.  The Democratic Candidates are tying themselves to this measure hoping to get these votes as well.

[AAllen]

Thanks Andy, those were some very interesting insights. I was surprised by the assessment for Sen. Amanda McGill's seat leaning in Brent Smoyer's direction. That's good news.

I have heard Brent is working hard and doing the things needed to get elected, but like you I am a bit surprised of where people think things are and what the odds are.

[AAllen]

Now a follow up, what does all the long posts mean.  We are in a position to make a major change in the Legislature this year.  One that will give us at least 2 years to get some thing accomplished.  But there are a couple major hurdles to clear and the only way to do that is for everyone here to not only get out and vote but get out and support those candidates that will be supporting us.

The PAF is going to be doing something we have never done before because of the financial support you have given, and we need that to continue, but we need everyone that can to find a way to help out our candidates.  They are all sending chasers, cards or letters to early voters trying to get their vote at the last minute, that takes time addressing and getting them out.  The last 10 days or so they will be doing hard pushes to get the vote out, contacting voters they would expect to support them to get them to the polls, most of this is phone calls and I will be sharing some info on how you can help with some of those efforts soon.


But in the mean time contact campaigns that are close to you and see what you can do to help.  It's not about raising money for the campaigns now (though there is still some of that going on) but about manpower and getting the message out, something each of us can do.

[AAllen]

A good article on a couple of the key races and where the money comes from: http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/

[FarmerRick]

A good article on a couple of the key races and where the money comes from: http://watchdog.org/140778/ne-six-figure/

The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. 

[AAllen]

The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. 

Not only are their pockets deep but they turn their members out to help candidates and have close ties to financially secure members of the Democratic Party and can induce them to give large amounts of cash to people the Union supports.

[Wymore Wrangler]

I just spoke with Roy Baker on the phone and asked why he hadn't filled out the NFOA questionnaire.  He wasn't aware of the impact of the NFOA and I explained my views of the organization, he was out of state and said he would look at our questionnaire when he gets home...  I also told him he it could possibly define him against his opponent...

[GreyGeek]

The Teachers Union has pretty deep pockets. 

I was a member of the Clarks Education Association, a chapter of the NEA, for 10 years.  I was elected during the last nine of those years to represent the teachers in the negotiations with the board for raises, supplies, etc., and to stand with teachers whom the board had issues with.    I haven't been a member of the NEA since 1980, when I left teaching to start my consulting business.   However, back then the teacher elected to be the NEA president wasn't really in charge of anything important.  The office was titular.  The holder was trotted out at dog&pony shows to present the illusion that the teachers controlled the NEA.   Nothing could be farther from the truth.   The political agenda and the driving force were the full time STAFF members and the board.   The Clarks Ed Assc at the time I was a member was split like the country was, and is today, about half were liberal and the other half conservative.  However, the Nebraska Education Association, like the National Education Association, never supported conservative political candidates or issues.   Conservatives share of the dues money was spent supporting political positions they opposed.   It's the same with with labor unions.

[Lmbass14]

Thanks for all the information everyone.  A real eye opener.

[AAllen]

GreyGeek brings up a very important point, the NEA and in some cases the local union is separate from the teachers, the Union often does things entirely different that what the individuals, even the majority of individuals, want.  This goes for many other trade and other unions as well, the STAFF has a position and uses the money of the union members as they feel is correct then tell the union member what they should think and how they should vote.  Unfortunately too many fall into the low information voter pool, not because they cant understand the issues, because they only listen to what those they pay to research these things for them say.

[AAllen]

Spent lots of time going over races this afternoon with some of my contacts getting facts so I can make final determinations what and how the NFOA-PAF should be involved.  Lots of bad news based upon what is being seen from early voting info, especially in Congressional District 2.  If there is a candidate or candidates there that you support they need your assistance now more than ever.  Some of the races that people thought our guy would win handily are looking like they could go the other way, lots of little details coming and everything is liquid but its not looking the same today as it was just a couple days ago.

Money is not what most of the candidates need right now they need assistance, boots on the ground, to try to turn things around.  They need to get their voters to vote and help shopping for any loose votes they can find.

[Husker_Fan]

I have not seen Lee's camp this nervous before. I spoke with one person who is worried the "good time" ads being run against Ashford will backfire as more of the problems in the department are being uncovered and reported.

[jFader]

I am still hopeful that the Republicans will show up in force on election day....I just read this article detailing how the Democrats outnumber republicans 3-1 in early voting....apparently every registered Democrat got a mailer from their party with a form to apply to vote early....wait to drop the ball Nebraska Rebublican Party!

Here is a scary thought....how many years until Nebraska is a solid purple state? Factor in the # of youth leaning left, the influx of illeagal aliens, & the ever growing welfare system! Blah

[GreyGeek]

The Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, D-Steve Lathrop, is trying to use his position to harass the Gov and AG.
http://watchdog.org/176775/nebraska-governor/?roi=echo3-22815265799-22922459-a68da58c5912183f982f31b9da5f6227

The chairman of a legislative committee investigating prison scandals said Friday it’s possible Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman, Attorney General Jon Bruning and other top Heineman officials could be subpoenaed to testify before the committee about how the state responded to miscalculated prison sentences.
...
“That will be up to the committee but I think that’s something we’ll talk about,” Lathrop said.
..
Kenney testified Friday that despite being told by his chief legal counsel, George Green, he had no legal basis for allowing those inmates to return home, he forged ahead. Green later retired rather than face termination proceedings for his involvement in the sentence miscalculations.

Green outlined his concerns in a memo to deputy corrections director Larry Wayne on July 31, and gave a copy to Kenney.

Green’s notes, which were turned over to the prisons committee, indicated the governor, attorney general and other high-placed people in Heineman’s administration were at a meeting where Kenney’s placement program was discussed.

Politics is a blood sport.

[bkoenig]

I am still hopeful that the Republicans will show up in force on election day....I just read this article detailing how the Democrats outnumber republicans 3-1 in early voting....apparently every registered Democrat got a mailer from their party with a form to apply to vote early....wait to drop the ball Nebraska Rebublican Party!

Here is a scary thought....how many years until Nebraska is a solid purple state? Factor in the # of youth leaning left, the influx of illeagal aliens, & the ever growing welfare system! Blah

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the Republican Party in Nebraska has taken it for granted for too long that this is a red state, and they just don't try very hard.  Meanwhile, the D's are out hustling and outspending them on a heck of a lot of local races.  And local races are what really matter, even if they're not as sexy.  It'll really suck if the Legislature is controlled by Democrats the next time districts are redrawn.