NFOA MEMBERS FORUM
General Categories => Newsworthy => Topic started by: GreyGeek on April 30, 2013, 08:40:29 AM
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge)
Whether it is due to the recent governmental attempt to enforce assorted gun controlling measures in the aftermath of the Newtown, CT shooting, or, merely driven by the same catalyst that saw a surge in gun sales four years ago, namely the presidential election, one thing is certain: America is weaponizing itself at an unheard of pace, with both Sturm, Ruger shipments and units produced surpassing 500,000 each in one quarter for the first time in history.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/04/Ruger%20Backlog_2_0.jpg)
Or, could Americans be preparing themselves for what many believe is coming ... civil unrest?
This story stood out with me because my wife and I were eating out with a few friends and two who were among them, who hold PhD's in psychology and who make a living as mental health counselors, suddenly revealed they were concerned about their safety and asked if I knew anything about guns. It seems that the part of town where they own a house and have lived for over 30 years has run down and is now a high crime area. And, although they cannot prescribe SSRI's, they work with doctors who do, and the mental states of some of their patients concerns them. They were talking about getting .357 revolvers. Knowing her hand strength I suggested a .22 or .38 compact semi-auto pistol. We went through the steps necessary to get a CHP and how much it would cost. Then I laid the big bomb on them. Good luck getting either guns or ammo in today's market unless they were willing to pay 3X to 5X what were normal prices. That didn't seem to phase them. They were serious.
It isn't just "rural Americans bitterly clinging to their guns and religion". Most in rural America already own guns. The new buyers are coming from urban areas.
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I think the data indicates that Americans are buying lots of guns. Making generalized conclusions beyond that is probably not very productive. The notion of "preparing for war" suggests an organized, coordinated effort. I tend to look for the simplest explanations -- The President and the anti-gun left have made a public and determined effort to impose more restrictions on gun ownership. In light of that clear fact, people are looking to acquire firearms before it becomes more difficult or not possible in certain areas.
I'm sure there are a few people out there who believe in their own minds that they are "preparing for war." I think most gun buyers (myself included) are making an rational decision to purchase weapons in light of looming restrictions. The reasons for those purchases are likely as varied as the people buying them.
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Given the Federal Government's insane fiscal policies, yes, I believe we're in for a bumpy ride in the next decade.
This insanity cannot be funded indefinitely.
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I think most gun buyers (myself included) are making an rational decision to purchase weapons in light of looming restrictions. The reasons for those purchases are likely as varied as the people buying them.
I agree. The author of the article was probably being melodramatic. But, I believe as many people are buying guns for personal protection because of what they foresee as potential social unrest as are buying them because they think the Leftists are trying to ban them. The second reason doesn't make sense. As Feinstien has pointed out so willingly, IF SHE COULD she'd force all Americans to give up ALL their guns. In order to keep them when they are being confiscated the new buyers would have to hide them. But, the info forwarded in the NICS check, which I am sure is being saved by the ATF, would identify them as gun owners and when the armed troops came to demand the weapons what would they say? They lost them in a boating accident, or someone stole them? I doubt that would buy them any time and probably tag them as potential "terrorists", as would anyone who owned a gun would be tagged in such an environment as the Left desires.
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Part of me wonders if the ammo buying spree by DHS isn't also due to the expectation of widespread civil unrest, rather than a nefarious plot to buy up all the ammo or round us up into FEMA camps :).
The welfare gravy train can't go on forever, and when the government teat goes dry I'm afraid urban areas could get nasty.
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Part of me wonders if the ammo buying spree by DHS isn't also due to the expectation of widespread civil unrest, rather than a nefarious plot to buy up all the ammo or round us up into FEMA camps :).
The welfare gravy train can't go on forever, and when the government teat goes dry I'm afraid urban areas could get nasty.
I think you are giving the federal government too much credit. Government spends money because it can, it rarely goes much beyond that. If authorization to buy 7 billion rounds made it through the system, that's what they'd do. No government agency will EVER give something back unless directed.
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J. Carson said as a joke, many years ago, there was a nationwide toilet paper shortage. Over night, there was a run on toilet paper that lasted weeks, everywhere was sold out.
The more people worried about not being able to get guns and ammo, the more people purchase what they do not need, just to have it.
Publish a nationwide story of 200 warehouses full of ammo, that cannot be sold because all the stores are full, and the ammo shortage would be over in a day, as people would quit buying. .
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It's a concern with noting, but over sensationalizing it is silly at this point.
Outside of the silly petitions to secede .... there hasn't been much to hint at 'organized civil unrest'.
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Zero hedge's spin is silly and sensationalist. However.... follow the "10-Q" link at the bottom of the blog to the actual SEC filing, and the underlying data and facts in Ruger's submission contain the really good stuff.
The numbers and facts in that quarterly report are simply staggering. Quote: “Our backlog at December 31, 2012, which totaled 1.5 million units, already represented approximately nine months of production at our current build rates, despite the significant year-over-year increase in our capacity. For reference, the backlog at December 31, 2011 was 337,000 units.” :o
Wow!! If you invested in Facebook, you picked the wrong industry!!
Really, I think the growth in the industry is wonderful and I'm happy for all the Ruger, Hornady, etc. workers, but as a consumer this doesn't bode well for the ammo shortage ending any time soon.
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but as a consumer this doesn't bode well for the ammo shortage
Indeed. Scaling up the 2008 episode to overlay the present one and it looks like it will be the fall of 2015 before we climb back out of this. IF another Leftist is elected president it could be 2020 or later.
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Indeed. Scaling up the 2008 episode to overlay the present one and it looks like it will be the fall of 2015 before we climb back out of this. IF another Leftist is elected president it could be 2020 or later.
Maybe, but on the other hand the free market hates for supply and demand to be out of disequilibrium. The supply curve for highly regulated and politically charged items like firearms may be "sticky" and "price inelastic" (i.e. new manufacturers can't just spring up overnight, even if we consumers would support an unknown gun manufacturer) so we have to rely on known gunmakers expanding production capacity.
However, the ammo supply curve should be more elastic. Looking at how quickly ammo items come and go off of www.gunbot.net (http://www.gunbot.net), I see consumers are absolutely willing to take their chances on relatively new ammo companies, just so long as the price per round is cheap in price. For your friends wanting to get a self defense weapon, there is really no "shortage" of ultra-premium SD loads. I see Federal Hydra-Shoks, Buffalo Bore loads, Speer Gold Dots and Golden Sabers (basically, all the stuff that has always been sold in 20-round packs) going for the same price/round as ever. It's the 50-round boxes (or cases) of cheap ammo that sells out in one minute, regardless of brand.
What all the manufacturers are probably asking is whether the surge in demand is extremely temporary, or longer lasting.
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I think it is all of the above.
Professional economists are screaming doom and gloom, but they make money from it.
Look at some of the shows on the tube, Revolution and Preppers come to mind.
Then the looney gun grabbers like Bloomberg, Fienstein etc who admit they think they know what is best for us, so they should have guns, but we should not.
Here in Mobile AL we had two cold blooded killings for no reason other than they were white. White Americans were ok with it when blacks kill each other, but those murders really shocked us.
And then there is the government in general. I know more people that fear the government than fear Muslim extremists! So does that make the US government the largest terrorist organization in the world? And their arrogance about who is supposd to be serving who is apalling, from my garbage man to the president.
And last but not least, the idiots that voted these people into office. They want us disarmed "for the children", while continuing to murder a defenseless unborn child every NINE SECONDS. Whether we realize it or not, that sort of illogical thinking leads to a certain amount of distrust for those who are even semi awake.
So is there a reason, no there are a bunch of reasons. And when I cannot make sense of it all I rely on my prime law of logic which is, "when an intelligent person cannot understand the actions of those around him, someone is either lying or hiding all the facts."
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i'm not preparing for war, but should it come I'll be ready.
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i'm not preparing for war, but should it come I'll be ready.
220, 221
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i'm not preparing for war, but should it come I'll be ready.
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Revolution
And then comes this headline:
http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/poll-29-registered-voters-believe-armed-revolution-might-be-necessary
Twenty-nine percent of registered voters think that an armed revolution might be necessary in the next few years in order to protect liberties, according to a Public Mind poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
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And then comes this headline:
http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/poll-29-registered-voters-believe-armed-revolution-might-be-necessary (http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/poll-29-registered-voters-believe-armed-revolution-might-be-necessary)
Sigh. I hate pollsters.
The poll, which surveyed 863 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/-3.4, focused on both gun control and the possibility of a need for an armed revolution in the United States to protect liberty.
863 folks, eh ? 863 out of around 130-160M registered voters.
No thanks.
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863 out of around 130-160M registered voters.
Then you'd LOVE the poll that the LSM are touting which claims that more than 90% of Americans want gun background checks. The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,772 registered voters by phone. It all depends on how you word the question ... in this case a "push poll":
1) In order to prevent criminals, terrorists and the mentally deranged from easily obtaining firearms, do you support or oppose Legislation that requires background checks be completed on every person that attempts to acquire a firearm?
Put like that most Americans would say yes. But, if the question werein such a way that is actually representative of what the defeated Manchin-Toomey Amendment would have made law:
In an effort to make it more difficult for criminals, the mentally ill and possibly terrorists from obtaining weapons, do you support or oppose Legislation that would require mandatory background checks for every person attempting to acquire a firearm , even during private sales, trades or transfers amongst people that are well known to each other, such as co-workers, distant relatives, long time neighbors and or friends, even though numerous studies have shown that criminals most often obtain their weapons from black market sales and from theft then any other source ?
then only the LSM based Senators, i.e., the Dems and RHINOs, would have voted for it, which is why it failed.
Now, the "pollsters" are pushing the idea that those who voted against the Manchin-Toomey Amendment are "suffering" at the polls. This is an obvious political campaign by the LSM leading up to a possible attempt to get the Senate to re-hear the gun bill, in hopes of scaring the no-voters into saying yes in order to "save their jobs".
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https://plus.google.com/u/0/107839599438746451936/posts/QGABXNCfems (https://plus.google.com/u/0/107839599438746451936/posts/QGABXNCfems)
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Jerry, I don't mind you promoting your blog, but a post needs to have something more than a link in it, or I become hesitant to click it
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Jerry, I don't mind you promoting your blog, but a post needs to have something more than a link in it, or I become hesitant to click it
Indeed, I ignored the link because there was no description associated with it :/
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Jerry, I don't mind you promoting your blog, but a post needs to have something more than a link in it, or I become hesitant to click it
Fair enough. In that G+ posting I linked to the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine) article in which some anti-gun advocates were funded by an unknown donor to do a poll. Here are my full comments:
Jerry L KrepsMay 4, 2013 (edited) - Public
During the gun debate in the Senate a poll was released claiming that 90% of all Americans were in favor of background checks. It was actually 89.9% of the group that didn't own guns. The exact questions given to the 2,703 that were selected "after a pilot study" were not made available but a footnote stated that they were "informed" that most background checks take just a few minutes BUT that in some cases it could take more than the 3 day maximum that the current law allows. Reports of the study did not mention that only 69% (1,865) responded to the telephone poll. The authors did reveal that they didn't make any money on the poll, even though they didn't reveal the identity of the donor who funded the poll. Polls usually give results the people who pay for them want, or they never see the light of day. This poll was dressed up in the usual statistical terms, chi-squared statements, etc... It's a statistical analysis, right? So it has to be the truth.
As I've pointed out before, it is also interesting that those who made the telephone calls and analyzed the results are not disinterested 3rd parties. They have a horse in this race and they are whipping it as hard as they can. They are Colleen L. Barry, Ph.D., M.P.P., Emma E. McGinty, M.S., Jon S. Vernick, J.D., M.P.H., and Daniel W. Webster, Sc.D., M.P.H. Google them and see what they've said before on this issue. Books, articles, papers ... all pushing for more than just background checks or government databases. And they have the audacity to complain that when the NRA or the GOA publish data which contradicts their polls that those organizations are biased, bought off, corporate tools, etc... That NEJM poll has been widely and repeatedly quoted in the MNM as "proof" that Senators voting against the bill were "out of touch" with their constituents. The blatant biases are also never mentioned in the MNM echo chamber.
Now, the polling technique is being used yet again in an attempt to intimidate Senators who voted against the bill by claiming that their constituents were mad at them for not voting for the bill. GMA (ABC) gave a report about this "wide spread constituent protest" and in an inadvertent camera sweep of the "crowd" doing the protesting we could plainly see that the "crowd" consisted of half a dozen people standing on the sidewalk outside the district office of one Senator. It remains to be seen if the the Senators have the courage to stick to their principles and the wishes of the real majority of their constituents.
Another poll was taken a month ago by the PoliceOne website (http://ddq74coujkv1i.cloudfront.net/p1_gunsurveysummary_2013.pdf (http://ddq74coujkv1i.cloudfront.net/p1_gunsurveysummary_2013.pdf)), which is devoted to active police officers around the country:
More than 15,000 officers completed the survey, which was promoted by PoliceOne exclusively to its 400,000 registered members, comprised of verified law enforcement professionals. Only current, former or retired law enforcement personnel were eligible to participate in the survey. The survey sample size was broadly distributed by geography and rank in proportion to the U.S. law enforcement community at large. Respondents comprised a variety of ranks from departments of all sizes, with the majority representing departments of greater than 500 officers. Of those that took the survey, 80 percent were current law enforcement officers and 20 percent were former/retired law enforcement.
FBI statistics state that in 2009 there were 706,886 officers enforcing the law in the USA. http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/data/table_74.html (http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/data/table_74.html) So, the survey isn't a microscopic sample of hundreds of millions of people, it sampled 2.1% of the entire police force in this country. Had the NEJM poll sampled a proportional number they would have phoned 14 million people.
The survey taken by PoliceOne wasn't preceded by a "pilot study", its questions were revealed when the results were revealed, they didn't "push" the questions, and they didn't do any statistical massaging of the results. The survey wasn't funded by a secret donor, they funded it themselves.
That survey also tells you what the vast majority of police officers think about the issues surrounding the gun control debate. Over 60% of the respondents had a rank above "officer".(Q3)
91.3% support the concealed carry of firearms by civilians who have not been
convicted of a felony and/or not been deemed psychologically/medically incapable. (Q10)
91.4% believe that use of a firearm while perpetrating a crime should result in stiff, mandatory sentences with no plea bargains. (Q13)
70% do not support the concept of a national database tracking all legal gun sales.(Q11)
79.7% do not think that a federal law prohibiting private, non-dealer transfers of firearms between individuals would reduce violent crime(Q7)
71% do not think a federal ban on manufacture and sale of some semi-automatic
firearms, termed by some as "assault weapons," would have any effect on reducing violent crime.
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Thanks Jerry. I really only wanted a brief description of the links contents, and I am going to be cracking down on the "drive by" posts and the duplicate postings as I can find the time
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I think America is preparing for civil war, and Americans are bracing for it.
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I think America is preparing for civil war, and Americans are bracing for it.
Most Americans have no clue about any conditions which would lead one to believe that a civil war was on the horizon. They are not as sensitive to the erosion of our Bill of Rights as we are. And, those that are don't seem to care as long as Uncle Sam sends them their monthly checks. BUT, a large number (most?) Americans do see the our country circling the drain of financial ruin. and see civil unrest as a logical outcome. Service jobs at fast food joints and retail stores do not give wages from which income taxes can be extracted that support growth in this country. Indeed, such a base cannot even support infrastructure maintenance. They see our roads, bridges, sewer systems and electrical systems breaking down, while government taxes at all levels rise, with the money being given to those who claim some sort of "disability" which prevents them from working but not playing golf, or surfing the Internet, or going to Las Vegas. Those who are working are now supporting over 10 million who are not, and 48% of Americans are on food stamps.
Americans see their friends and neighbors lose their home and move out of the neighborhood, the home remaining in bank foreclosure, empty, and beginning to decay, becoming the haunts of animals and drug abusers. They see more and more people are falling out of the middle class, and some out of the 1% class, creating a larger and larger gulf between the very poor and the very rich. The middle class, the bedrock of this country, is fast disappearing. The only "growth" industry they see are the Congressmen or Senators who are stuffing their pockets.
Most Americans now believe that an economic collapse is inevitable. The only question is "how soon?" They know that during times of economic instability in the past civil unrest broke out and people needed firearms to protect them and their property from roving gangs or thugs and thieves. The next unrest will include roving groups of people who are starving and are searching for food, clothing, firearms and ammunition, in addition to the criminals looking for quick riches. That is what they are arming for. Most would not fire on the police, national guard or army, knowing that they would be killed by superior firepower coming back at them.
What about those who would fight our increasingly socialist government in an attempt to restore the Constitution? That doesn't look too bright either. Most active combat requires people in good physical condition, usually between the ages of 17 and 45 or 50. Most Americans over 45 are too physically out of shape to be combatants. Most Americans under 45 are the product of our educational institutions, which have been subverted since about 1980, when "educators" started teaching our kids that our Founding Fathers were "DWEM"s -- dead white european males, pilgrims were serial killers, etc...
So, who's going to do all the shooting? People over 50? I can write letters and post articles all day long, day after day, but tote a rifle, ammo, food, water, spare clothing, tent and other gear week after week, fight after fight? Only after Hell freezes over.
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not all Americans are bracing for it, but even Gov Fishery dept ordered tens of thousands of rounds of hot hollow point .40 S&W ammo, it shows the gov is preparing for something.
I have a friend that is a retired police chief. I think the world of this guy. Before he was a police chief, he was in the gov as an intelligence officer. This guy is no dummy. What does he have in his back yard? He has a concrete and heavy steel fortified bunker, that looks to be over built for inclement weather in Nebraska. When I ask him, what is up with the bunker, he says, you never know when one might need one, and he just laughs.
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Most Americans now believe that an economic collapse is inevitable.
I personally would qualify your statement "over the age of 40". Younger that, you are dealing MOSTLY with minds of mush. Certainly younger than 30.....
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I personally would qualify your statement "over the age of 40". Younger that, you are dealing MOSTLY with minds of mush. Certainly younger than 30.....
I agree, and I did. Later on in that post I wrote:
Most Americans under 45 are the product of our educational institutions, which have been subverted since about 1980, when "educators" started teaching our kids that our Founding Fathers were "DWEM"s -- dead white european males, pilgrims were serial killers, etc...
45 years ago is 1968. The year after Johnson's "Great Society" Act was passed. It included elements which called for re-writing our social studies books, etc... Anyone born on that year or after would enter into middle school around 1978, and high school in 1981. I resigned in 1980 from a rural high school after 10 years of teaching science and math. I was, for 9 of those years, the negotiator for the school's chapter of the NEA. I related in another post how, while defending a 1st year art teacher and reaching an impasse with the board, I agreed to arbitration. The NEA sent a guy who immediately went into executive session with the board. When he came out he said the "bad news" was that the teacher had to go. The "good" news was that the board was adopting something the NEA called "Education 2000", educational goals for our kids for the future. Which would have been 10 years ago from our current time line. That curriculum was the first to undermine the Constitution and denigrate the work of the founders of America. Most of it has been removed from libraries and websites but many of its authors and supporters have "curriculum vitae" on line which mention their work on that series of textbooks.
So, anyone who attended middle school, high school or college after 1970 got good doses of Liberal re-writing of American History, civics and stopped getting educated on our form of government, a republic, and the three legs of that make it stable --- executive, legislative and judicial, all built on the notion that when ANY Federal or State officer takes an oath of office they SWEAR that they will "uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic..." and that they take that defense "willingly and without mental reservations or purpose of evasion". At least half of our elected representatives lied while taking their oath of office.
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I do not think it is inevitable. However, if a bus driver is aiming at a large tree, passengers on the bus will follow him to the accident scene,
It is like the leaders of this country are pointing the bus towards a big tree with their foot on the gas. I swear they are trying to wreck the economy.
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I swear they are trying to wreck the economy.
Based on their actions I believe that is a valid conclusion.
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Trying? Looks like pretty decent sucess at the moment.
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First press arrives Saturday. In preparation, brass, primers, powders and those marvelous bullets have judiciously trickled in by the thousands. Dad-in-Law saw the new carbine last weekend and stammered, "I guess it's not the time to be buyin' a rabbit gun."
I think I'm going to give 50-round gifts to our circle of high school grads this year, if I can master the press in time. Preparing? Sure... Obamacare ain't the only train wreck out there.
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AFAIK, you can *give* them away, but ya can't *sell* them.
Be weary of legal terms and other such things concerning ammo & components manufacture.
Buutttttt....
One of us
One of us
One of us
One of us
*cough*
Plenty of us hand load around here, if ya need help just holler in the help or reloading forums :)
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This may be the best thread to ask this question:
Do you have to remove the foil hat before taking a shower (in non-fluoridated water of course) or should it be left on?
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Do you have to remove the foil hat before taking a shower (in non-fluoridated water of course) or should it be left on?
You probably shouldn't shower, your bucket will overflow!